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Monday, October 4, 2010
Oct-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.3790. The bias remains bullish in nearest term especially if price make another breakout above 1.3800 targeting 1.3888 – 1.3900 region before testing 1.4050 area. Immediate support at 1.3700. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.3600 and the lower line of the bullish channel but only violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the strong bullish outlook. Any downside correction should be normal but so far I see no potential technical bearish reversal sign so I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday after corrected lower on Thursday. Like I said, this pair still move in a high volatile market, make new highs and lows without a clear direction inside a broadening formation. As long as price still move inside the major bullish channel we are still in major bullish outlook testing 1.6000 especially if price able to make a strong breakout above 1.5900 but nearest term bias remains unclear and I will keep stay away for now. EUR/USD is still a better pair to be traded than GBP/USD. On the downside, key support level is seen around 1.5650. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the major bullish channel.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 83.16 but corrected higher earlier today in Asian session, hit 83.86. Price seems hesitate to move lower to 82.87 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay below 84.00 we are still in strong rounding top bearish scenario testing 82.87. Break above 84.00 could trigger further bullish correction but only a break above 84.82 could cancel the bearish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 0.9720 but again, further bearish pressure was rejected, traded higher around 0.9778 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact, but several rejections to move consistently below 0.9730 could produce bearish exhaustion at this phase. I think I will stand aside for now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance at 0.9843. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 0.9931 but overall the scenario remains strongly bearish. On the downside, we need a clear and consistent move below 0.9730 to continue the bearish pressure testing 0.9647 region even lower.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 114.85 and hit 115.27 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 115.48 and 117.00. Immediate support at 114.20. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 113.35 support area. Unless the bullish channel violated to the downside, we are still in strong bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement on Friday, but traded higher earlier today in Asian session after found support around 61.8% Fibo retracement as you can see on my h4 chart below. We are still in consolidation phase. I still prefer a bullish scenario but need at least a consistent move above 132.55 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 133.55 and 135.03. On the downside, clear break below 61.% level (131.00) could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook targeting 130.10 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 0.9749 but unable to move consistently above 0.9728 so far. Potential range at 0.9728 – 0.9600 but still within a strong major bullish scenario targeting 0.9792 and 0.9849 especially if price able to make a strong break above 0.9728/49. CCI just cross the 100 line down and now in neutral area indicating potential bearish correction but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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