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Monday, October 11, 2010
Oct-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday after US NFP release. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we are still in consolidation phase after strong bullish move. We need another strong break above 1.4028/50 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.4170/90 before targeting 1.4400 this week. On the downside, only a clear break below the bullish channel and 1.3850/00 support area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, slipped below the minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.5823 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5960. This fact keeps the major bullish scenario intact, but need consistent move above 1.6000 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.6069 and 1.6150 region. On the downside, the lower line of the minor bullish channel remains a key support and need a consistent move below the channel to diminish the current strong bullish outlook testing 1.5750 and 1.5650.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 81.36 but closed higher at 81.81. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within major bearish scenario. On h4 chart below we have a hammer candle stick formation indicates potential upside pullback testing 82.87. On the downside, we need a break below 81.36 to continue the bearish pressure testing 80.60 and 80.00 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant technical move on Friday. So far price still move below the descending triangle indicates the bearish scenario remains strong but we are still in consolidation phase and need a clear break below 0.9550 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9450 and 0.9350. On the upside, a move back inside the triangle could lead us to neutral zone testing 0.9778 and the upper line of the bearish channel.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY break below the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This fact activates my wait and see mode but could open the door for further bearish pressure especially if break below 113.75 targeting 112.95. On the upside, we need a move above 115.65 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 117.00. We have a broad Yen strength lately, diminishing technical bullishness. I will stay away for now.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 129.82 but closed significantly higher at 130.54 in a volatile market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in bearish consolidation phase. Immediate support at 129.82 (Friday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 128.54. Initial resistance at 131.75 followed by 132.55.


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was volatile but indecisive on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall we are still in strong bullish scenario but need a clear break above 0.9917 to continue the bullish pressure targeting a new historical high around 1.0050 region. Note that a failure to move above 0.9917 could set up a double top bearish scenario, especially if break below 0.9775, testing 0.9708 and 0.9600 area.

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