Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

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Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
June-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price not only break below the trendline support but also slipped below the major bullish channel indicating a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario and technically price is now ready to resume its major bearish scenario especially if able to break below 1.2150/40 region targeting 1.2000 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term but CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart indicating potential upside rebound. Another upside pullback inside the bullish channel could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term and keep the bullish correction scenario intact. Immediate resistance at 1.2250 followed by 1.2300 region.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday, but so far price still able to stay above 1.5000 region. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in upside correction phase. Break below 1.5000 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4900 area. On the upside, consistent move above 1.5080 – 1.5100 area and the major trendline resistance (blue) could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5200 region before targeting 1.5400 – 1.5500 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, after break below the descending triangle as you can see on my h1 chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a break below 88.23 region to continue the bearish pressure towards 87.35 area before testing 84.82 region in longer term. Immediate resistance at 88.70. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The main scenario remains to the downside targeting 1.0750. Bullish view indicated by CCI divergence as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.0900/50 region and the minor trendline resistance (white). Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but as long as price move inside the major bearish channel the bearish scenario remains intact.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below the triangle as you can see on my daily chart below indicating potential bearish view testing 106.75 region. Immediate resistance at 108.50 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 109.50 area but the main scenario remains to the downside at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel indicating serious threat to the upside correction scenario especially if price able to move below 132.90 region today targeting 131.00 area. On the upside, another movement back inside the bullish channel could produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger significant bullish momentum testing 134.50 – 135.12 area and keep the bullish correction scenario intact.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below 0.8550 indicating bullish failure. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.8350 region but the medium outlook is neutral. Another movement back above 0.8550 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear testing 0.8650 area.

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
June-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the trendline support area. Overall we are still in upside correction phase but a consistent move below the trendline support and 1.2240 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2200 – 1.2150 area and could be a serious challenge to the bearish correction scenario. On the upside, we still need a break above 1.2465 resistance area to continue the bullish scenario at least testing 1.2645.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a limited bullish momentum yesterday but still able to move above 1.5000 area indicating the upside pressure is still potential. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Bearish potential indicated by CCI divergence as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break below 1.5000 area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.4950/00 region but overall we are still in bullish correction phase. On the upside, the nearest target is seen around 1.5200 region. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5400 – 1.5500 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY slipped below the descending triangle yesterday, but unable to move below 89.00 support area and now back inside the triangle. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a consistent movement below the triangle and 89.00 area to see further bearish pressure targeting 88.23. On the other hand, a movement above the triangle could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 90.50 resistance area.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0817 but closed a little bit higher at 1.0866. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.0750 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.0950 – 1.1020 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday, but found a good support at the lower line of the triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below. Note that we need a clear break below the triangle to end the bullish correction phase targeting 108.07 region. Immediate resistance at 110.80/90 region which is the top level since Friday. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 111.70 before testing the upper line of the triangle.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a limited bullish movement yesterday, but overall still able to maintain its bullish bias after bounced from the lower line of the bullish channel on Friday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 136.20 region. Break above that area could trigger further upside scenario testing 138.00 region. On the downside, immediate support at 134.17 (yesterday’s low) followed by 133.50/60 and the lower line of the bullish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still within a bullish view testing 0.8950 area especially if price able to move above 0.8850/60 region. Immediate support at 1.8650/00 region. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8550 but as long as price stay above the 0.8550 the main scenario remains to the upside.

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Monday, June 28, 2010
June-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was able to maintain its bullish bias last week. We are now in a critical technical point, where a consistent move above 1.2465 resistance could be seen as bearish failure and a beginning of a medium bullish outlook targeting 1.2645 and 1.3120 region. Immediate support at 1.2240/80 region and the trendline support area, as you can see on my h1 chart below. Break below the trendline support should keep the major bearish scenario intact at least testing 1.2150 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday, able to consistently move above 1.5000 area indicating potential upside outlook testing 1.5100 – 1.5200 before targeting 1.5400 – 1.5500 area this week. A movement back below 1.5000 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.4900/50 area but overall the bullish correction scenario remains strong.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was able to maintain its bearish bias on Friday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a descending triangle formation indicating bearish view especially if price able to move consistently move below 89.20/00 region targeting 88.23 before testing 84.82 region in longer term. This bearish outlook can only be canceled by a movement above the descending triangle, testing 90.50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum on Friday. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0850 and 1.0750 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.1020 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h1 chart indicating potential upside rebound but I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another indecisive movement on Friday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that price is moving in a triangle formation indicating consolidation phase after significant bearish rally. Potential range for today at 109.50 – 111.70 area. Break below 109.50 could trigger further bearish pressure and keep the major bearish intact while a break above 111.70 could trigger further upside pressure testing the upper line of the triangle.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was able to maintain its bullish bias in Friday. I have made some adjustment to the bullish channel as a result of the newest development in the market. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 136.20 region. Break above that area could trigger further upside scenario testing 138.00 region. On the downside, immediate support at 133.10 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Only consistent move below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish correction outlook.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price violated the minor trendline resistance (red) indicating potential upside scenario testing 0.8950 in nearest term. Immediate support at 0.8700 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8600 region but the main scenario remains to the upside.

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Friday, June 25, 2010
June-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h1 chart below we can see that price still moving inside a minor bullish channel (white channel) indicating upside pressure in nearest term is still potential. Break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.2240 support area before testing the major bullish channel (blue channel). On the upside, 1.2450 remains the nearest upside target especially if price able to move consistently above 1.2350 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD failed to continued its bullish momentum yesterday after unable to stay consistently above 1.5000 region. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We are still in bullish correction phase but as you can see on my h4 chart below we have a rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern especially if price break below the formation, testing the major trendline support. Immediate support at 1.4800. On the upside, we need a consistent move above 1.5000 area to continue this bullish correction scenario targeting 1.5100 region before testing 1.5400 – 1.5500 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 89.22 but closed higher at 89.58. The bias is neutral in nearest term, but we have a falling wedge formation as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential upside pullback especially if price able to break above the formation testing 90.50/80 region. On the downside, we need a break below 89.00 area before testing 88.23 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF slipped below the range area yesterday, bottomed at 1.0985 but unable to stay below the range area and now back inside the range area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but this fact could produce a false breakdown scenario which could trigger upside pressure testing 1.1137 area. The main scenario remains bearish but note that we need a consistent move below 1.1006 region to continue the bearish pressure targeting 1.0920 region. Break above 1.1137 region could trigger further bullish momentum testing the bearish channel and 1.1245 resistance area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the trendline support but unable to move below the trendline support so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On another perspective, as you can see on my h4 chart below, price is moving inside a triangle area after a bearish rally indicating consolidation. We need a clear break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Consistent move below the lower line (which is also the trendline support) could resume the major bearish scenario testing 108.07 area. Immediate resistance at 110.70 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure towards 111.70 region before testing the upper line of the triangle.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made another insignificant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the lower line of the bullish channel and the ascending triangle indicating critical technical point. The bullish momentum is waning but we need a consistent move below the bullish channel and the ascending triangle to confirm bullish failure and resume the major bearish scenario at least testing 130.50 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continue to push lower yesterday after failed to move above 0.8858 on Monday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bullish scenario should remain intact as long as price stay above 0.8550 region. Immediate resistance at 0.8730 area. Break above that area and the minor trendline resistance (red) could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.8950 and 0.9100 in longer term. On the other hand, break below 0.8550 could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario.

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Thursday, June 24, 2010
June-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2209 but closed higher at 1.2309. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to break above the descending triangle to the upside, re-testing 1.2450 region. On the other hand, another movement below the triangle and 1.2240 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2150 and the lower line of the bullish channel. We are still in upside correction phase targeting the major trendline resistance (red) area. A break above the trendline resistance confirms the bullish reversal scenario indicated first by the breakout above the falling wedge formation I showed you on my last weekly summary on Saturday. Only a violation to the bullish channel could be a serious threat to the bullish correction/reversal scenario.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after break above the minor trendline resistance (red), as you can see on my h1 chart below. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.5050 – 1.5100 region. Immediate support at 1.4900/50 area. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish correction even potential reversal at this phase especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5000 psychological area testing 1.5400 – 1.5500 region in longer term.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 89.73 and closed at 89.79 after break below the descending triangle, confirms the bearish scenario targeting 89.00 even 88.23 area in nearest term. Immediate resistance 90.00/50 region. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price consolidating in rectangle area between 1.1137 – 1.1006. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a break from the rectangle area to see clearer direction. I prefer a breakdown targeting 1.0920 region but if price make a breakout above the range area I will stand aside and see further development as price may testing 1.1170 and 1.1245 resistance area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower after break below the triangle yesterday, bottomed at 109.89 but found a good support at the trendline support (yellow) as you can see on my h4 below, and closed higher at 110.55. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact could trigger further upside rebound testing 111.70 region in nearest term. We need a break below the trendline support to continue the bearish scenario targeting 108.07 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday but failed to consistently move below the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but this fact should keep the bullish correction intact. We also have an ascending triangle formation, which is a bullish pattern especially if price able to break above the triangle and 136.40 area targeting 139.50 region. Note that we still need a clear break below the bullish channel to end the bullish correction phase testing 130.50 and 126.75 region. As long as the bullish channel hold, I prefer a bullish scenario in nearest/medium term.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8661 but closed higher at 0.8738. This fact should keep the bullish scenario intact and strong especially if price able to break above the minor trendline resistance (red) targeting 0.8950 even 0.9100 in longer term. Immediate support at 0.8661 followed by 0.8550.

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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
June-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continue its bearish momentum yesterday. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but need consistent move below 1.2240 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.2150 and the lower line of the major bullish channel (blue channel). Note that as long as price move inside the major bullish channel the upside correction scenario remains intact. So we still have conflicting bias between nearest and medium term. Price has been moving in a minor bearish channel (white channel) since failed to stay consistently above 1.2450 resistance area on Monday. Violation to that minor bearish channel and movement above 1.2300 – 1.2350 area could lead us into neutral area in nearest term.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD didn’t make a clear technical move yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price still struggling around the minor trendline support area without clear direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a consistent move below the minor trendline support to continue the bearish pressure towards 1.4600 – 1.4550 before testing the major trendline support. On the upside, a consistent move above the minor trendline resistance (red) could trigger further bullish pressure towards 1.4935 before testing 1.5000/50 region.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. Beside the big symmetrical triangle, as you can see on my h4 chart below we also have a descending triangle indicating potential bearish view especially if price able to move consistently below the triangle targeting 89.00 region. Immediate reistance at 91.00 – 91.20 area. Break above that area could lead us back into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant technical movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price still struggling around the minor trendline resistance (white). The bias remains neutral in nearest term. A movement above the minor trendline resistance could give us some space for further upside correction testing 1.1170 even 1.1245 area but as long as price move inside the bearish channel the main outlook remains bearish. On the downside, 1.0920 area remains the nearest downside target.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had significant bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price violated the triangle to the downside after made a false breakout indicating potential bearish scenario targeting 110.66 and 109.75 area. Immediate resistance at 111.70 area. Break above that area and another movement back inside the triangle could lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but the lower line of the bullish channel did a good job preventing further bearish pressure as price closed higher after failed to break below the bullish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a break above the minor trendline resistance (white) to continue the bullish scenario. As long as price move below that trendline, we may see further downside attempt re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel which could be a serious threat to the bullish correction phase. Immediate support at 133.10/20 area. Consistent move below that area could be the end of the bullish correction phase at least testing 130/40 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday. The bias is bearish in nearest term but overall the bullish scenario remains intact as long as price stay above 0.8550 region. Immediate support at 0.8710. Consistent below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8550 and could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 0.8770/90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.8950 even 0.9100 area in longer term.

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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
June-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD bullish correction was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price violated the minor bullish channel indicating potential bearish in nearest term testing 1.2240 support area and the lower line of the major bullish channel. I think I will stand aside for now. I have conflicting bias between nearest term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Note that we need a movement below the major bullish channel to end this upside correction phase. Break below 1.2240 could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2150 area. On the upside, another consistent movement above 1.2350 – 1.2400 should keep the upside correction scenario remains strong testing 1.2520 and 1.2645 area.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below the minor trendline support and now struggling around the trendline indicating critical technical point in nearest term. Consistent move below the minor trendline support and 1.4750 support area could diminish the bullish correction momentum testing 1.4600 area before testing the major trendline support (white). On the upside, the bullish correction scenario should remains strong if price able to stay above 1.4750 support area with 1.5000/50 region remains potential bullish correction target.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to stay below the triangle yesterday and now back moving inside the triangle, lead us back into no trading zone. This fact could potentially produce a false breakdown scenario especially if price break above the triangle, confirms the upside scenario. If price make another false break(out) above the triangle, then my technical outlook would be a mess and I should change my technical outlook for this pair. I will stand aside for now. Expected range at 92.10 – 90.70/50.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the minor trendline resistance did a good job preventing further upside pressure so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A movement above the minor trendline resistance could give us some space for further upside correction testing 1.1170 even 1.1245 area but as long as price move inside the bearish channel the main outlook remains bearish. On the downside, 1.0920 area remains the nearest downside target.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the triangle but failed to maintain its bullish momentum and now back moving inside the triangle. This fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger significant bearish pressure especially if price make a break below the triangle, end the bullish correction phase at least targeting 110.66 and 109.75 region. Immediate resistance at 112.80 – 113.00 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 114.50 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the minor trendline resistance but failed to maintain its bullish momentum and now back below the trendine resistance. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but this fact could produce a false breakout scenario which could trigger bearish pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Note that we are still in bullish correction phase and need a movement below the bullish channel to end the bullish correction phase. Immediate support at 133.20 area. Initial resistance at 136.00 (yesterday’s high).

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase as long as price move above 0.8550 region. Immediate support at 0.8710. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8550 and could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario. Initial resistance at 0.8858 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 0.8950 even 0.9100 area in longer term.

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Friday, June 18, 2010
June-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the minor bullish channel (red channel) but failed to break below 1.2240 support area before whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.2411 and closed at 1.2388. This fact should keep the bullish correction scenario intact with nearest target at 1.2450 area before testing 1.2520/30 region. Downside risk in nearest term indicated by CCI divergence but as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel the bullish correction scenario remains strong. Immediate support at 1.2350/00 area. Break below that area could diminish the upside momentum, lead us to no trading zone in nearest term testing 1.2240 support area but overall we are still in bullish correction phase.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the minor trendline support but but failed to break below 1.4640 support area and whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.4836 and closed at 1.4823. This fact should keep the bullish correction scenario intact and remains strong testing 1.4875 before targeting 1.5000 especially if price able to move consistently above the trendline resistance (red). Downside risk indicated by CCI divergence but as long as price move above the minor trendline support the bullish correction should remains strong. As a result from yesterday’s price action, I added a new minor trendline support a little bit below the old one. Break below those trendline support could diminish the bullish momentum, lead us into no trading zone in nearest term testing 1.4600 – 1.4550 area but overall we are still in bullish correction phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, but found a good support at the triangle’s lower line as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I am still in wait and see mode but we could have upside rebound from here towards the upper line of the triangle and 92.07 area. Price still consolidate and need a break from the triangle to see clearer direction. Break below 90.50 could give us clearer direction towards 89.00 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.1095 and closed at 1.1116. This fact should continue the bearish outlook targeting 1.1050 before testing 1.0920 area. CCI in oversold area so watch out for potential upside correction testing 1.1245 region. Break above that area could lead us into no trading zone but as long as price move inside the bearish channel, the bearish scenario remains intact.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made another indecisive movement yesterday. The bullish power still unable to move consistently above the trendline resistance (red) indicating limited bullish so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a consistent move above the trendline resistance and 113.36 area to continue the bullish correction testing 114.15 and 115.50 area. On the other hand, break below the trendline support (white) and 111.70 support area could be a serious threat to the upside correction scenario and price may resume its major bearish trend re-testing 108.00 – 109.00 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish correction scenario remains intact but need a consistent move above 136.24 to continue bullish momentum testing 138.20. On the downside, support is seen around the lower line of the bullish channel and 133.20 area. Consistent move below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario and price may resume its major bearish trend testing 130.50 before re-testing 126.75 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving above the trendline resistance indicating potential bullish view testing 0.8745. Downside risk indicated by CCI divergence. Another movement back below the trendline resistance could trigger further downside pullback testing 0.8550 region.

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