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Friday, June 4, 2010
June-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the bearish channel but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2152 and closed at 1.2160. On h4 chart below we can see that this is the case of a false breakout which usually trigger a significant bearish pressure especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2150 support area targeting 1.2111 before testing 1.2000. Immediate resistance at 1.2230/50 area. Break above that area could trigger another upside pullback testing 1.2325/50 region. The major bearish scenario pass another test and seems ready to challenge psychological strong support area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.4587 and closed at 1.4612 after unable to stay consistently above 1.4720. On h4 chart below we can see price is now struggling around the bullish channel lower line indicating critical technical phase. A clear break below the bullish channel could be seen as the end of the bullish correction phase and resume its major bearish scenario at least testing 1.4450 area. However note that as long as the bullish channel hold, the upside correction scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.4720. Break above that area should keep the bullish correction scenario intact testing 1.4865 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 92.80 and closed at 92.70. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 93.00 area targeting 94.00/20 region. Immediate support at 92.50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 92.00 area but I still prefer a bullish scenario with buy on dips strategy at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made another boring movement yesterday. I have no further comments about this boring pair and still waiting for a break from the range area before open any position. A clear break below 1.1445 could be seen a a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing at least 1.1300 area. On the other hand, another upside attempt above 1.1695 should keep the major bullish scenario intact at least testing 1.1750 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. Overall price still in consolidation phase after significant bearish movement, trapped in range area of 114.50 – 108.83. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, we have a rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern especially if price able to break below the formation testing 108.83 area. On the upside, only a movement above 114.50 could be a serious threat to the major bearish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. We are still in bullish correction phase as price still move inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below but need a clear break above 136.75 to continue the upside scenario testing 139.50 region. Immediate support at 134.54 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 133.20 area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel the upside correction scenario remains intact.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8521 but closed lower at 0.8444. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and price still trapped in range area of 0.8550 – 0.8275 but the rejection to move above 0.8550 yesterday could give a downside pressure today. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 0.8550 could trigger further upside momentum testing 0.8715 area while a break below 0.8275 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8070 region.

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