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Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Friday, April 30, 2010
Apr-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, slipped above 1.3267 area, topped at 1.3277 but still unable to consistently move above 1.3267 so far, keep the bearish scenario intact. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However there might be other attempts to break above that area today. Consistent move above 1.3267 could change the intra-day bias into a bullish bias testing 1.3330 – 1.3400 region. Although remains a major bias, bearish pressure is limited so far and we need a clear break below 1.3200 area to continue further bearish momentum re-testing 1.3100 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5340 and closed at 1.5316. As you can see on my h4 chart below, I have made adjustment to the range area. The lower line is no longer at 1.5200, but 1.5128. Overall in medium term of view, we are still in consolidation phase and need a break above 1.5520 to continue the major bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.5390. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5465 region before testing 1.5520. Initial support at 1.5290 followed by 1.5213.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. The major outlook remains bullish. As long as price stay above 93.75, we may continue to have upside pressure testing 94.70 region. Break below 93.75 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 93.00. On the upside we need a clear break above 94.70 to continue the bullish scenario towards 95.50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but the false breakout scenario still potential as price so far able to stay below 1.0888. Immediate support at 1.0760/50 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0700 – 1.0680 region. On the upside, we still need a clear break above 1.0888 to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.1000 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price still able to stay inside the bullish channel as the lower line still does a good job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the major bullish scenario intact. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as intra-day bias direction remains unclear. Immediate resistance at 125.35. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 126.30 region. Initial support at 123.50. Break below that area could be serious threat to the bullish outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 144.34 and closed at 144.02. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 145.95 area especially if price able to break above 144.90 area today. Immediate support at 143.10. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 142.00 region and diminish the bullish outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
As you can see on daily chart below, the AUDUSD slipped above the triangle indicating potential bullish scenario. However we need a consistent move above the triangle to confirm the bullish bias. I will pay attention to 0.9345 region today. Break above that area confirms my bullish outlook targeting 0.9381 – 0.9404 region. Immediate support at 0.9268 (current low). Break below that area and a movement back inside the triangle could cancel the bullish scenario in nearest term testing 0.9220 area but overall the main trend remains to the upside.

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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Apr-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below 1.3267 area, bottomed at 1.3165 and closed at 1.3176, confirm my technical bearish continuation scenario targeting 1.3100 area and end the bullish correction at this phase. Immediate resistance at 1.3267 (former support). Another pullback above that area should lead us into no trading zone testing 1.3300/30 region but the main scenario remains bearish. On the downside, break below 1.3100 should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2880 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also had a significant bearish momentum yesterday after break below 1.5370, bottomed at 1.5237 and closed at 1.5262. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing 1.5200 area, the lower line of range area indicating a critical technical phase. Breakdown below 1.5200 could be seen as potential bullish failure testing 1.5120 even 1.5000 psychological level. However note that as long as price still move above 1.5200 the bullish scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.5330 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.5400 region and keep the bullish scenario intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 92.50 region. Immediate resistance at 93.30. Break above that area should lead us into neutral zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term. My technical study is a mess with this pair so I will keep stay away. The major bullish scenario remains intact but we may have a significant downside pullback from here.



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price is now challenging the upper side of the range area around 1.0888. Consistent move above that area should confirm bullish scenario targeting 1.1000 region. Immediate support at 1.0800. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.0750 and keep the pair in range area of 1.0888 – 1.0420 in longer term point of view.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish view testing 121.40 area. However we saw an upside pullback earlier today in Asian session indicating potential upside rebound testing the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price able to stay below the channel the bias should remain to the downside. Immediate resistance at 123.40 area. Break above that area and a movement back inside the bullish channel could produce a false breakdown scenario which usually lead to significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 141.60 and closed at 142.33. The bias is bearish in nearest term but as you can see on daily chart below the trendline support still does a good job preventing further bearish pressure, keep the major bullish scenario intact. We are in a critical and tricky technical phase now. Break below the trendline support could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 139.40 area. Immediate resistance at 143.20. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact. I think I will stay away from this pair for now.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price slipped below the support line but still unable to consistently move below the support line as price made an upside pullback earlier today in Asian session. The bullish scenario surely in a serious threat but the fact that we saw a rejection below the support line should keep the major bullish scenario intact. We need a consistent move below that support line to confirm bullish failure and potential bearish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 0.9135 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 0.9250. I think I will stay away from this pair for now and wait for further development.

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Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Apr-27 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but as you can see on my h1 chart below the lower line of the minor bullish channel did a good job preventing further downside pressure, keep the upside correction scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Note that the major technical bearish remains intact and we need a consistent move above 1.3415 area to continue the bullish correction targeting 1.3500 even 1.3600 region this week. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.3267/00 area could be seen as the end of the bullish correction and continue the bearish scenario towards 1.3100 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias yesterday, topped at 1.5496 and closed at 1.5455 but traded lower around 1.5435 at the time I wrote this comment today. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Overall the pair still move in range area of 1.5520 – 1.5200 indicating consolidation after bullish run from 1.4779 but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. However we need a clear break above 1.5520 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.5750 – 1.5800 area this week. Immediate support at 1.5370. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure but as long as price stay above 1.5200 the bullish scenario remains intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. Very tricky pair. On h1 chart below we can see that price corrected lower after found resistance around 94.35 area and keep moving lower and now testing the lower line of the bullish channel, struggling around 93.75 support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pullback testing 93.30 – 93.00 region. The bullish scenario remains intact but we need a clear break above 94.70 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 95.50 and 96.70. I think I will stay away from this pair for now.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF still show no clear direction in a volatile market so far and we are still in no trading zone for this pair. Overall price still move in range area of 1.0888 – 1.0420. However, note that the raising wedge formation indicating potential bearish scenario especially if price break below the wedge testing 1.0420. Immediate support is seen at 1.0660/75. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0600. Initial resistance at 1.0786 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.0848.



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Monday, April 26, 2010
Apr-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
As you can see on my daily chart below, the bearish pressure seems to have a strong support around 1.3267/00 area which is a bottom at this phase. Although major technical bearish outlook remains intact as Euro fundamental situation remains fragile, this bottom could lead to a bullish momentum in nearest term testing 1.3500 area especially if price break above 1.3415 area today. We need a clear break below 1.3267/00 area to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3100 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had been move in upside bias since touched the double bottom at 1.4779 area. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.5520 area before testing the major trendline resistance. Immediate support at 1.5370 (current low). Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone but overall the medium bias should remains to the upside as long as price stay above 1.5200 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
After corrected lower and slipped below the bullish channel since failed to break above 94.70 area, the USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum last week and break above 93.75 indicating potential bullish outlook as downside correction may end and price ready to continue the bullish scenario . However we need a clear break above 94.70 area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 95.50 even 96.70 – 97.80 region this week. Another move below 93.75 should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the upside.


USDCHF Forecast
Overall, the USDCHF shows no clear direction so far, moving in a range area of 1.0888 – 1.0420 in a volatile market. On daily chart below we have a raising wedge formation indicating potential bearish scenario especially if price break below the lower line. Immediate support at 1.0675 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.0600 before re-testing 1.0420 region. Initial resistance at 1.0888. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.1000 psychological level.


EURJPY Forecast
After significantly corrected lower since failed to break above 127.88 area, last week the EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum. On daily chart below we can seen that the lower line of the bullish channel did a great job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the bullish scenario intact and may end the bearish correction phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term re-testing 127.88 region. Immediate support at 125.50 (current low). Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear and price may re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel once again.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY able to stay above the major trendline resistance last week, indicating a stable upside momentum and confirms my bullish reversal scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 146.60 – 147.40 area. Immediate support at 144.60. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD showed no clear direction in a volatile market last week. On daily chart below we can see that price still able to move above the broadening formation and formed a triple bottom support area, keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the bullish scenario. Immediate resistance at 0.9326. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9381 – 0.9404 area. Initial support at 0.9220. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing the triple bottom support around 0.9170/60 area.

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Monday, April 19, 2010
Apr-19 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.3472 and closed at 1.3508. The bullish scenario after price violated the major bearish channel remains intact but clearly has started to lose some momentum. Immediate support at 1.3450/35 area. Consistent move below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.3267 key support area even 1.3100 this week. Initial resistance at 1.3540 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 1.3620 and 1.3691 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made a gap today, opened about 100 pips lower than Friday’s close price. While the bullish scenario is in a serious threat as price violated the bullish channel, gaps are usually filled and big gaps may produce volatile movement without clear technical direction. I think I will stand aside form now. The bias is bearish in nearest term but like I said price may attempt to fill the gap by moving higher towards the lower line of the bullish channel. Immediate support at 1.5202. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5150 region before targeting 1.5000. Initial resistance at 1.5391.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum on Friday, break below the bullish channel indicating bullish failure and potential bearish scenario at least in nearest term targeting 91.30 area, but the medium term bias is neutral/unclear. Immediate resistance at 92.50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish momentum. On daily chart below we can see that price is now back inside the major bullish channel indicating potential false breakdown scenario which not only keep the bullish scenario intact but could trigger significant bullish momentum. However technically this pair is a mess. Immediate resistance at 1.0700. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.0750 even 1.0888 area. Initial support at 1.0550.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday after failed to break above 127.88 resistance area, bottomed at 123.86 and closed at 124.42. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing the lower line of the bullish channel but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel the bullish scenario should remain intact. Immediate support at 122.80. Break below that area could be s serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 124.75.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that price whipsawed to the downside after made a false breakout above 144.70 and now back below the trendline. This fact lead us into a neutral zone in medium term outlook as price still struggling around the trendline without a clear direction but the nearest bias is bearish testing 139.50 area. Immediate resistance at 141.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continued its bullish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that price is now re-testing the upper line of the broadening formation indicating critical technical phase. Although it’s clear that bullish momentum is losing momentum here, as long as price still move above the formation, the bullish scenario should remain intact and only a consistent movement back inside the formation could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario testing 0.9150 – 0.9090 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9280 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 0.9352 region.

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Thursday, April 15, 2010
Apr-15 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped above the bullish flag but bullish momentum seems limited so far. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need a convincing movement above the flag and 1.3700 area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.3830 region this week. Immediate support at 1.3580. Break below that area could be a threat to the bullish flag upside scenario and lead us back into no trading zone testing 1.3530/00 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. On my h4 chart below we can see that price break above the bullish flag, confirms the bullish scenario targeting 1.5550 – 1.5600 area. Immediate support at 1.5425. Break below that area could be a threat to the bullish flag upside scenario, lead us into a no trading zone testing 1.5350 area but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday, made another Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 93.75 – 92.50 indicating consolidation. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need a clear break above 93.75 to end the consolidation phase/downside correction targeting 95.50 region. On the other hand, break below 92.50 and violation to the bullish channel could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, keep the bearish scenario intact after price break below the major bullish channel. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.0420. Immediate resistance at 1.0600. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 127.66 but closed lower at 127.27. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need a clear break above 127.88 resistance area to continue the bullish scenario testing 128.70. Immediate support at 126.70/25 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 144.62 and closed at 144.16. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but we need a clear break above 144.70 resistance area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 145.70 even 147.50 this week. Immediate support at 144.10. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 143.20 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9359 and closed at 0.9350. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 0.9404 before aim for 0.9500 area. Immediate support at 0.9280 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 0.9222 region and might be a serious threat to the bullish scenario.

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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Apr-14 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3546 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.3612 and keep moving higher around 1.3645 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we have a bullish flag formation indicating potential bullish scenario especially if price breakout above the flag targeting 1.3750 before testing 1.3830 area. Immediate support at 1.3610/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone re-testing 1.3530 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5448 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.5377. The bias is neutral in nearest term but note that we are still in bullish mode for this phase as price still able to move inside the bullish channel. Like the EURUSD, on h4 chart below we can see a bullish flag indicating potential bullish outlook especially if price breakout above the flag targeting 1.5550 area. Immediate support at 1.5330/50 region. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but as long as the bullish channel hold I still prefer a bullish scenario.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price still in consolidation/bearish correction phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. Technically the 92.00 level remains a bearish correction target until we have a consistent move above 93.75 to end this bearish correction and continue the major bullish scenario towards 95.50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price break below the major bullish channel indicating potential bullish failure and a new bearish phase at least testing 1.0420 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0610/40 area. Break above that area could be seen a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish just like what happened on April 01 and keep the bullish scenario intact.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 125.69 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 126.85 and keep moving higher around 127.34 at the time I wrote this comment. Since the gap has been filled, I think we are back to bullish outlook from now, testing 127.88. We need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 128.70 region. Immediate support at 126.77 (current low). Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but overall the main scenario remains to the upside.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. However price still able to move above the trendline so I still prefer a bullish scenario re-testing 144.70 area today. Break above 144.70 area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 145.70 even 147.50 this week. Immediate support at 143.20 (current low). Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

AUDUSD Forecast
As you can see on my daily chart below, the AUDUSD had a bullish momentum after the bearish pressure failed to break below the upper line of the broadening formation, which proved to be a good support at this phase, keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9404 area. Immediate support at 0.9250. Only a movement back inside the formation could be seen as a serious threat to the bullish scenario.

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Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Apr-13 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3691 but further bullish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3566 and closed at 1.3591. Looks like price now is trying to fill the gap and testing 1.3530 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3450 region. Initial resistance at 1.3700. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3750 – 1.3830 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5484 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5351 and closed at 1.5366. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5250 area but note that as long as price still move inside the bullish channel, the upside scenario should remain intact. Immediate resistance at 1.5440. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.5550.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are still in bearish correction phase with 92.50/00 as bearish correction target. We need a consistent movement above 93.75 to end the correction and continue the major bullish scenario towards 95.50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price still struggling around the major bullish channel indicating critical technical phase. Break below the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the major bullish scenario and begin a new bearish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.0640. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 1.0750 even 1.0888. Initial support at 1.0520. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0420 region.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum earlier today in Asian session. On daily chart below we can see that the gap has been filled. Although the bias is bearish in nearest term testing 125.15 area, the main scenario should remain bullish and the current bearish momentum, beside only to fill the gap, is also a normal downside correction. Initial resistance at 127.88. We need a clear break above that area to continue the major bullish scenario.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 144.49 but closed lower at 143.28 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session around 142.68. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone. Price still struggling around the trendline indicating intense battle between buyer and seller. The bullish scenario should remain intact but we need a clear break above potential top around 144.70/50 area to continue the bullish testing 147.20 area. A failure to do so and another consistent movement below the trendline could trigger significant downside pressure testing 140.95 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish correction yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that price is testing the lower line of the broadening formation which is expected to be a good support at this phase to prevent further bearish pressure and continue the bullish scenario. I think the lower line of the broadening formation is a good place for a long position with stop loss below the lower line as actually the current bearish momentum is only a normal correction. A movement back inside the formation could lead us not only to a no trading zone but potential bearish outlook as bullish scenario may fail.

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