Thursday, April 30, 2009
Apr-30 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Dollar Drops Against the Majors as Equities Rally The Dollar recorded an extremely volatile day of trading as a variety of factors helped push up the demand for riskier assets, whilst reducing the demand for safe-haven positions. Equity markets in the U.S. rallied as many companies in the U.S. recorded far better-than-expected results. These led to major banking shares, such as Bank of America and Citigroup making remarkable gains yesterday. The market also continued to move on the better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence figures from Tuesday. The equity market surge and Dollar decline was also owed to Tuesday's impressive U.S. Consumer Confidence figures. The USD tumbled by more than 130 pips against the EUR in yesterday's trading to close at 133.22. This is much owed to the fall in demand for safe-haven currencies, as it seems that the U.S. recession may be bottoming out. This is despite poor U.S. GDP figures that were released yesterday. The Dollar also made losses against the GBP to end the day down 125 pips at 148.30. However, versus the JPY, the USD finished higher 0.6% or 60 pips as the demand for the safe-haven Yen plummeted in yesterday's trading. This was largely owed to news that the economic situation in Japan, China and the U.S. was starting to improve. As of today, there are a number of important U.S. economic data releases that are set to be released. The most important of which are the Unemployment Claims, Personal Spending, and Personal Income figures that are set to be released at 12:30 GMT simultaneously. The market is likely to be very volatile on the release of these figures. Additionally, later on today, the market is likely to take into account the poor U.S. GDP figures that were released yesterday. Therefore, the USD may reverse some of the losses that it made yesterday against its major currency crosses as investors may return to the safe-haven Dollar. We could see the EUR/USD trading near the 1.3200 level by the end of the day. EUR EUR Soars Versus the USD The EUR experienced a bullish day of trading yesterday, mainly due to the European Consumer Confidence figures, showing its first month on month rise in 11 months. This added to the news from across the developed economies from the U.S. to Japan that the worst of the global economic recession may be over. The bullish equity markets in the Euro-Zone and in Britain were partly due to that of the U.S., partly due to the upgrade of British banks by brokers, and the fall in demand of safe-haven currencies. The EUR made its most notable gains against the USD in Thursday's trading. The EUR gained about 130 pips against the Dollar in Wednesday's trading as demand for safe-haven currencies plummeted as the global economy begins to pick up. The pair closed at the 1.3322 level. The EUR/JPY cross rose by an impressive 210 pips to 129.90 as demand for the most safe-haven currency of all as of late plummeted as indicators from Japan showed that her economy had improved in April. Against the Pound, the EUR did make marginal gains as fears of a prolonged European recession dissipated slightly. The pair closed up 15 pips at 0.8980. Looking ahead to today, the Euro-Zone and Britain are set to publish a number of important data releases. These include the British Nationwide HPI at 6:00 GMT and the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate at 21:00 GMT. These figures are likely to determine the GBP and EUR's strength going into end of week trading. Forex traders are also advised to closely follow statements coming from U.S. President Barack Obama and the U.S. Federal Reserve, as the forex market is likely to be very volatile to this. JPY Yen Plummets as Economy Improves The Yen plummeted yesterday against its major currency pairs as the current economic recession in the world's second largest economy seems to be bottoming out. The JPY slid over 60 pips Yen to 97.54 Yen per Dollar as the Yen's demise was compounded by strong U.S. consumer confidence figures. Thus the most safe-haven currency as of late plummeted as a result of both improvements in Japan and America's economy. The JPY also slid against the EUR, dropping a massive 210 pips to finish the day's trading at 129.90. The Pound also made inroads into the JPY as the confidence of the U.S. equity markets swept Europe, and reduced demand for the safe-haven JPY. As the Japanese equity markets reopened yesterday after a bank holiday, shares soared as the global economy showed signs of bottoming out. This is following good U.S. Consumer Confidence figures from Tuesday, European Consumer Confidence figures from yesterday, and positive Japanese data releases on Wednesday. The bearish JPY yesterday was compounded by impressive factory production figures, showing their first increase in 6 months. All these factors helped pour investors away from the Yen and into the riskier equity market. Today, the Household Spending and Unemployment Rate figures are likely to help determine the JPY's strength in late trading. The USD/JPY could break the 98.00 resistance level by the end of today's trading. Crude Oil Jumps 4% The price of Crude Oil ascended by $2 or 4% yesterday to $51.44 a barrel. The increase comes despite the higher-than-forecasted Crude Oil Inventories data release. Much of the black gold's bullishness was owed to the weak Dollar and optimism about a quicker than anticipated global economic recovery. Data coming from the U.S., Japan, China, and the Euro-Zone in the last 2 days helped bring back investors confidence into the equity and commodity markets As a result of the renewed optimism, investors decided to return to the Crude Oil market. Moreover, the weaker Dollar added to the effects of Crude's gains on Wednesday. What we will now have to see is can Oil maintain this bullish momentum? Maybe in the medium-term this may be possible. However, in the short-term high Oil prices are less likely, especially as the U.S. is expected to release poor Unemployment Claims data later on today. Traders may look for profit taking after yesterday's bullish trading session. Crude could drop back to the $50.50 mark. Technical News EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish trading session may have strengthened this pair a bit too far. This could be inferred as the 4-hour chart shows the pair trading in the over-bought zone on the RSI. The chart also shows a bearish cross has formed on the Slow Stochastic. These two signals indicate an imminent downward correction. Traders may also notice the hourly chart's Bollinger Bands tightening, indicating the potential for a violent breech. Going short could be the right play today. GBP/USD The 4-hour chart shows the Cable trading in an overbought state on the RSI with a bearish cross on the pair's Slow Stochastic Oscillator. This indicates the potential for a downward correction. The Bollinger Bands show the most recent price move has originated at the upper border, indicating the potential to go all the way to the lower border. Traders may want to be short on this pair. USD/JPY Despite the pair failing to break the 98.00 mark, the recent upward correction that has occurred the past two days may have the potential to continue. The daily chart shows a bullish cross has formed on the Slow Stochastic Oscillator, indicating the upward momentum could continue. The price is also floating in the oversold region on the RSI. Going long might be a good strategy. USD/CHF The recent volatile upward movement has pushed the price of this pair into the over-sold territory on the RSI of the 4-hour chart, indicating an upward correction may be in the works. The recent bullish cross on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic supports this notion. Going long might be wise decision today. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-30 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Thu, 30th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Apr-29 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD USD Consolidating towards Heavy Volatility After Monday's sharp gains against the EUR, the U.S. Dollar experienced a steady depreciation against the 16-nation currency throughout Tuesday, declining back towards 1.3200 after seeing a weekly low of 1.2966. The USD also saw depreciation against almost all currency pairs, except the JPY. Interesting to take note of is a few general trends in pairs, such as the GBP/USD and USD/CHF, which seem to be trading in a tightening range, indicating that there is an anxious anticipation for tomorrow's interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve Board. With a decision on the US Federal Funds Rate expected tomorrow at 18:15 GMT, traders may witness some sharp volatility in these pairs directly after the announcement. With the exceedingly positive figure seen in the CB Consumer Confidence report yesterday, mixed with some other general indicators which also point up, is there a possibility that the Fed would consider increasing interest rates? Today will indeed be an interesting day to keep tabs on the movement of the greenback. Considering the Advanced GDP report is due, along with Crude Oil Inventories, which has had a moderate impact lately, the USD is due for heavy volatility. Traders will definitely need to program reminders into their schedule telling them to login to their platforms today and capture some of the sharp movements that many are expecting. EUR EUR and GBP Riding Favorable Winds So much positive economic data has been emerging in recent weeks that risk appetite seems to have made a moderate recovery. As a result, the EUR has posted steady gains over the past 24 hours. Building back up towards 1.3200 against the USD and 1.2700 against the JPY, the 16-nation currency appears to be on the receiving end of portfolio diversification and Euro-Zone confidence. With a number of indicators showing a drastic increase in consumer confidence throughout the Euro-Zone's largest economies, it comes as no surprise that the EUR is trending upwards against all of its currency rivals. However, as there appears to be hardly any news coming from Europe today, the EUR may be put on the back-burner as the US economy leads the pack in economic indicators. The U.S. Federal Funds Rate decision will be released tomorrow and no doubt will be one of the primary driving forces in today's market. While news regarding the EUR may be light this week, the British Pound will not go unnoticed. Much of the European news being released this week may show that the British economy is on track for recovery. It seems about time as Britain appeared to be one of the worst hit economies in this recent recession. If Britain is indeed recovering, the rest of Europe shouldn't be much further off. Watching the indicators emanating from the UK may help traders gauge the direction of the prevailing winds over Europe. So far, European trends appear to be pointing up. JPY JPY Set Back from Increased Risk Appetite As world tourism faces a further set-back due to the outbreak of swine flu in 7 countries, the value of the JPY as a safe-haven from economic risks appears to have continued to drop. The rise in risk appetite, and a continuation of the negative outlook in Japan, has pushed the JPY lower against most of its currency rivals, save the USD. Dropping towards the 127.00 level against the EUR and the 141.00 level versus the Pound, the JPY appears like it may level off in the near future. With a decision from a number of Pacific countries arriving this week on interest rates, traders have the potential to see a level of volatility in the JPY and NZD which is typically uncommon. Traders should look to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) today, as it is set to announce a decision on its national interest rate. Most expectations are for a 50 basis point rate-cut. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also set to announce its latest monetary policy regarding interest rates on Thursday, although this decision will not likely carry much volatility as Japan has held its rates steady for some time now. Crude Oil Crude Oil Declines on Demand Concerns Crude Oil prices fell for a second straight day on concerns that the outbreak of swine flu would delay an economic recovery and further dampen energy demand. Fears of pandemics have slowed the global economy in the past and officials with the World Health Organization, while raising alert levels yesterday, and warned against overreacting. The fear is that the outbreak could discourage people from traveling, lead to closed factories and further hurt the economy and oil consumption. Oil prices rose sharply last month from $40 to above $54 taking their cue from a rally in equity markets. But a new sign of a prolonged recession which has crushed energy demand around the world is again pushing prices lower below the psychological price level of $50. Technical News EUR/USD The pair is continuing to provide mixed results, and is now trading around the 1.3190 level. The daily chart demonstrates a flat line ever since yesterday. The4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic is showing no crosses, which indicate that the bullish trend may continue. Going long appears to be preferable today GBP/USD The typical range trading on the daily chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the hourly chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory. It appears that the possible next move might be a bullish one. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the breach. USD/JPY The 4 hour chart shows the pair does not have a distinct direction, since the chart appears to be quite horizontal. However, the beginning of a bearish move can be detected on the hourly chart, and the Slow Stochastic shows that the bearish momentum still has more room. Going short with tight stops appears to be preferable USD/CHF The typical range trading on the daily chart continues. Both the Daily RSI and the Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. As well on the hourly charts the indicators are providing mixed signals with now specific direction. Good strategy might be to wait for a clearer sign before entering the market on this pair. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-29 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Wed, 29th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Apr-28 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Tue, 28th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Monday, April 27, 2009
Apr-27 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Mon, 27th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-27 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Swine Flu puts Downward Pressure on the USD and Tourism The U.S. Dollar appeared to be losing ground against all of its major currency counterparts towards the end of last week's trading. It dropped to one-week lows against its rivals, falling to 1.3300 against the EUR, 1.4750 against the Pound, and 96.65 against the JPY last Friday. Apparently a number of news events, not wholly related to economic fundamentals, made an impact on the value of the USD last week. With Ecuador claiming that they will continue to use the USD as their currency, the greenback received a modest level of support from the southern Hemisphere, not necessarily unrelated to President Barack Obama's recent meeting with South American leaders. In other news, fears of the recent outbreak of swine flu put a major dent in the Dollar as traders began speculating that U.S. tourism would drop in the coming months as a result, and therefore pulled out from the greenback in exchange for an alternative safe-haven. Also, the run-up to the latest round of G7 and IMF meetings put a slightly positive spin on world stocks and the idea of a balanced investment portfolio. This lent weight to the notion of pulling money away from the USD. The good news for the USD is that it has begun an across-the-board correction during today's early trading hours due to a number of Dollar-positive news events. Recent announcements that Chrysler, an American auto giant, may not need to declare bankruptcy has returned some confidence to the U.S. currency. The impending light news week also has the Dollar prepared to take a seat on the bench for the days ahead. Without driving its own market, the USD is more susceptible to world trends and may therefore be at the mercy of the EUR and JPY this week. With a few potentially damaging reports due, the USD may climb back towards 1.3000 against the EUR and 97.50 against the Yen over the next few days. EUR EUR Positive After PMI and Ifo Provide Surprising Results The EUR gained steady momentum against most of its currency rivals last week. Hitting a one-week high against most of its currency counterparts, the EUR climbed above 1.3300 against the Dollar and near 0.9100 against the Pound Sterling. The question remains as to whether the 16-nation currency can hold onto these advances throughout the coming week. Startling news emerged from the Euro-Zone as the European Union (EU) made overtures towards the idea of Iceland joining the union. After its national bankruptcy last year, the small island country has been struggling to catch up. In economic news, the staggeringly high PMI numbers from the Euro-Zone regional economy generated a strong movement towards the EUR at the end of last week's trading; no doubt adding to the EUR's bullish run. Supporting this bullish momentum was the additional news from the German Ifo Business Climate report which signaled that the Euro-Zone may actually have bottomed and is beginning its steady road to recovery. With the moderate news week ahead for the EUR, we may see the recent strength continue so long as economic fundamentals produce better than expected results like they did last week. However, the optimism which was soaring high at the end of last week, may have corrected itself downward as the realization of an economy hitting rock bottom sank in. While a good signal that the Euro-Zone is starting its recovery. The long road ahead may indeed stymie this bullish movement. Traders may want to look for a downward-correcting EUR this week. JPY JPY's Recent Gains Set to Reverse The Japanese Yen was set to advance itself throughout this week, after gaining steadily against most of its rivals, especially the USD. However, as the Nikkei index opened lower at the start of this week, the Yen's safe-haven move may have ended abruptly this morning. Growing as high as 96.65 against the USD and 127.50 against the EUR, the Yen may now see a correction throughout the impending hours due to poor stock performance and a USD-positive trading session. With the recent scare over the swine flu outbreak in the United States, the JPY was bought up as an alternative safe-haven against the USD as tourism in the U.S. was expected to drop. Nevertheless, the JPY now appears to be paring off its recent gains as stock markets indicate a lack of confidence in the Japanese currency. Traders may look to the Yen depreciating against most of its currency rivals throughout the next few days, especially with a heavy news week for the JPY which may illuminate the inherent weakness of the island economy. Crude Oil Is OPEC Planning Further Production Cuts? After failing to breach the resistance level of $52 a barrel last week, the price of Crude Oil appears to be coming back down. Recent press releases from the various oil ministers in member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have stated that the latest price volatility has been damaging to the future of the oil industry. Such volatile price swings as those seen over the past 8 months can cause irreparable carnage to an industry in need of heavy foreign investment. Without clear data regarding the current supply and demand levels in the world's energy supplies, organizations such as OPEC have little to go on but recent price levels. If prices don't find strong support in the coming weeks, the cartel may be forced to call for further production cuts in order to boost prices back to levels where investment becomes feasible. If oil prices continue where they are, this move may be more likely. Traders need to keep an eye on hawkish statements such as these from members of OPEC as it could signal a shift towards further production cuts, and the possibility of an increase in the value of Crude Oil. Technical News EUR/USD The Slow Stochastic and the RSI on the daily chart are showing a continuation of the current bearish correction. There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the hourly chart. In addition all indicators on the 4 hour chart are pointing down. Going short might be the right choice today GBP/USD After experiencing a mild bullish correction on Thursday, the cable has fully resumed its general bearish trend. The RSI on the 4 hour chart is now floating around the 50 line, indicating that the bearish momentum still has more steam in it. Going short seems to be preferable. USD/JPY The sharp bearish move that took place during the past couple of days seems to have more steam in it. The RSI on the hourly charts is crossed above the 40 line, suggesting that the pair may fall further. The bearish move on the daily's Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. Next target could be 96.20 USD/CHF Our preference: Long @ 1.139 with targets @ 1.1475 & 1.15 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 1.1385 look for further downside with 1.135 & 1.1305 as targets. The RSI is bullish, the pair is on the upside and is challenging its intermediary resistance. Pivot: 1.1385 Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Friday, April 24, 2009
Apr-24 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Dollar Foresees a Bearish Trading Session The U.S currency continued to slip against the EUR yesterday, dropping 1.1% to as low as 1.3150. It also lost ground against many of its other major currency pairs as investors continue to worry about the depth of the U.S. recession. Analysts anticipate the Dollar to slip further and to make a correction against the major currencies in the short-medium term as many forex traders believe that the USD is overvalued. The release of the U.S. Existing Home Sales Report yesterday added to downward pressure on the USD. The report showed that sales of U.S. existing homes fell by 3% in March to a 4.57 million-unit annual rate. This data confirms that the U.S. housing market is still weak. Another report showed the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 27,000 last week to 640,000 as forecast, while total benefit rolls reached a record, indicating the continuous deterioration of the U.S. labor market. Later today, there are several important economic data releases coming out of the U.S. The most important of these publications is the Core Durable Goods Order indicator at 12:30 GMT. The release is expected to be lower than the previous figure, meaning the USD could continue its bearish behavior today. Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow this release. EUR EUR Soars vs. the Dollar The EUR rallied yesterday against the Dollar as encouraging news about the European economy and banking system sparked hope that the 16-country Euro-Zone may be emerging from the depths of recession. The EUR touched a one-week high versus the Dollar and closed at 1.3150. The European currency finished 100 pips higher against the JPY to finish yesterday's trading session at the 128.00 level. The Euro-Zone's manufacturing and services sector recorded their best performance in 6 months, while industrial orders fell by less than analysts had anticipated. The survey showed a significant improvement, thereby boosting hopes that the rate of decline in the Euro-Zone economy is now moderating after a particularly torrid 4th quarter of 2008 and 1st quarter of 2009. The reduced contraction in manufacturing activity in April suggests that the sector is starting to benefit from the massive de-stocking that has taken place. Today, there are many news events coming out of the Euro-Zone and Britain. From the Euro-Zone, investors are advised to follow the French Consumer Spending and German Ifo Business Climate figures that are set to be released at 6:45 and 8:00 GMT respectively. Britain is also set to release Retail Sales figures at 8.30 GMT. The results of these data releases are likely to set the pace for the EUR and Pound in today's trading. JPY Yen Declines as the Japanese Economy Plummets Japan sank deeper into recession in the 1st quarter since Toyota, Honda and Nissan, Japan's three biggest automakers, slashed production last month. Japanese automakers have pared production as the global recession and rising unemployment sap demand for vehicles worldwide. Having reduced inventory, and with governments taking steps to revive demand, some carmakers, including Toyota and Nissan, are now planning to ease cuts. As a result of negative economic news that came out of Japan yesterday, the JPY finished yesterday's trading session lower against several of its major currency pairs. This was seen against the EUR, pushing the EUR/JPY pair to 128.55. Also, the Yen fell against the GBP, as the pair closed at 0.8960. Looking to today, the Yen may continue its downward slide against its major currency pairs as Japanese investors seek short-term profits from the Japanese stock market. OIL Crude Oil Eyes $50 a Barrel Crude Oil rose 1.6% yesterday as the Dollar dropped against its major currency pairs, bolstering the appeal of commodities. In addition, Oil's gains came despite swelling U.S. crude inventories, which hit a fresh 19-year high last week. Prices rose around $1 to $49.70 per barrel, but have dropped from last week's high of above $52 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that Crude Oil supplies rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending April 17, marking the sixth weekly gain in a row. Over the past four weeks, Americans consumed on average of 18.5 million barrels a day of petroleum products, a decline of 6.5% from the same period a year earlier, despite the dramatic plunge in Oil prices from peaks above $147 a barrel in July 2008. If demand of Crude continues to decline, then this will lead to continuing downward pressure on the price of Crude in the short-medium term. Technical News EUR/USD The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the hourly chart's RSI indicating an upward correction might be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. Going long with tight stops might be the right choice today. GBP/USD The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the 4 chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the breach takes place. USD/JPY The pair has finally ceased range-trading and has recently moved downward; however, the price currently floats in the over-sold territory on the hourly and 4-hour chart's RSI, signaling an upward correction may be imminent. Going long with tight stops might be the right choice today. USD/CHF The bearish momentum the pair has shown since the breach of the channel on the daily chart continues. The 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic is showing the continuation of the trend, and the hourly studies also confirm the bearish notion. Going short might be the right choice today. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-24 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Fri, 24th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Apr-22 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Wed, 22th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-22 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Greenback Advanced vs. the EUR on Crisis Concerns The Dollar rose to a 5-week high against the EUR as concern the global financial crisis will worsen. This fear boosted demand for the U.S. currency. Renewed worries over the financial turmoil are making investors risk-averse again. In the market's current direction, the Dollar and the Yen are likely to be favored by the investors, analysts said. The USD traded at $1.2899 per EUR as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2921 in New York yesterday. The U.S. currency declined however more than 1% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollar and CHF on reduced concerns about bank balance sheets. This may prompt investors to shift funds to higher-yielding assets. The Dollar has lost more than 10% in the past 2-months against the AUD and NZD on signs the global economic slump may be weakening. The USD also weakened after Treasury Secretary Geithner said that the vast majority of U.S. banks still have sufficient capital, thus reducing the greenback's risk haven appeal. The market is awaiting the outcome of the U.S. authorities' stress tests on banks. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said most U.S. banks had enough capital to keep lending but a pile of bad debts are fostering doubts about their health and slowing a recovery. The Federal Reserve plans to release its test results on May 4. The tests are being used to determine whether the companies have enough capital to cover losses over the next 2 years should the recession worsen. EUR EUR Rebounds on Positive German Sentiment The EUR advanced for the first time in 4 days against the Yen after a report showed German investor confidence in April increased to its highest level in almost 2 years. The European currency has also climbed slightly against the U.S Dollar after the ZEW index rose to 13, from minus 3.5 in March. The currency rose 0.3% to 126.84 Yen, and to $1.2957, from $1.2921 yesterday, and after reaching $1.2990 earlier. The currency market is highly volatile at the moment, reversing steep moves from one day to the next, and the EUR gained on Tuesday as an improvement in German investor confidence lifted stock markets and helped pull commodity currencies higher. However the EUR gains might be limited and needs to be treated with caution. The Euro currency continues to suffer from risk aversion and expectations of a major change in European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, largely imposed on the central bank by deteriorating internal and external conditions. Any gains in the EUR will likely be limited and the currency may trade as low as $1.24 by the end of the month. This is due to the uncertainty over what unconventional policy steps the European Central Bank may adopt next month. The central bank is expected to cut Interest Rates below their current 1.25%. Analysts also expect the ECB to have to resort to flooding the banking system with money to promote lending and growth, though what method the ECB might use remains in doubt. JPY Yen Bullish Day on Strong Export Numbers The Japanese currency rose against 15 out of 16 most-traded currencies after Japan's Ministry of Finance said custom-cleared exports declined 45.6% in March from a year earlier, following a record drop of 49.4% in February. The trade balance data seem to suggest that Japan's economic slump may also ease somewhat in the last quarter. The Yen climbed against the Dollar and the EUR after a government report showed exports fell at a slower pace; spurring speculation the worst of the nation's recession may be over. The JPY climbed to 98.29 per USD from 98.73 yesterday. Against the EUR, Japan's currency advanced to 127.09 from 127.81. OIL Oil Continues to Trade on Under Stress Crude Oil prices finished largely unchanged after an industry report showed U.S. stockpiles fell, raising optimism that fuel demand has increased as the economic crisis abated. The gains came as U.S. stock markets rose roughly 1% after industrial bellwether United Technologies posted results that beat Wall Street expectations and bank shares rebounded. The price of Crude plunged as low as $46.70, only to rebound as the gains in U.S. stock markets occurred. Oil prices have been tracking moves in equities closely in recent months as traders look for signs of a recovery from the economic slowdown that has curbed global demand for Oil for the first time in a quarter century. Crude prices have been trading in a range between $46 and $55 for the past month, after rallying steadily since February from $33 a barrel, helped by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC's compliance with agreed supply cuts. The producer group has already cut member output quotas by 4.2 million barrels per day since September. Technical News EUR/USD The pair has been trading within a restricted range lately, and is currently traded at the 1.2940 level. a double dojy formation on the daily chart indicates that a strong movement is expected, and as a bullish cross takes place on the Slow Stochastic, it appears that an upward move could be imminent. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today. GBP/USD The daily chart shows that the bearish channel was breached as the cable is currently traded for 1.4640. Furthermore, on the 1-hour chart, the RSI has bottomed beneath the over-sold boarder, and is currently pointing up, suggesting that the bullish trend might continue farther. Going long appears to be the preferable choice today. USD/JPY The pair is continuing its bearish momentum as it is traded now around the 98.30 level. A bearish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic suggests that the bearish move may have more room to go, with the potential of reaching as low as the 97.60 level. USD/CHF The trend-line has been relatively flat for the last few days, as the pair is currently traded around the 1.1680 level. A triple doji formation on the 4-hour chart indicates that a sharp movement is expected, and as the MACD is pointing down, it appears that going short could be the right choice today. EUR/JPY The bearish trend is showing signs the end may be nearing as the daily chart shows a bullish cross has formed on the slow stochastic, signaling the pair could reverse shortly. This is reinforced as the price is trading in the undervalued zone on the chart's Relative Strength Index. This could be a good opportunity for forex traders to get out in front of the pair's correction. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Apr-21 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Tue, 21th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-21 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD Drop in Equities Leads to a Higher Dollar The Dollar continued its bullish run yesterday, appreciating for the 6th day in a row against the EUR as the pair reached a one-month low. Driving the Dollar's gains were losses in U.S. equity markets which were sparked by renewed banking fears and worries of a delayed U.S. economic recovery. At the end of the day Monday, the EUR was at $1.2907 from 1.3008. The British Pound was at $1.4482 from 1.4470 The greenback appreciated during most of the day's trading, but the gains accelerated after first quarter earnings reported from Bank of America sparked renewed tension in the banking sector. Heavy losses were seen in U.S. equity markets as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.56%. This prompted traders to move from positions of higher yielding currencies to more safe-haven bets such as the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The losses seen in the Dollar as the Fed unveiled its quantitative easing program have been erased as the Dollar experiences another bullish run under a period of less risk taking. Higher equity losses have reduced trader's appetite for riskier currencies, lending strength to the Dollar. This trend could see its first reversal today as Treasury Secretary Geithner is scheduled to speak at 2:00pm GMT. Testimony from Geithner often leads to periods of high volatility in the forex market. The EUR/USD could strengthen above the 1.3000 mark again later today after his speech. EUR EUR Continues to Decline Against the Pound and Dollar The EUR continues to weaken amid further loses in equity markets and reduced risk levels in the currency market. The EUR/USD has now shed all of its gains since the U.S. Federal Reserve began its program of quantitative easing 1-month ago. Some market analysts believe the depreciation of the EUR coincides with the strengthening of the corporate bond market that also occurred three weeks ago. For the past three weeks the EUR has shed 4% against the Dollar and 2% against the GBP. This losing trend for the EUR versus the Pound could continue today as key economic data is due to be released from both the Euro-Zone and Britain. German ZEW Economic Sentiment is forecasted to make a large improvement from the previous reading while important inflation data will be eyed from England. Yearly CPI is measured against the target rate of inflation set by the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE appears to be ahead of the curve in setting monetary policy. The inflation numbers may come in line and help to strengthen the Pound today, perhaps to the 0.8825 level. JPY Less Risk Taking Helps the Yen Rise Across the Board The Japanese Yen was a big benefactor from yesterday's flight to safety as the JPY made considerable gains against its major crosses. Declines in U.S. equities had traders scrambling to readjust their positions as market participants sold higher yielding currencies for the safety of the Japanese Yen. This sank the USD/JPY to 97.78 from 99.30. The GBP/JPY fell to 141.64 from 146.69. The EUR/JPY also dropped to 126.21 from 129.29. Two scenarios could play out in the trading of the Yen today. If declines in equity markets continue for the second day in a row, these may again lower trader's appetite for riskier currencies and boost the Yen. However, yesterday's gains may be short lived due to the release of the Japanese Trade Balance. This economic indicator may show worse than expected results as the Japanese export industry has been severely hurt during the economic recession. Past indicators have shown export numbers dropping dramatically. This has the potential to weaken the Yen in the short term horizon. Oil Oil Plunges on Renewed Economic Concerns The price of Crude Oil plunged today on fears of a deepening economic recession in the U.S. The dramatic sell-off occurred after the release of first quarter earnings from Bank of America. The day ended with the price of Crude Oil trading at $48.64. This was 7% lower than today's opening price. The sell-off was very characteristic of traders fleeing riskier investments for those that are considered safe havens. Currencies such as the Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and commodities such as Gold and Silver experienced sharp appreciation yesterday. Such a sharp drop in price may have left Crude Oil in an oversold position. The $50 mark may leave some room for profits in Oil trading. Technical News EUR/USD The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. GBP/USD The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in the over-sold territory, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. USD/JPY The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. The daily chart Slow Stochastic is floating in neutral territory. However, the pair currently sits near the bottom border of the 4 hour chart's RSI, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. USD/CHF There is a fresh bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. The downward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the downward breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Monday, April 20, 2009
April 20 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Mon, 20th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-20 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD USD Moves Up against Rivals After ending last week slightly higher versus most of its currency counterparts, the USD began this week's trading with a continuation of its recent uptrend, appreciating against every currency rival except the JPY. Dropping below the 1.3000 level against the EUR this morning, and near 1.4700 against the Pound, the Dollar's strength appears to be on schedule for further upward movement against these majors. The only pair to beat out the USD this morning has been the Japanese Yen, considering many traders are beginning to hedge their bets on the value of the Dollar as the number one safe-haven investment. This may come as a result of the perception that the Dollar may see weakness in the future as investors pull out of the forex market and back into the stock market due to increased risk appetite and uncertainty in various equity markets. As the future decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) appear to be foggy, traders are not expecting much correction to take place in the EUR/USD's recent downward movement and are instead going short on the EUR where possible. Last week, traders saw a flurry of economic news affecting the American economy and practically zero news emanating from Europe. This week appears to be the exact opposite. A blizzard of economic events is expected from the Euro-Zone and very little is scheduled to be released from the United States. Forex traders should definitely pay closer attention to the EUR and GBP markets this week as they will be in the driver's seat of the market for the days ahead. EUR EUR's Movement Negative, but Busy News Week May Prove Fruitful The EUR apparently can't catch a break these days. With a steady depreciation against the majors, the EUR looks like last week's loser, and may continue to hold that title throughout this week as well. Dropping below important price barriers against the USD and JPY, but holding steady against the GBP, the EUR's value may be due to recent analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) than anything else. Delivering a speech in which uncertainty seemed to be the major headline, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet apparently only made matters worse for the 16-nation currency. This indecisiveness no doubt comes from the fundamental differences in solutions perceived to be necessary for the economic conditions of the diverse countries which make up the European Monetary Union (EMU). With a multitude of ethnic, linguistic, and cultural backgrounds, each member country brings with it a unique perspective on this recent crisis as well as a different interpretation on what is required to fix this downturn for the interests of each individual country. Disunity reigns supreme in Europe, and the U.S. and Japanese currencies are the beneficiaries. On the upside for the EUR this week is the slew of data emanating from the Euro-Zone regional economy. With an abnormally busy news week, the Euro-Zone may, for the first time in months, outshine the Dollar and take control of the forex market this week. Traders will absolutely want to tune in to the economic indicators emanating from Europe and the U.K. throughout the week. Most importantly are the two confidence reports, the ZEW Sentiment and German Ifo Business Climate reports, due out Wednesday and Friday respectively. JPY Gains on Wall Street and an Indecisive ECB Leads JPY Higher The Japanese Yen appears to be on the receiving end of large buying session as traders pounce into the Asian currency to hedge against less certain investments like the EUR, GBP and even the U.S. Dollar. Dropping below key support levels against the EUR and GBP, the JPY appears to be on a fresh bullish run which could have much more room to grow if markets continue like they have the past few days. Slicing through the 145.80 price level against the Pound, and below 129.00 against the EUR, the Yen's recent strength may have much to do with the recent uncertainty in monetary policy decisions within the European Central Bank (ECB) and the rising uptrend in the U.S. stock markets. As usual, this week will not be seeing much economic news coming from the island economy, but with so much attention focused on Wall Street and a stale-mated ECB lately, Japan may not need to take the reins to steer its own market to new heights. Traders should be keeping an eye on the European markets this week as its news will no doubt be the guiding force behind this week's market. OIL Global Demand for Oil May Continue Falling; Will its Price Follow? After last Friday's jump in oil prices, the cost of buying a barrel of Light Sweet Crude has apparently begun to fall after reports showed that the U.S. economy is still forecasting a contraction. With the world's top oil consumer declaring that it's demand for Crude Oil is going to continue falling, and with current production levels being estimated as too high to support prices, traders may be seeing the start of a new downward trend in the price of Crude Oil this week. Starting last Friday between $51 and $52 per barrel, the price of Crude Oil subsequently jumped to as high as $53 by mid-day. However, during today's early trading hours, the price of Crude Oil has apparently begun to decline and is currently trading at $51.50. With a few analysts claiming that oil remains slightly over-valued, we could see a sell-off in black gold through late-afternoon today. Technical News EUR/USD There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the hourly chart, as the pair is now traded around 1.3005. A breach through that level will validate a very strong bearish move with a potential target price of 1.2945. Going short might be a wise choice today. GBP/USD The cable is continuing to deliver coherent bearish signals, and is now traded around the 1.4700 level. On the hourly chart, the current price has dropped beneath the Bollinger Bands lower boarder, suggesting that the pair should drop once more. Going short might be the right choice today. USD/JPY After a few days of falling prices, it seems that the pair has reached its bearish peak at 98.90. As all oscillators on the 1 hour chart are pointing up, a bullish correction might be impending. Going long with tight stops could be a good strategy USD/CHF The pair has breached through the Fibonacci key level of 1.1607, and all oscillators on the 4 hours chart are indicating further bullish movement. The hourlies Bollinger Bands are showing that the price has crossed its upper border, signaling that the current trend should continue, as the pair's new target price might be 1.1719. EUR/GBP After recently peaking at the 0.9004 level, the pair is consistently dropping. Currently, as all indicators are giving bearish signals, it appears that the pair will extend its downtrend. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to join a very popular trend. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Friday, April 17, 2009
Apr-17 Market Commentary and Technical Levels
Fri, 17th of April, 2009 EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDJPY Outlook
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
USDCHF Outlook
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |
Apr-17 Daily forex analysis
| by: Forexyard Economic News USD U.S. Dollar Rises on Positive Economic Data The greenback rose against most other major currencies on Thursday due to speculation that the U.S. economy is starting to show some tentative signs of stability, thus boosting demand for the USD. Early U.S. economic data showed a decline in initial jobless claims, a plunge in U.S. housing starts and a slower rate of decline in manufacturing in the Philadelphia region. In late afternoon trading, the Dollar was up 0.4% versus the EUR to $1.3170 after rising to a session high of $1.3128. The USD was also high against the Pound gaining 0.4% to $1.4917. The greenback, however, gave up nearly all of its earlier losses against the Japanese Yen. It was last down less than 0.1% at 99.28 Yen. The Dollar has tended to gain ground during periods of economic uncertainty and financial turmoil, benefiting from falling equities as investors flee into other Dollar-denominated assets. The Dollar tends to rise on bad news because it is often seen as a safer place to park money during periods of market uncertainty and heightened risk aversion. In a sign that the world economy is still struggling, figures on Thursday showed China's annual economic growth slowed to its weakest rate on record in the first quarter, while Euro-Zone industrial output plummeted in February. This weak economic data from around the world has reduced confidence that the global economy would recover anytime soon, therefore boosting safe-haven flows into the U.S. currency. EUR The EUR Loses Momentum The European currency pared most of its losses against the Dollar. It was last down 0.3% at 1.3177 versus the USD. Against the Yen, the EUR traded at 130.95, after depreciating yesterday as much as 1.6% to 129.37. The currency may extend its decline against the Yen even further, after falling to the lowest level this month on speculation that policy disagreement among the region's central bankers will undermine efforts to end the recession. Separate figures showed Euro-Zone industrial output plummeted by a record 18.4% year-on-year in February and inflation halved to an all-time low, reinforcing expectations that the 16-nation economy is deteriorating and that interest rates may fall more. The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce on May 7th whether it will follow counterparts in the U.S. and the U.K. in pumping money into the economy by purchasing assets. ECB policy-makers have already indicated they may support cutting the 1.25% target rate below 1% and purchasing debt securities to pump money into the ailing economy. Analysts have said that the EUR is likely to remain bearish due to market distrust of the European economic outlook. The European currency will probably fall below the strong support level of 1.2900 later in the month. JPY Yen Gains On China's Disappointing GDP The Yen jumped against the Dollar and other major currencies on Thursday after data showed China's economic growth slowed to its weakest on record, disappointing market players who had bought higher-yielding currencies in anticipation of more upbeat numbers. China's annual GDP growth slowed to 6.1% in the first quarter from 6.8% in the final three months of last year, prompting market players to reverse positions and buy the Yen back. The Japanese currency jumped 0.3% against the USD to 99.15 Yen, and 2% against the GBP to 148.63 Yen. The Japanese currency's biggest gains yesterday were versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars on speculation that the slowdown in China's economic expansion will deepen the world's recession. The JPY rose as much as 2.4% against the Aussie to 70.69 yen, and versus the New Zealand dollar, it appreciated 2.9% to 56.05 yen. These gains may continue through the rest of April. Crude Oil Crude Oil Gains on U.S. Jobs Data Crude Oil prices rose above $50 a barrel on Thursday, after the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, witnessed the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fall last week, but continuing claims rose to a record as the recession struck hard. However, its gains remained limited as mixed data from the United States and China reminded investors that any signs of economic recovery were tentative. Crude Oil trading remained volatile during the session, as investors also digested separate sets of gloomy economic data from the U.S. and other countries. Cautious trading in U.S. stock markets also weighed on Crude Oil prices. News that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall 560,000 barrels per day in the 4 weeks to May 2, was also supportive for prices recently. Technical News EUR/USD There appears to be a violent breach of the lower border on the hourly chart's Bollinger Bands, signaling a short-term upward correction may be imminent. However, the tightening of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour and daily charts signifies that another volatile movement may be in the works. Recent pressures have signaled that there remains downward pressure on this pair. Going short might be a wise choice today. GBP/USD There appears to be a bullish cross forming on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling an impending upward correction. As other oscillators are showing the price floating in neutral territory, and the Bollinger Bands tightening on all charts, there is a possibility of a volatile upward movement in the making. Going long with tight stops might be a good strategy today. USD/JPY After yesterday's moderate upward movement, this pair now appears to be leveling off as all oscillators and indicators are displaying neutrality. It's possible a trend-reversal is in the making, but traders may want to wait for a clearer signal before going short on this pair today. USD/CHF The recent volatile upward movement has pushed the price of this pair into the over-bought territory on the RSI of both the hourly and 4-hour charts, indicating a downward correction may be in the works. The recent bearish cross on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic supports this notion. Going short might be wise today. GBP/CHF The upward movement, which has sustained itself on this pair for over a week now, has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the RSI of the hourly, 4-hour and daily charts. The weekly Momentum oscillator is showing a sharp downward direction and there appears to be a bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic. All of these indications point to a future depreciation in this pair. Forex traders have a great opportunity to enter this impending trend at an early stage today. Labels: Forex Analysis, forex signal, Forex Trend, Market Analysis, Market Trend, money trading |