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Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Oct-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD has a significant bearish correction yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price slipped below the bullish channel indicates a serious threat to the current strong bullish outlook. I think we are entering a tricky phase here. I still maintain my bullish outlook, but will stop buying the Euro for now until technically sure that the bullish scenario remains intact. Although it’s still too early for bearish reversal scenario, note that fast bullish run may followed by fast bearish pullback in reversal scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.3700. Consistent move above that area should keep the strong bullish outlook intact testing weekly target around 1.4050. On the other hand, a break below 1.3600 could trigger not only further bearish pressure in nearest term but potential bearish reversal scenario targeting 1.3500 even lower as the bullish trend could end. No matter what we believe where direction should be, nobody knows the future and execute our stop losses is a must.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. We still have no clear direction so do not rush jump into the market. On h4 chart below price is moving inside a minor bullish channel indicates bullish scenario remains intact testing weekly target around 1.6000, but the lower line of the channel is now being tested. Break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.5750 and 1.5650 area before testing the lower line of the major bullish channel (white).


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY didn’t make significant technical move yesterday so there are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains neutral but still within rounding top bearish scenario testing 82.87. Expected range between 84.00 – 82.87. Break above 84.00 could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish pressure yesterday but so far still struggling around 0.9730 area. On h4 chart below we have descending triangle formation which is a bearish pattern, but need a break below the triangle to confirm the bearish continuation. Note that we have a strong support around 0.9730/00 area and need a consistent and convincing move below that area to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9647. On the upside, break above 0.9778 could cancel the descending triangle bearish scenario and could trigger further bullish momentum, an upside correction testing 0.9843.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was corrected lower significantly yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel indicates critical technical point. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure testing 113.35. Break below 113.35 could be a beginning of a bearish reversal scenario testing at least 111.60. Immediate resistance at 114.73. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact targeting 115.48 and 117.00.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. We are still in bearish consolidation phase. Expected range at 132.55 (38.2 Fibo) – 131.00 (61.8% Fibo). We need a clear break from either side to see clearer direction. I still maintain my bullish outlook and expecting a clear break above 132.55 to keep the falling wedge bullish scenario intact testing 133.55 and 135.03. However, if price break below 131.00, the falling wedge bullish scenario is in a serious threat targeting 130.10.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday. We are now in consolidation phase and any downside pullback is normal but the main scenario remains bullish. My wait and see mode is now activated, waiting for further development. Immediate support at 0.9600. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 0.9467 but as long as price move inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario. On the upside, we need a clear break above 0.9728/49 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849.

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