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Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Oct-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another inconsistent movement yesterday. Price topped at 1.4079 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3907 and closed at 1.3922. As you can see on my h4 chart below, price is now back inside the bearish channel after slipped above it. Overall the direction remains unclear and price is moving in 1.4158 – 1.3700 range area. While longer time frames show unclear direction, intra-day traders may benefit from shorter time frame like 30 minute – hourly chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance at 1.3970. Break above that area could trigger further short term upside pressure testing 1.4028/50 area. Immediate support at 1.3900. Break below that area could trigger further short term bearish pressure testing 1.3850 – 1.3800.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5771 but closed lower at 1.5708. This fact indicates that although the major bullish scenario remains intact as price still move inside the major bullish channel, the downside pressure is not over yet as price still making lower highs since the fall from 1.6105 and still threatening the major bullish outlook especially if this downside pressure able to push price below the bullish channel and move consistently below 1.5650 testing at least 1.5600 even lower. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5650 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.5750/60 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5800 – 1.5850.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY break below 80.85 yesterday, bottomed at 80.40 and now struggling around 80.85 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 80.00. Another move back above 80.85 could lead us to neutral zone and boring range market again but the major scenario remains bearish and I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Initial resistance remains at 81.95 and only a clear break above that area could trigger further upside recovery.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9662 but closed higher at 0.9733 in a volatile but unclear movement. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel we are still in bullish phase. Immediate support at 0.9650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a threat to the bullish phase. Initial resistance at 0.9750. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9803 and 0.9877 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday after price failed to break above the bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact keeps the major bearish scenario intact. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 111.60. Immediate resistance at the upper line of the bearish channel and 113.75. Break above that area and violation to the bearish channel could be a threat to the current bearish outlook testing 114.65 and 115.65 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish bias yesterday, bottomed at 126.43 and closed at 126.92 and traded around 127.07 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to move below 126.72 targeting 125.28. Immediate resistance at 127.62 area and the trend line resistance (blue). Break above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 128.40/90 area but as long as price moves inside the bearish channel the major scenario remains to the downside.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9973 but closed significantly lower at 0.9894. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the major scenario remains strongly bullish re-testing 1.0000 historical high. Immediate support at 0.9870 followed by 0.9837 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9775 but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains to the upside.

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