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Thursday, October 1, 2009
Oct-01 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EURUSD Forecast: Bearish Channel Violated, A Good Start for Bullish Continuation

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4672 but further upside momentum was limited as the pair closed a little bit lower at 1.4636. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to the upside and the upper line of the bearish channel now become a good support preventing further bearish pressure. Therefore, although the bullish momentum also limited now, I think the bullish scenario continuation has made a good start here after some bearish correction. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4720. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.4850. Immediate support at 1.4575. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
We had a volatile market yesterday. The pair break above 1.6000, topped at 1.6125 but closed lower at 1.6005 and now struggling around 1.6000 area. This is not my favorite situation and prefer to stay out for now, but the pair seems to lose some bullish momentum and vulnerable for downside pressure. I am expecting range market between 1.5950 – 1.6125. Break below 1.5950 should trigger further weakness for the Sterling while break above 1.6125 should continue the bullish scenario towards 1.6300 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was losing it’s bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 89.34 and closed at 89.71. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline area (blue) has been a good resistance area prevents further bullish pressure triggered by the hammer. Since overall the major trend remains bearish, I am thinking of place a short position if I see rejection to move above the trendline area with a tight stop loss if the price break above the trendline because bullish correction might not over yet. Break above the trendline should trigger further bullish correction testing 91.40 area. Immediate support at 89.34. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 88.22 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a volatile market but indecisive, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below, as I had expected, the pair tested the lower line of the bullish channel, slipped below it, bottomed at 1.0279 but now back to move inside the bullish channel indicating bullish correction is still valid. However I prefer to stay away from the market now and wait for further development. Immediate support at 1.0275. Break below that area could be the end of the bullish correction and continue bearish scenario towards 1.0000. Initial resistance at 1.0450. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction re-testing 1.0527.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make a significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is in consolidation phase, corrected higher after some bearish momentum. Since I prefer a bearish scenario, I am think about placing a short trade today if I see a rejection to move above the trendline resistance area with tight stop loss above the trendline. Expected range at 132.40 – 130.60. Break above 132.40 could trigger further bullish momentum and potentially cancel my bearish scenario while break below 130.60 should lead us towards 129.79 before aim for 127.00 area.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY mad indecisive movement yesterday, a common movement during consolidation phase. Technically we do not have significant momentum so I prefer to stay out for now. The bullish correction triggered by the Hammer is still valid so do not rush selling now. Immediate resistance at 144.52 (yesterday’s high) followed by 145.40. Initial support at 142.15. Break below that area could potentially put the bullish correction to it’s end and aim for 139.70 area.

gbpjpydaily

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that after breakout above 0.8787, the pair topped at 0.8846 and closed at 0.8835. This is nothing but a bullish scenario for me. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8950. Immediate support at 0.8787. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure as price might losing it’s bullish momentum and lead us back into no trading zone.

audusddaily

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