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Thursday, May 27, 2010
May-27 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2167 and closed at 1.2173. I said that the candle in the circle could give us a clue, and it did. Although we saw some upside attempts, price finally going down after the candle closed below 38.2% Fibo. This fact should keep the bearish scenario targeting 1.2000 area intact. However price is already oversold so watch out for potential upside correction. Immediate resistance at 1.2250. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2293 and 1.2364 resistance area but I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, still trapped in range area of 1.4527 – 1.4240 as you can see on h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price still consolidate but the main scenario remains to the downside especially if price able to break below 1.4240 targeting 1.4000 region. On the other hand break above 1.4527 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. The best strategy in nearest term is to short around 1.4527 or long around 1.4240 with tight stop loss.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY slipped above 90.50 yesterday but still unable to stay consistently above the range area (90.50 – 89.00). So we are still trapped in a boring market and need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. There is no significant momentum yet so direction is still unclear. Aggressive traders can short around 90.50 or long around 89.00 with a tight stop loss.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price is still in consolidation phase in the last several days but still within a major bullish scenario. I made adjustment to the range area and the range area now is between 1.4450 – 1.1695 as price has been moving in that area since May 19. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. In nearest term the best strategy is to short around 1.1695 or long around 1.1445 with tight stop loss.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish scenario yesterday, bottomed at 109.40 and closed at 109.44. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 108.83. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 104.08 in longer term view. However price already in oversold area so watch out for potential upside correction testing 110.66. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone but as long as price move inside the bearish channel I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, still trapped in range area of 130.80 – 128.00 but still within a major bearish scenario. We have no significant technical movement so far, so there is nothing more to say about this pair for now. We need a consistent move below 128.00 could resume the major bearish scenario testing 126.75 region. On the other hand, a break above 130.80 could trigger further upside correction testing 132.80 region. Aggressive traders may short around 130.80 or long around 128.00 with tight stop loss.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped above the range area yesterday, but price so far unable to stay above the range area. This fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger a bearish momentum re-testing 0.8070 area. On the other hand, a clear break above 0.8360 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario testing at least 0.8500 region. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside.

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