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Thursday, September 30, 2010
Sept-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3645 and closed at 1.3624. Overall we are still in strong bullish phase targeting 1.3700 – 1.3800 area this week especially if price make another breakout above 1.3645. As you can see on h4 chart below, CCI about to cross the 100 level indicates potential minor bearish correction testing 1.3550 – 1.3500 support area. In the last two weeks price bullish movement is characterized by breakout – consolidation – breakout patterns. So right now, with CCI start to show potential downside pullback re-testing zero level, we may be in another consolidation phase but short position is not recommended. Only a movement below 1.3500 and violation to the bullish channel could diminish the bullish outlook and trigger further bearish correction.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We are still in strong bullish phase and I still prefer a bullish scenario but need a clear break above 1.5900 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6000. On the downside, key support level remains around 1.5728 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could diminish the bullish outlook testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in the context of major strong bearish scenario targeting 0.9647 especially if break below 0.9730. I have made adjustment to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 0.9814 (yesterday’s high) and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction but as long as price stay below 0.9931 I think we are still in strong bearish phase.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday but still able to stay below 84.00 and made a lower low on daily chart indicates the rounding top bearish scenario remains intact targeting 82.87. Another pullback above 84.00 could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the rounding top bearish scenario. Fundamental focus still about the potential intervention by the Japanese government to stop further Yen appreciation.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in a major strong bullish outlook as long as price keep moving inside the bullish channel targeting 114.73. CCI just cross the 100 line as you can see on my h4 chart below indicates potential downside correction testing 113.35 and the lower line of the bullish channel. A violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook testing 112.67 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price still trapped between 23.6% – 50% Fibo retracement. The major scenario remains bullish re-testing 135.03 but the bias remains neutral in nearest term and we need a break from range area to see clearer direction. Aggressive traders may long around 131.70 (50% level ) or short around 133.55 (23.6% level) with tight stop loss.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in major strong bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849 especially if price able to make a strong breakout above 0.9728 today. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart indicates limited bullish momentum with potential bearish correction testing 0.9600 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


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