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Friday, October 15, 2010
Oct-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4121 but further bullish pressure was rejected, closed lower at 1.4024. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bullish. I have made adjustment to my bullish channel as a reaction to the newest development. Immediate support at 1.3960. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.3910/00 support area but as long as price move inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario. Only a clear move below the bullish channel could be a threat to the current strong bullish outlook and may lead us to consolidation phase again, re-testing 1.3800 support area. Initial resistance at 1.4080. Clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.4120 and 1.4170/90 region.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6066 but closed lower at 1.5985 after found resistance at the upper line of the major bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price still move inside a minor bullish channel (blue) indicates the overall intra-day bullish bias remains intact but the fact that so far price still unable to move consistently above 1.6000 area diminish the strength of the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.5970. Clear break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the minor bullish channel and 1.5900 support area. Initial resistance at 1.6066 (yesterday’s high) where some historical resistances also seen around that level. Clear break above that area could continue the bullish pressure testing 1.6100 and 1.6150.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 80.85 but closed higher at 81.58. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bearish scenario targeting 80.60 and 80.00 especially if price able to make another clear break below 81.36. Immediate resistance at 81.95 and the minor trend line resistance. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 82.87 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.9461 but closed significantly higher at 0.9554. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. We are now entering a consolidation phase where a consistent move above 0.9550 could trigger further bullish correction testing t0.9640 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Immediate support at 1.9500. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 0.9450 before targeting 0.9350 area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price trapped in range area of 113.75 – 114.75. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break on either side to see clearer direction. Break above 114.75 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 115.65 while a break below 113.75 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 112.84.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY slipped below 129.82, but whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 130.42. This fact keeps the bullish correction scenario intact testing 131.75 especially if price able to make a breakout above 131.00 . The main scenario remains to the downside, but need a clear break below 129.82 to continue the bearish scenario testing 128.99 and 128.54.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.9993 but whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 0.9895. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are entering consolidation phase and my wait and see mode is activated but the major scenario remains bullish. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the trend line support. Break below that trend line could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9775. On the upside, we need a break above 0.9993 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.0050.

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