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Friday, May 14, 2010
May-14 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2682 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2517 and closed at 1.2533. The bias is bearish in nearest term. However note that 1.2500 might be a significant support at this phase as we know the last time price hit that area, it made an upside correction to 1.3093. Immediate support at 1.2460 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.2386 region before testing 1.2300. Initial resistance at 1.2605. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2685 but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after failed to consistently move above 1.4900 resistance, bottomed at 1.4594 and closed at 1.4611. As you can see on my h1 chart below price is now convincingly move below the major trendline support indicating bearish view targeting 1.4475 area. However CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.4680. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction towards 1.4760 but I still prefer a bearish outlook with short on rallies strategy at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. As you can see on my h1 chart below price still struggling around the minor trendline resistance without significant momentum indicating no clear direction so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think I will stay away from this pair for now. Expected range at 93.75 – 91.71.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. As you can see on my h4 chart below price slipped above 1.1175 indicating potential bullish view testing 1.1250 region. Note that we need a consistent move above 1.1250 area to confirm further bullish scenario. Below that area I think price still vulnerable for any downside movement. Immediate support at 1.1105. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.1045 area and lead us back to a boring range trading condition of 1.1175 – 1.0888.


EURJPY Forecast
As you can see on my h1 chart below, the EURJPY slipped below the lower line of range area indicating potential bearish view testing 114.50. However price made a minor upside correction earlier today in Asian session, traded around 116.40 at the time I wrote this comment. At the same time, CCI already in oversold area and heading up indicating some potential upside pullback. I think we have to be careful here because we know market is very tricky lately. Immediate support at 115.40. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 114.50. Another movement back inside the range area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear, testing 118.70 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made a significant bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below 135.70 indicating potential bearish view but made a minor upside retracement earlier today in Asian session testing 135.70. Technically, an upside pullback testing a resistance (former broken support) line is often happen, but if price move back above 135.70 may show limited bearishness and lead us back into no trading zone. Patient is what we need the most at this condition. Immediate support at 134.60 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 133.12 before testing 129.89. Initial resistance at 136.50 followed by 137.30 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped above the trendline resistance yesterday, but so far unable to move consistently above the trendline as price still struggling around the trendline. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact could potentially produced a false breakout scenario which usually trigger significant downside scenario where 0.8880 remains a bearish target. Immediate resistance at 0.9000. Consistent move above that area should trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9100 region.

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