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Thursday, May 13, 2010
May-13 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2738 but closed lower at 1.2614 and traded around 1.2637 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. Immediate resistance at 1.2690. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.2750 – 1.2800 region. Initial support at 1.2523/00 region. Consistent move below that area should continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.2300 area in longer term view.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5043 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4818 and closed at 1.4823. On h4 chart below we can see that price cross up and down the major trendline support in a high volatile market indicating unclear direction and intense battle between buyer and seller around the trendline area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.4900. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5000 – 1.5050 region. Initial support at 1.4750. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4680 before re-testing 1.4500 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is moving above the minor trendline resistance indicating upside view but we have not seen significant bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 93.75. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 94.70 area. Initial support at 92.44 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area and another movement below the minor trendline resistance could trigger further bearish pressure testing 92.00 – 91.71 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 1.1175 – 1.0888. The bias remains neutral in both medium and nearest term. Immediate support remains at 1.1045. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0950 region. Initial resistance at 1.1175. Consistent move above that area should trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.1250 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price trapped in range area of 118.70 – 116.60. The bias in neutral in nearest term. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Breakout above 118.70 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 121.35 while breakdown below 116.60 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 114.50.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone for now. On daily chart below we can see that price still move below the trendline indicating medium bearish view remains intact but need a clear break below 135.70 to continue the bearish scenario re-testing 129.89 area. Expected range at 140.50 – 135.70.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as you can see on h1 chart below price is now testing the trendline resistance. Breakout above the trendline could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.9075 area. Immediate support at 0.8928 (current low) followed by 0.8880.

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