The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday but not as strong as I had expected. Moving in a volatile market, the pair attempted to push lower, slipped below 1.4595, bottomed at 1.4563 but bounced higher at 1.4678 before closed lower at 1.4612 after Trichet’s comment. As reported by Bloomberg, Trichet said that strong Dollar is “extremely important”. I really want to see how the market react today and days ahead to this statement. Will it trigger a bearish reversal? Well, I think although that comment doesn’t necessarily trigger a bearish reversal, but at least provide some support to the Dollar. Why buying the Euro if the President of ECB prefer strong Dollar? Now let’s check on technical side.
On h4 chart below we still have a valid bearish channel so further bearish correction warning is still a live and kicking although rejection to consistently move below 1.4595 should keep bullish scenario intact. A violation to the upside of the bearish channel could potentially put the bearish correction to it’s end but for me only a break above 1.4850 should be seen as bullish continuation towards 1.5000. Immediate support at 1.4563 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.4440 and 1.4190.
GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5768 but furher bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5878. After had significant bearish momentum since September 14 from 1.6684, yesterday’s upside correction is actually normal. As long as the pair stay below 1.6000, I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break above 1.6000 should trigger further bullish correction re-testing 1.6113 area. Immediate support at 1.5840 followed by 1.5768.
USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair had a false breakdown below 88.50, slipped at 88.22 before whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 89.69. We also have a hammer formation indicating potential bullish correction testing 90.20 resistance area, but I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break above 90.20 should trigger further bullish correction and diminished my bearish outlook. Initial support at 88.22 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario towards 87.10 area.
USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it’s moderate bullish correction yesterday. On h4 chart below we still have a valid bullish channel indicating bullish correction is still intact but the pair so far still able to stay below 1.0380. A break above 1.0380 should be seen as a potential threat to the current bearish outlook and could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0527. Immediate support at 1.0250. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.
EURJPY Forecast
As I had expected, the EURJPY had a bullish correction yesterday, moving towards the trendline resistance area which is still a normal movement. Surely this bullish momentum could be a potential threat to my bearish outlook and we are in no trading zone area, but only movement back above the trendline could cancel the bearish scenario. Be patient and do not rush jump into the market. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 132.20 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 134.40 and could potentially put the bearish scenario to it’s end. Immediate support at 130.60 followed by 129.70.
GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 139.71 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 142.42. On daily chart below we have a hammer formation after some bearish momentum indicating potential bullish correction, but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario which triggered by double top formation. I think we are in no trading zone now. Immediate resistance at 143.80 followed by 145.00. Initial support at 142.20 followed by 141.40.
AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a volatile market yesterday. My technical scenario was a mess. The pair made a false breakdown to my triangle before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.8755 and closed at 0.8722. This fact should trigger further bullish view re-testing 0.8787 but I think it’s better to stay away now since actually the market is still in consolidation phase in bigger term outlook, moving between 0.8787 – 0.8500 range area.
