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Tuesday, May 11, 2010
May-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3093 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2758 and closed at 1.2784. On h1 chart below we can see that price is now testing the lower line of the minor bullish channel and struggling around the major weekly trendline support indicating critical technical phase. A violation to the minor bullish channel and another movement below the major trendline support could trigger further weakness for the Euro. Immediate support at 1.2715. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2640 before re-testing 1.2500 region. Initial resistance at 1.2850. Break above that area could trigger another upside pullback testing 1.2900 – 1.3000 area but the main scenario remains bearish.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD slipped above the trendline resistance yesterday, topped at 1.5052 but whipsawed to the downside, closed lower at 1.4844 and now back below the trendline in a high volatile and indecisive market but this fact should keep the major bearish outlook intact. Immediate support at 1.4770. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4700 even 1.4550 – 1.4500 region. Initial resistance at 1.4920/30 region. Another upside pullback above that area could trigger bullish momentum testing 1.5000 – 1.5050 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but as you can see on my h1 chart below the bullish pressure found a good resistance around the minor trendline resistance (yellow). The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a clear break above the minor trendline resistance to continue the bullish scenario testing 93.75 and 94.70 region. Immediate support at 92.50/60 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure towards 91.71 before re-testing the major trendline support.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1250 area especially if price able to break above 1.1175 today but overall price still trapped in range area of 1.1175 – 1.0888. We need a consistent move above 1.1250 to continue the bullish scenario at least testing 1.3000/30 region. Immediate support at 1.1025. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0888 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 122.27 but whipsawed to the downside and closed at 119.26. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential end to the bullish correction especially if price able to break below 118.35 area targeting 117.50 before re-testing 113.62 and 110.66. Immediate resistance at 120.15 region. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but as you can see on my daily chart below the trendline resistance (former support) did a good job preventing further upside pressure, keep the bearish scenario intact. Immediate support at 137.50. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure towards 135.50 before re-testing 129.89 region. Initial resistance at 139.40 area. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price still move inside the minor bullish channel indicating the bullish correction scenario remains intact but seems to lack of momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone for now. Immediate support 0.8950. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8880 region. Initial resistance at 0.9100 – 0.9150 area.

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