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Thursday, October 28, 2010
Oct-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3733 but closed higher at 1.3794 and traded around 1.3810 earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. Overall the bearish bias remains intact but no convincing and consistent bearish momentum so far. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.3880/90 area. I still prefer a bearish scenario, but a break above 1.3880/90 could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.3980 – 1.4000. On the downside, immediate support at 1.3778 (current low). Break below that area could continue the bearish pressure testing 1.3700 before targeting 1.3600.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD was unable to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday after good UK GDP data push the pair peaked at 1.5895 on Tuesday. Price violated the minor bullish channel to the downside, bottomed at 1.5729 but closed higher at 1.5789. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.5800. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.5900 area before testing 1.6000. Initial support at 1.5700 – 1.5650 and the lower line of the major bullish channel. Only a violation to the major bullish channel could be a threat to the major bullish scenario as bearish reversal scenario could be produced.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, but still unable to make a clear break above 81.95 so far, traded around 81.62 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in consolidation phase. We need a clear break above 81.95 to continue the bullish momentum testing 82.87. Immediate support at 81.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 80.85/40 area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9928 but closed lower at 0.9892. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase targeting 1.0000. Immediate support at 0.9877. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9800 – 0.9730 support area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains bearish and only a violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 113.27 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 113.75 – 114.65 area. Initial support at 112.21. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 111.60 and 110.00 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. As long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major bearish scenario remains intact but I think we are still in bullish correction phase after good UK GDP on Tuesday testing 129.82 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel (blue channel) and 128.25 area. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 127.62 and 126.43 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped below the bullish channel yesterday, bottomed at 0.9651 but closed higher at 0.9738 and now struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bullish scenario is in a serious threat here, but if price go back inside the bullish channel and consistently above 0.9775 we could have further upside momentum as yesterday’s strong bearish pressure could be just a temporary market reaction after bad CPI number and could produce a false breakdown scenario re-testing 1.0000. Immediate support at 0.9700. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9600 and may give us the validation of technical bearish reversal scenario.

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