Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





February 2007 March 2007 September 2007 November 2007 December 2007 February 2008 May 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011




Easy-Forex
Master-Forex
Forex-Factory
Forex-tsd
ForexYard
Forex Education
Marketiva
OnLine Forex



Blogger

FinalSense

Amazon

Yahoo

Ebay



Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Mar-31 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Tue, 31th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3113 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.3197. On 4 chart we have a Hammer candlestick formation around 50% Fibo retracement area at 1.3100 suggesting a strong support and potential upside rebound. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3250. Break above that resistance could trigger further bullish momentum back towards 1.3435 area. Initial support at 1.3100 area. Break below that support area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2950. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

eurusd4hchart10

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3112
  • S2= 1.3027
  • S3= 1.2941
  • R1= 1.3283
  • R2= 1.3369
  • R3= 1.3454

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD hit my short target at 1.4150, even lower, bottomed at 1.4110 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.4264. On 4h chart we can see that the bearish power failed to make a breakdown below the trendline support and then rebounded back to the upside. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A valid break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish scenario testing 1.4000 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4280 followed by 1.4360. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart17

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4151
  • S2= 1.4038
  • S3= 1.3966
  • R1= 1.4336
  • R2= 1.4408
  • R3= 1.4521

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY slipped to the downside hit low at 95.97 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 97.24. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We have a “flag” formation on 4h chart suggesting a potential bullish scenario. At the same time, CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure. Breakout to the upside of “flag” area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 98.80 area.

usdjpy4hchart7

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.04
  • S2= 94.84
  • S3= 93.71
  • R1= 98.37
  • R2= 99.50
  • R3= 100.70

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.1547 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.1484 made a Doji formation on daily chart indicating an indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1450. Initial resistance at 1.1550. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

usdchfdaily5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1433
  • S2= 1.1382
  • S3= 1.1325
  • R1= 1.1541
  • R2= 1.1598
  • R3= 1.1649

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-31 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Threat of Auto Bankruptcy Spurs Dollar Buying

The Dollar continued its appreciation yesterday as fears of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. auto industry sparked safe haven currency bets. Losses in U.S. equity markets triggered by autos and bank worries also helped to bring traders to the Dollar. The EUR/USD finished the day at 1.3190 from 1.3268, while the GBP/USD ended at 1.4256 from 1.4276.

Yesterday there was little reason for Forex Traders to take positions in riskier currencies. Over the weekend Treasury Secretary Geithner said some banks may need further capital injections. Also shaping the markets was the Obama administration's position that it may prefer a bankruptcy filing of an auto maker versus further bailouts. Now a looming threat of a General Motors or Chrysler bankruptcy filing hangs over the head of the market. A situation like this could have a detrimental effect on the financial markets as the debt of these two companies is widely held throughout the global financial system.

Looking to today's trading, traders should be aware of the release of Canadian monthly GDP at 12:30 GMT. The USD/CAD appreciated by 1.2% today as the market anticipates a contraction of Canadian GDP by 0.6% in January. If the result comes in worse than the forecasted value, look for the USD/CAD to rise close to the 1.2700 resistance level.


EUR

Is Inflation a Concern for the EUR?

The EUR appears to be in a correction as the currency's gains on the Dollar are unraveling. The currency has slid the past 2 days amid concerns of future monetary policy moves by the European Central Bank (ECB) and a drop in risk tolerance. Yesterday the EUR finished lower against the Dollar while the EUR/GBP fell to 0.9250 from 0.9312.

Market forecasts have the ECB slashing rates by another 50 basis points later this week. However a debate still rages whether the ECB will take further measures to ease the strained European credit markets through a program of buying long term government bonds. This would follow a move taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Yesterday ECB President Trichet addressed the European Parliament and said that the European economy has weakened since the beginning of the year. Also notable was the downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of Ireland.

Today the EUR may be impacted by the release of the yearly CPI Flash Estimate. It is an early indicator of inflation in the EU. Trichet yesterday mentioned that there is no significant risk of deflation and the ECB has set a target rate of inflation near 2%. The Flash Estimate is forecasted to rise by 0.7%. A higher number that contradicts Trichet's statement yesterday may hurt the EUR further during today's trading.


JPY

Yen Boosted by Risk Adverse Trades

Yesterday the USD/JPY saw heavy volatility on the heels of the Obama administration favoring an orderly bankruptcy of the American auto manufactures and large losses in equity markets. The pair ended at 98.15 from 97.75. The EUR/JPY also experienced heavy volatility yesterday, reaching as low as 126.40 to close at 130.05 from an opening price of 129.76. This was the strongest the Yen has been against the EUR in the past 11 days.

In early morning hours of the Japanese trading session, the Yen began to slip after Japanese unemployment numbers came in worse than expected. Some economists believe that unemployment rates may not yet have peaked. As the number of Japanese exports continues to decline, manufacturers will eventually cut back on costs in the form of further workforce reductions. Traders will be watching for the release of the Tankan Manufacturing Index later today. It is a key gauge of market sentiment in the Japanese economy. The release of poor results for this indicator could send the Yen lower against the other majors.


Oil

Crude Drops below $50

The price of Crude Oil has once again dropped below the psychological price level of $50. Crude Oil shed 4.5% yesterday as fears of bankruptcy for the Big 3 American auto manufacturers hurt the demand for Crude and sent equity markets lower. The recent recovery in the Dollar has also been a source of restrain in the price of Crude Oil.

The market has once again sent the price of Crude lower as the global economy shows very few signs of recovery. Continued job losses and equity losses have dropped the price of Crude Oil from last week's high of $54. Traders may not see any support today as the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will be released today at 2:00pm GMT. Don't be surprised to see a gloomy reading from American consumers. This may send Oil lower today, near the $48 price level.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the Hourly Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart's Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.


USD/CHF
Narrow range trading continues as the pair did not make a significant move in either direction, and is currently traded around the 1.1480 level. The 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

Labels: , , , , ,

Monday, March 30, 2009
Mar-30 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Mon, 30th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Finally, the EURUSD made a breakdown to the downside from the ranging area of 1.3735 – 1.3435. After break below 1.3435, the pair made a significant downside movement, bottomed at 1.3256 and closed at 1.3285 on Friday. The bias is bearish is nearest term targeting 1.3090 and 1.2990 area. However we seem to have a strong support at 1.3250 area. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.3285 – 1.3315 resistance area.

eurusd4hchart9

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3164
  • S2= 1.3043
  • S3= 1.2830
  • R1= 1.3498
  • R2= 1.3711
  • R3= 1.3832

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had another bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4266 and closed at 1.4316. On 4h chart we can see that the support trendline has been violated to the downside suggesting a potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.4150 area. However CCI is in oversold area and heading up on 4h chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.4330/50 resistance area.

gbpusd4hchart16

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4224
  • S2= 1.4132
  • S3= 1.3998
  • R1= 1.4450
  • R2= 1.4584
  • R3= 1.4676

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair was traded lower, bottomed at 97.11 and closed at 97.83. On hourly chart we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Expect a potential ranging market between 98.80 – 96.80 area. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

usdjpyhourly10

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.01
  • S2= 96.20
  • S3= 95.29
  • R1= 98.73
  • R2= 99.64
  • R3= 100.45

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made a significant bullish momentum on Friday. After break above 1.1360, the pair topped at 1.1478 and closed at 1.1439. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.1550 and 1.1650 area. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside pressure testing 1.1390 support area.

usdchf4hchart9

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1281
  • S2= 1.1123
  • S3= 1.1025
  • R1= 1.1537
  • R2= 1.1635
  • R3= 1.1793

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-30 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Could the Dollar Continue Its Bullish Trend?

Last week gave some extraordinary opportunities for Forex traders to make profits from going long on the U.S Dollar. The two leading fronts on which the USD marked unique gains are against the EUR and the GBP.

It appears that the USD saw this bullish trend as a result of some unexpected positive news, especially regarding the housing sector. Last week, both the Existing Home Sales, and the New Home Sales, delivered better than expected figures, reflecting in 4.72M residential buildings that were sold during February, and in 337K new single-family homes that were sold during February as well. This data came as a big surprise, as analysts had quite gloomy predictions for the two reports, and therefore turned a very strong uptrend for the Dollar. In addition, as you all must remember, this entire recession began as a result of a deep crisis in the U.S home sector, and now a series of positive result from that sector has managed to elevate the USD so rapidly. Another positive data which came last week were the Durable Goods Orders indices which delivered both much better than expected figures. Whilst analysts anticipated negative growth in the total value of new purchased orders for durable goods during February, the real figures showed almost 4.0% growths.

As for the week ahead, two major events will most likely determine the Dollar's direction for the upcoming week. The first will be the Pending Home Sales which is currently expected to continue to positive line of the housing sector; however a surprising negative result could create some worries among investors regarding the U.S economy. The second major news event will of course be the Non-Farm Employment Change, expected on Friday, 12:30 GMT. as proven many times before, investors are putting a lot of faith in the credibility of this survey, and as such react immediately to its results.

Traders are advised to follow those two leading economic indicators as they are likely to set the tone for the USD trading this week.


EUR

Would the ECB Cut Interest Rates to 1.00% Later On This Week?

An extremely volatile week, which included many ups and downs, concluded with a deep drop for the EUR. The EUR/USD dropped to almost 1.32, and the EUR/JPY fell below 129.50.

The first reason for the EUR drop was the strengthening Dollar, which rose against the EUR as well. The second and even greater reason was the unwillingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to create a rescue plan for the European Nation, which could somehow imitate the American plan. Investors are now seeing the U.S economy as a dynamic, flexible economy, in which its leaders are doing all they can in order to salvage the situation while they can. On the other hand, the European monetary system is beginning to be seen as a conservative organization, which is reluctant to react to the rapidly changing conditions of the global economy. Investors are thirsty for a European rescue plan, and if one shall arrive, it will probably signal an uptrend for the European currency.

As for this week, the ECB will announce the new Minimum Bid Rate on Thursday, and is widely expected to cut Interest Rates by 0.5% to merely 1.00%. Some might say that this move is too little, too late, as the U.S, Japan and Great Britain have all lowered their Rates below 1.00%, without succeeding in making a real change in their economies. Nevertheless, if indeed the ECB will decide to cut Interest Rates, an immediate reaction of a drop in EUR value is expected.

Forex traders are also advised to follow Jean-Claude Trichet's speech on Monday, as he may discuss the possibility of cutting Interest Rates. Such comments could have massive influence on the market.


JPY

The JPY Looks to Halt Its Bullish Momentum

Over the last trading week the JPY saw rising trends against the EUR and the GBP, and experienced mixed results vs. the USD. The JPY underwent it most remarkable bullish trend against the EUR, as the EUR/JPY dropped to the 129.40 level.

Last week the Japanese Trade Balance showed a difference of -0.04T between exported to imported goods during February. Although this is a negative figure, it was much better than the -0.29T which was expected. This indicator has an immense impact on the Japanese economy as it relies greatly on its export activity. Also last week, the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in price of goods and services, rose by 0.4% in March, also indicating that the Japanese economy is on the phase of expanding, and not contracting.

As for the week ahead, most of the impacting data will be delivered from the Euro-Zone and the U.S economy. Nevertheless, traders should follow the Tankan Indices, which are expected on Tuesday night. These surveys cover a wide range of the local manufacturers, and thus have a large impact on the Yen. Analysts forecast extremely negative figures for the indices, and such result might generate a bearish trend for the JPY.


OIL

Will Crude Oil Reaches Below $50 a barrel?

Crude Oil prices has dropped dramatically just before the weekend. After peaking at over $54 a barrel, Crude Oil is currently traded for $51.50 a barrel. Crude Oil prices fell predominantly as a result of the surging Dollar. Crude Oil is priced in Dollars, and as such, a rising trend for the USD tends to have to opposite affect on Crude Oil.

Another data that helped to lower Oil prices was the U.S Crude Oil Inventories indicator from Wednesday, which came higher-than-expected, reflecting 3.3M additional barrels of Crude Oil held in inventory by commercial firms from the previous week. The combination of high supply and strong Dollar are a simple formula for dropping Crude Oil prices.

As for this week, traders should follow global economic news, especially from the U.S, as they are likely to determine Oil prices. Traders are advised to keep notice that for as long as the USD continues to appreciate, Crude Oil prices might continue to decline, as low as $50 a barrel!


Technical News

EUR/USD
The 4 hour chart is showing that the pair is still floating within its bearish channel. However, the RSI on the daily has crossed the 30 line, indicating that the market is oversold. The Slow Stochastic on the 4 hour chart is also showing a fresh bullish cross, suggesting that a bullish trend might take place. Going long with tight stops appears to be preferable.


GBP/USD
The bearish trend continues with plenty of steam as the pair now floats around 1.4210. The RSI of the hourly charts indicates that there is still more room to run. The next target price might be 1.4143. Going short with tight stops seems like the right choice today.


USD/JPY
The 4 hour chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the Daily Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/CHF
There is a very distinct bullish formation continues on the hourly level, as the pair is now floating in its lower section. In addition, all oscillators on the daily chart are pointing up, suggesting that the bullish move might extend. Going long might be the right strategy today.

Labels: , , , , ,

Friday, March 27, 2009
Mar-27 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Fri, 27th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD still made no significant movement yesterday, trapped between 1.3735 – 1.3435 area. We have no clear direction so far and remain in the “no trade zone”. Daily CCI just cross the 100 line down suggesting a potential bearish view, but as long as price stay above 1.3435 the bearish scenario is not yet confirmed. Consistent movement below 1.3435 could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2990 area.

eurusd4hchart8

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3467
  • S2= 1.3408
  • S3= 1.3323
  • R1= 1.3611
  • R2= 1.3696
  • R3= 1.3755

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had another bearish momentum yesterday. On 4h chart we can see that the pair is now in a very important phase where price testing the support trendline. The bias is bearish in nearest term but I think it’s better to wait until the trendline support violated to the downside before jump into the market targeting 1.4250 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart so watch out for a potential upside pressure testing 1.4510 resistance area.

gbpusd4hchart15

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4375
  • S2= 1.4291
  • S3= 1.4161
  • R1= 1.4589
  • R2= 1.4719
  • R3= 1.4803

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On 4h chart we can see that the trendline resistance has been violated to the upside suggesting potential bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 99.70 area. However CCI about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 98.00/30 support area.

usdjpy4hchart6

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 97.87
  • S2= 96.94
  • S3= 96.45
  • R1= 99.29
  • R2= 99.78
  • R3= 100.71

USDCHF Outlook
Still no significant movement. Keep stay away from the market until we have a valid breakout/down from the choppy area (1.1360 – 1.1170). Daily CCI about to cross the -100 line up suggesting a potential bullish view. Break above 1.1360 could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.1470 area.

usdchfdaily4

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1205
  • S2= 1.1140
  • S3= 1.1099
  • R1= 1.1311
  • R2= 1.1352
  • R3= 1.1417

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-27 Daily forex analysis
by: forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Recovery Continues

The Dollar rose yesterday against most of its major rivals as riskier currencies fell out of favor. Despite strong gains in U.S. equities, the Dollar gained ground as the likelihood of further European Interest Rate cuts loom over the currency markets. At the end of the Thursday's trading, the EUR/USD was little changed, despite high volatility most of the day. The USD/JPY closed higher at 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the Dollar also finished higher at 1.4481 from 1.4585.
The dramatic sell off of the Dollar appears to have ceased as yesterday's trading was characterized by reduced market risk and future Interest Rate levels. The Dollar was sold heavily last week, sparked by the announcement that the Federal Reserve will begin a quantitative easing program. Slowly the currency markets are returning to relatively normal trading patterns as traders see little reason to take risks on higher yielding currencies in the face of the economic downturn.
Today's trading may be characterized by a glut of economic indicators surrounding consumer spending and attitudes. Due today are personal spending numbers and a revised consumer sentiment report. A better than expected result in the data releases could provide another boost to the Dollar as the currency continues to recoup its losses from last week. Look for the EUR/USD to drop below the 1.3500 level today.


EUR

EUR Set for Further Rate Cuts

The EUR experienced mixed results yesterday as the market begins to price in potential Interest Rate cuts to the European currency. Minor declines were seen against the Dollar, but the EUR climbed consistently against its other currency crosses. The EUR/JPY finished the day higher at 133.41 from 1.3267, and the EUR/GBP ended up at 0.9368 from 0.9301.
Market participants are set to start pricing in the potential for another Interest Rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is scheduled to meet next week to decide if European Interest Rates will need to be trimmed from their current rate of 1.5%. One politician weighing in on the matter was British Prime Minister Gordon Brow. In a press conference; Brown said he expects that the European benchmark rate would fall below its current level. Perhaps Prime Minister Brown is short on the EUR for obvious reasons.
Traders today will want to pay attention to a few important releases from the Euro-Zone economy and Britain. From Europe we will see new industrial order numbers. This indicator is forecasted to show worsening numbers that highlight the deep recession that plagues Europe. Also we will have Britain's current account figures released. This number may have the potential to surprise the market. Better than expected results could add some buoyancy to the GBP against the EUR in today's European trading session.


JPY

Yen Foresees New Resistance Level

The Yen suffered during yesterday's trading; sliding against the Dollar, but in early morning hours of the Japanese trading session the trend began to reverse. Recent gains in equity markets have proven to be troublesome for the Yen. The Japanese currency has traditionally been used as a safe haven asset, but recent safe haven currency movements have not been kind to the Yen. Perhaps this is due to the underlying weakness in the Japanese economy and the rapid decline of the country's export sector.
The Yen slid against the Dollar to 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the JPY finished down slightly at 142.40 from 142.63. The JPY's most notable loss was against the EUR, as the EUR/JPY level finished up 74 pips at 133.41. The financial year in Japan wraps up at the end of March. With the New Year coming, so may be the 100.00 Yen mark against the Dollar. The resistance level is significant as the USD/JPY has not touched on this valuation since the beginning of November.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil Prices Soar

The price of Crude Oil soared in Thursday's trading session, adding to big gains in the past several weeks. Crude prices finished up slightly over $1.50 or 3% at $53.81. Helping the commodity continue its price appreciation has been the recovery of U.S. equity markets from their New Year lows. What has also helped Crude prices as of late is the increased optimism by from investors, which was initiated last week by a string of positive economic data releases from the U.S.
An uptrend is showing in the last two weeks of trading with a host of a number of factors working in favor of rising Crude Oil prices. The rally in stocks has correlated with the rise in price of Crude Oil. It has also raised hopes that a spike in demand may be coming along with it. Adding support to the price appreciation has been the steadfast commitment by OPEC to continually reduce the supply of Crude Oil. Combine this with a weak U.S. Dollar and it makes for a rally in the price of Oil. Traders may look for a short term price cap of $55 to take profits.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The typical range trading on the 4 hour chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the daily Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.4480 level. The 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the breach takes place.


USD/CHF
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

Labels: , , , , ,

Thursday, March 26, 2009
Mar-26 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Thu, 26th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Patience. That is all we need right now. The EURUSD still trapped between 1.3735 – 1.3435 area in the last 5 days and we need a valid breakout on either side. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and bullish in medium term. I think it’s better to stay away right now and wait for further development. Remember, doing nothing (no trade) when the market is trendless (unless you are a scalper) is one of the most important skills a trader must have. CCI just cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressure, but in neutral area on 4h chart.

eurusd4hchart7

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3447
  • S2= 1.3317
  • S3= 1.3217
  • R1= 1.3677
  • R2= 1.3777
  • R3= 1.3907

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD was corrected lower yesterday. On 4h chart we can see that the former trendline resistance has a new task as support. A violation to the downside could trigger further bearish correction back towards 1.4350 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish medium outlook remains intact. Immediate support is seen at 1.4450. Initial resistance at 1.4700. CCI in overbought area and heading down towards 100 line on daily chart suggesting a potential bearish pressure.

gbpusd4hchart14

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4466
  • S2= 1.4387
  • S3= 1.4262
  • R1= 1.4670
  • R2= 1.4795
  • R3= 1.4874

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday. The bullish power unable to break the trendline resistance so far and the upside scenario remains paused. The bias is neutral in nearest and medium term. It’s better to stay away from the market at this phase. Immediate support is seen at 96.50. Initial resistance at 98.50. CCI in neutral area in all three time frames (hourly, 4h, daily).

usdjpy4hchart5

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.93
  • S2= 96.20
  • S3= 95.51
  • R1= 98.35
  • R2= 99.04
  • R3= 99.77

USDCHF Outlook
Similar to EURUSD, we have a boring market on USDCHF as the price still trapped in rectangle area between 1.1360 – 1.1170 in the last 4 days. Be patient and do nothing until we have a breakout on either side. A breakout to the upside would lead to further bullish momentum towards 1.1470 while a breakdown to the downside would trigger further bearish outlook targeting 1.0980 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart8

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1145
  • S2= 1.1077
  • S3= 1.0986
  • R1= 1.1304
  • R2= 1.1395
  • R3= 1.1463

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-26 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard

Economic News

USD

Dollar Falls on Increased Risk Appetite

The Dollar finished Thursday's trading session lower against a number of its currency pairs after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he was open to expanding the use of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) special drawing rights. As of yesterday's close, the USD fell against the EUR, pushing the currency pair to 135.69. The greenback experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair fell from 1.1299 to 1.1227 by day's end.
A disappointing Treasury note auction reversed an early rally in U.S. stocks, but investors ultimately shrugged off that disappointment and focused on the strong economic data. The government reported that New Home Sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February from a record low, as plummeting prices and cheaper mortgage rates lured some buyers, while U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods also unexpectedly rebounded in the same month.
However, demand for New Homes has been limited by the highest jobless rate in a quarter-century and shrinking household wealth, indicating housing may not rebound quickly even as steps to cut borrowing costs and reduce mortgage defaults take hold. Therefore, investors in the coming weeks may unwind their Dollar positions, as they realize that the U.S. economy has a long road ahead for economic recovery.
Investors may look for the unusual price volatility to continue in the EUR/USD as the pair attempts to stabilize and find new support and resistance lines. Large price jumps such as these are not common place and present terrific opportunities to take advantage of the price swings for large profitable gains. In the short-term, the Dollar may continue to fall against the EUR, as traders look to take-up riskier assets.


EUR

EUR Appreciates Despite Negative Figures

After a relatively negative news day in the Euro-Zone, the EUR still managed to appreciate against most of its currency counterparts. The EUR gained nearly 100 points versus the Dollar, and closed at 1.3569. Against the CHF it mainly fluctuated within a small range, as the pair closed at 1.5231. The EUR climbed against the Pound by an impressive 120 points to close at 0.9301. The European currency also made some impressive gains against the Yen, to close Wednesday's session 85 points higher at 132.67.
The major economic event that came out of the Euro-Zone yesterday was the German Ifo Business Climate data release. German business confidence fell to the lowest level in more than 26 years in March, adding to signs that the recession is deepening in the Euro-Zone's biggest economy. Analysts expect the negative data release to add additional pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to make another interest rate cut in the near future. This may affect the EUR in the long-term, but in the short-term forex traders are taking advantage of the EUR to make gains on the high yield of the currency.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the GfK German Consumer Climate at 7:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow the Retail Sales figures coming out of Britain at 9:30 GMT, and the Unemployment Claims figures coming out of the U.S. at 12:30 GMT as these results may set the EUR's main currency crosses going into next week.


JPY

Yen Continues its Slide against the EUR

The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus its major currency pairs. The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the USD on Wednesday and finished the trading session at the 97.77 level. The JPY also saw bearishness against the EUR as the pair jumped by a notable 85 points to close at 132.67. Over the past month the pair has risen over 2,200 points as investors lost confidence in the Japanese currency. The JPY did make some impressive gains yesterday, however, against the GBP to close up nearly 90 points at 142.63. On a larger note, this only marks a slight reversal in the 2 currencies, as the JPY fell dramatically against the GBP in this week's trading.
Japan's export collapse may push sentiment among the nation's largest manufacturers to the lowest level in more than 30 years in March, triggering more investment cuts and job losses. Export declines have set new records each month since November, as U.S. and European consumers have retrenched. The collapse in U.S. sales forced Toyota to cut thousands of jobs and slash domestic production by half this quarter. The automaker may not raise output until after the 3rd quarter of this year. Today, forex traders are advised to follow data releases coming out of Japan, the U.S., the Euro-Zone and Britain as these results are likely to set the short-term strength of the JPY.


Crude Oil

Oil Prices Strong Despite U.S Crude Oil Inventory Rises

Oil prices remained strong yesterday, as they only slid 12 cents, even though U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose by a higher-than-forecasted 3.3 million barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the inventories rose to 356.6 million barrels, which is 15.6% above price levels from one year ago, the highest level since 1993. If it wasn't for the inventories data, Crude prices may have risen by several percent, as the U.S. released some impressive economic data. However, the New Home Sales and Core Durable Goods data helped prevent Crude prices from slipping on Wednesday.
It is important to take into account that Crude Oil prices have risen through the past 2 weeks, as the U.S. government plans to buy up toxic assets from banks. Additionally, the U.S. has continued to release a string of positive economic data. This has been compounded by a weaker Dollar that has also caused investors to flee to commodities such as Crude Oil. Furthermore, if the U.S. continues to publish more positive economic news, and if the American government continues to be aggressive in tackling the current financial crisis, then Crude prices may hit $60 Dollar by the middle of April.


Technical News

EUR/USD
This pair has been range trading for the past several days with a build-up towards what appears to be an intense volatile movement. After the sharp rise in price last week, the pair has been down-correcting to find its true value. With most oscillators beginning to go neutral, the daily chart's RSI still shows this pair in the over-bought territory, meaning there is still room for a downward correction. The Bollinger Bands are tightening on the hourly chart. As such, we might be seeing some downward movement today. Going short might be a wise choice.


GBP/USD
This pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the hourly and daily charts' RSI, indicating a downward correction may be impending. The bearish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. However, there does appear to be a bullish cross on the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic, which demonstrates that this pair may actually be range trading with clear ups and downs. Buying on lows and selling on highs could be a good move throughout the day.


USD/JPY
The recent uptrend has pushed the price of this pair into the over-bought territory on the RSI of the hourly chart, signaling an imminent downward correction. A bearish cross may also be forming on the hourly and daily charts' Slow Stochastic, which would support the notion of a downward move. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice today.


USD/CHF
With relatively flat movement over the past several days, this pair has remained in a range-trading pattern for some time. Most oscillators are giving off neutral indicators, but there was a recent bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, signaling a correction to the sharp downward movement from last week. With the weekly Momentum oscillator still showing an upward direction, going long with tight stops may be a wise choice today.


NZD/USD
This pair's sustained upward movement has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the hourly and daily chart's RSI. Not only that, but there actually appears to be a bearish cross either formed or forming on the hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts' Slow Stochastic oscillators; all this information points to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach and go short in order to ride out the impending wave.

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Mar-25 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Wed, 25th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was traded lower yesterday. On 4h chart we can see that after hit 1.3735 key resistance level, the pair made a significant downside correction testing 23.6% Fibo retracement support level around 1.3435 area. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish correction towards 1.3250. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. We have conflicting daily and hourly CCI. Hourly CCI just cross -100 line up suggesting a potential upside pressure while daily CCI about to cross 100 line down suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart6

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3374
  • S2= 1.3280
  • S3= 1.3129
  • R1= 1.3619
  • R2= 1.3770
  • R3= 1.3864

GBPUSD Outlook
As I had expected, GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 1.4700, even higher, topped at 1.4774 and closed at 1.4692. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing important resistance at 1.4990 area. However CCI about to cross the 100 line down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 1.4650. Break below that support level could lead us into no trading zone.

gbpusd4hchart12

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4569
  • S2= 1.4446
  • S3= 1.4344
  • R1= 1.4794
  • R2= 1.4896
  • R3= 1.5019

USDJPY Outlook
As I had expected, the USDJPY had another bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 98.30, even further, topped at 98.53 but closed lower at 97.83. On 4h chart we can see that after traded around bearish trendline the bullish power was paused and the pair made some moderate downside rebound. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but it’s better to wait until the trendline is violated to the upside to confirm the bullish view targeting 99.50 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 97.50 support area.

usdjpy4hchart4

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.97
  • S2= 96.12
  • S3= 95.34
  • R1= 98.60
  • R2= 99.38
  • R3= 100.20

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. On 4h chart we can see that the pair still trapped between 38.2% (1.1360) and 50% (1.1170) Fibo retracement (of 1.0370 – 1.1965). We need a break on either side to find clearer direction. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. I think it’s better to stay away right now and wait for further development. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart7

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1237
  • S2= 1.1165
  • S3= 1.1122
  • R1= 1.1352
  • R2= 1.1395
  • R3= 1.1506

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-25 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Rises as Investors See U.S Recovery

The U.S currency extended gains on its Japanese and European counterparts Tuesday as optimism about a U.S. government plan to remove bad assets from banks' balance sheets prompted investors to resume safe haven bets on the Dollar. The USD rose versus the Japanese Yen to 97.87 from 96.94 Yen and against the EUR to $1.3464, up from $1.3633 late Monday. The Dollar also gained support from a growing view among market players that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (buying U.S. Treasury debt that would massively expand the Fed's balance sheet) would not undermine the valuation of the Dollar as many initially thought. The greenback however, slipped against the Pound, down to $1.4778, the lowest since Feb. 10th which was pushed up by an unexpected rise in U.K inflation.

The Fed's plan that was announced on Monday by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner has caused the Dollar to halt last week's slide, prompted as the Federal Reserve said its massive balance sheet expansion would include buying government debt. But despite the fact that the initial reaction to Fed quantitative easing was to sell the Dollar, some market participants reversed their views. Perhaps the U.S. will lead the global economy out of an economic recession. Although quantitative easing could lead to inflation as the money supply expands, economists said the other option is not to do anything, which could have more dire consequences for the dollar due to deflation and economic stagnation. It appears that in the long run the U.S. recovery plan has been benefiting the Dollar against both the Yen and the EUR.


EUR

EUR Slips vs. Dollar but Firm vs. Yen

The EUR came under pressure as Euro-Zone policy makers suggested Interest Rates in the region could fall further, just as data showed manufacturing and services sector activity continued to contract significantly. The currency fell 0.9% against the Dollar to $1.3508, down from the two month peak of $1.3739 touched last week. Against the Japanese yen the EUR rose 0.1% to 132.40 Yen having earlier struck 134.50 Yen. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced that it has not used up all its room to maneuver Interest Rates. The news followed comments overnight from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, who again said the benchmark Rate could be cut to help kick-start the Euro-Zone economy.

On top of that, there was more negative news on the Euro-Zone economy, with key gauges of Euro-Zone services and manufacturing showing weal economic activity as firms slashed jobs and prices. The British Pound however, surprised with a rise of 0.7% against the USD at $1.4672 after data showed British annual CPI inflation rose to 3.2% in February from 3.0% in January. The Pound slumped 23% versus the EUR and 26% against the dollar last year as the U.K. economy slipped into its first recession since 1991 amid record losses at the nation's banks, prompting the Bank of England to cut the main Interest Rates to a record low of 0.5% in 2009. In yesterday's trading the GBP strengthened to 91.73 per EUR, the highest level since March 16, from 93.56 pence. Against the Yen, the currency jumped as much as 2.7% to 145.09, the strongest level since Dec. 1st. The U.K. currency may further advance against the USD toward $1.50 by May, if the GBP breaks through the key level of $1.4650.


JPY

Yen Declines as the Demand For Save Heaven Currency Diminishes

The Japanese currency inched up against the EUR and the AUD on Wednesday, pulling away from this week's five-month low as a drop in Japanese equities tempered buying of higher-yielding currencies. The yen climbed to 131.39 per EUR from 131.81 late in New York yesterday, when it touched 134.51, the weakest level since Oct 21st. Although the Yen has regained some ground after dropping on Tuesday to a 5-month low against the EUR and a 4-month trough versus the Australian dollar, it is likely to stay on the back foot, analysts have said. The JPY reaction was subdued to data showing Japan's trade balance returned to a surplus in February. The 82.4 billion Yen ($841.6 million) surplus contrasted with economists' forecasts for a deficit of 10.9 billion Yen. The surplus comes after Japan posted its largest deficit ever in January, when exports fell sharply due to a slowdown in the global economy.

The Yen role as a safe haven currency has apparently diminished, and there has been little reason for traders to buy the yen actively. Investors were also reluctant to buy the Yen with the Bank of Japan having raised the amount of government debt it buys outright to thaw credit markets. Instead, investors continue to favor currencies whose central banks have Interest Rates above zero and look unlikely to use quantitative easing to get their economies moving, such as the Australian dollar.


OIL

Oil Remains Steady Ahead of U.S. Supplies Data

Crude Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday after U.S. stock markets bounced off their lows amid optimism that the government's plan to unburden banks of soured assets could help shore up the U.S economy. The gains were limited however, as dealers awaiting a round of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data that analysts expected would show an increase in Crude stockpiles. Crude Oil rose to settle at $53.98 a barrel after hitting a 3 month high of $54.20 earlier in the day. Analysts said they expected Oil inventory data to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday to show a 1.2 million barrel build in crude stockpiles.

Energy demand in the world's biggest consumer economy has been hard-hit by the economic meltdown, buffering inventory levels as global consumption has been shrinking for the first time in a quarter century. Oil prices have climbed from under $33 last December, partly due to aggressive supply cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), but remain almost $100 below last summer's peak. OPEC agreed to hold output targets steady at its meeting in Vienna on March 15th due to concerns that higher prices may harm an ailing global economy. Ministers pledged to tighten compliance with record cutbacks agreed on last year to bolster Crude Oil prices.


Technical News

EUR/USD
After dropping close to 300 pips since the beginning of the trading week, the pair seems to be consolidating around the 1.3470 level. However, the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart signals that the bearish momentum is still has potential. Going short appears to be the preferable choice today.


GBP/USD
The cable has been trading quite peacefully lately without making any sharp movements. And now, a bearish cross on the daily chart was formed, suggesting that the pair is on the verge of a downtrend. Going short with tight stops might be a good strategy today.


USD/JPY
After two failed attempts to breach the 98.50 level, it appears that the USD/JPY might have reached its weekly peak. Currently all oscillators on the 4-hour chart are giving bearish indications, and as the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart are tightening, it seems that a downtrend could be initiated today.


USD/CHF
The pair's 4-hour chart is showing bearish signals as a fresh bearish cross has formed on the Slow Stochastic Oscillator. The Bollinger Bands also appear to be tightening, indicating the potential for a violent breach. Going short with tight stops appears to be the preferable strategy for today.

Labels: , , , , ,

Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Mar-24 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Tue, 24th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On 4 h chart we can see that the pair still trapped in rectangle area (of 1.3735 – 1.3485) after significant bullish momentum. A break from the rectangle area would give us a clearer direction. Breakout to the upside could lead to further bullish momentum targeting 1.3850 while a breakdown to the downside could bring the pair back towards 1.3300 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bullish in medium term. CCI in neutral area both on hourly and 4h chart.

eurusd4hchart5

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3491
  • S2= 1.3363
  • S3= 1.3242
  • R1= 1.3740
  • R2= 1.3861
  • R3= 1.3989

GBPUSD Outlook
The struggle on the bearish trendline between buyers and sellers on 4h chart seem to be won by the buyers. The bearish trendline has been violated to the upside suggesting a potential bullish outlook. We also still have a valid bullish channel on 4h chart. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4700 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500 area. CCI heading up and about to cross the 100 line on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart11

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4452
  • S2= 1.4355
  • S3= 1.4259
  • R1= 1.4645
  • R2= 1.4741
  • R3= 1.4838

USDJPY Outlook
As I had expected, the USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 97.32 and closed at 97.15. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 98.30 area. Immediate support is seen at 96.50. CCI just cross the 100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart3

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 96.09
  • S2= 95.03
  • S3= 94.42
  • R1= 97.76
  • R2= 98.37
  • R3= 99.43

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday formed a Doji formation on daily chart. On 4h chart we can see that the pair is trapped between 38.2% and 50% Fibo retracement (of 1.0370 – 1.1965). The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bearish in medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1360. Initial support at 1.1170. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0980 area. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

usdchf4hchart6

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1168
  • S2= 1.1084
  • S3= 1.0999
  • R1= 1.1337
  • R2= 1.1422
  • R3= 1.1506

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-24 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollar Moves on U.S. Banking Plan

The Dollar recorded a volatile trading session as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveiled plans for a public-private partnership to buy the toxic debts of U.S. banks. In effect, Geithner's speech led to a rally on Wall Street that resulted in a 7% rise in the Dow Jones and other indices. The other big factor that helped spur a rally on Wall Street was better-than-expected U.S. housing data. This showed a 5.1% increase in Existing Home Sales from January to February. As a result, the Dollar cut its losses that it made earlier on in the trading session against currencies such as the EUR.

The Dollar ended yesterday's trading session with some mixed results against its major currency crosses. The Dollar closed down 9 points against the EUR to 1.3654. The Dollar gained 139 points against the Japanese Yen, as the USD/JPY rate approaches the 100.00 mark again. However, against the British Pound, the Dollar made some big losses. The USD dropped about 170 points to close at 1.4683 against the GBP. This comes about as Britain's stock market and currency reacted very positively to the banking plan from the U.S.

Looking ahead to today, there are a number of economic news events and data releases coming out of the U.S. The House Price Index (HPI) and Richmond Manufacturing Index are set to be released at 14:00 GMT, and will be the two of the biggest indicators from the States. However, the news event that may have a very large impact on the Dollar and its main currency pairs in today's trading is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech around the same time. This speech is very important as he well be testifying with Timothy Geithner about the controversial American International Group (AIG) bailout. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this may lead to great volatility in Dollar trading.


EUR

Pound Jumps on U.S. Bank Rescue Plan

The Pound made very impressive gains in yesterday's trading, as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveiled an impressive and detailed banking plan to rescue U.S. banks, and uplift the U.S. housing sector. This led to the biggest rally on Wall Street since October. As a result, Britain and Euro-Zone stock markets made big gains as well.

The Pound rose by 170 points in Monday's trading to close at 1.4683 against the USD. This was mainly owed to the fact that investor confidence poured back into the Pound as British banking shares soared in yesterday's trading. Also, the Pound has been undervalued against the Dollar as of late. Against the EUR, the GBP gained an impressive 103 points to close at 0.9310, as the EUR/GBP has moved away from parity yet again. Also, news that Germany's economy will decline by the most in the Western world this year, and unemployment in the Euro-Zone's largest economy will reach 5 million by the end of 2010, helped push down the EUR/GBP. The GBP also rose by about 350 points against the JPY to close at 143.35, as traders dropped safe-haven assets in Monday's trading.

Today, there is plenty of economic news coming out of both Britain and the Euro-Zone that will determine the GBP and EUR levels by the end of today's trading. From the Euro-Zone, there are the Euro-Zone Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Current Account figures that are expected to be published simultaneously at 9:00 GMT. From Britain, the most important news will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and Inflation Report Hearings at 9:30 GMT, and the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mervyn King's speech at 15:30 GMT. All these news events will be important in helping set the strength of the GBP and EUR in this week's trading.


JPY

Yen Plummets against Dollar and EUR

The Yen plummeted against its major currency pairs in yesterday's trading as investors ditched safe-haven assets for riskier ones. The Japanese stock market made notable gains too as the U.S. Treasury Secretary unveiled plans for a public-private partnership of investors buying out toxic banking and housing debt. This was the dominant factor leading to U.S. and global stock market rallies, and the ditching of safe-haven assets in yesterday's trading. The Yen was also hit hard yesterday; as the government seeks everything in its power to reduce the value of the JPY in order to spur Japanese exports.

The Yen closed down by 139 points against the Dollar in Monday's trading at the 97.74 level; the USD/JPY could be reaching the 100.00 mark in the near future. The EUR rose by 180 points against the Japanese currency to close at 133.47, as the safe-haven currency was dropped yesterday. Against the Pound, the Yen dropped a massive 350 points on Monday to close at 143.35. This comes about as the British currency reacted extremely positively to the banking news coming out of the U.S. As the Japanese economy continues to deteriorate, despite improvements from the U.S., expect the JPY to lose more ground against the major currencies in the coming days.


Crude Oil

Protests in Brazil and Increased Demand Help Raise Oil Prices

Crude Oil prices hit $54 yesterday, before settling at $53.62. This price is the highest Oil has been since December 2008, but still significantly lower than last July's high of $147 a barrel. Crude prices increased yesterday for a number of reasons. However, the 2 main factors were the U.S. banking plan unveiled by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner to buy toxic banking assets, and the better-than expected housing data. Also, there were protests in Brazil, which have been going on for 5 days, which have helped put upward pressure on Crude prices.

China announced yesterday that demand for Oil increased by 0.5%, marking a recent reversal. The underlying reason that has led to stability in the Crude Oil market is the supply cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It seems their strategy has worked, and if they continue to cut the supply, Crude prices are likely to rise further. Additionally, if the U.S. continues to publish good data, and Obama shows that he is able to lead the world out of recession, then Crude prices may hit the $58-$60 price level by week's end.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The 4-hour chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating in neutral territory. However, the daily chart's RSI is already floating in the over-bought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be the preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
The bullish trend is losing steam and the pair seems to be consolidating around the 1.4690 level. The daily chart's RSI is already floating in the over-bought territory suggesting that the recent upwards trend is losing steam and a bearish correction is impending. Going short with tight stops appears to be a preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The daily chart is showing that the pair is still in the bullish configuration. However, the 4-hour chart's RSI is already floating in the over-bought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops may be a wise tactic.


USD/CHF
There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the daily chart as the pair is now floating in the middle. However, the pair currently sits near the bottom border of the hourly chart's RSI, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. If an upwards breach occurs, going long might be a good choice.

Labels: , , , , ,

Monday, March 23, 2009
Mar-23 Market Commentary and Technical Levels

Mon, 23th of March, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
For the first time since March 10, the bullish momentum of the EURUSD was paused on Friday, hold by strong resistance around 1.3725 area (38.2 %Fibo retracement of 1.6037 – 1.2327). On hourly chart we can see that the pair is consolidating in rectangle area. Break from the rectangle would give us a clearer direction. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bullish in medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3725/30 area. Break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.3850 area. Initial support at 1.3515. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

eurusdhourly6

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.3488
  • S2= 1.3398
  • S3= 1.3281
  • R1= 1.3695
  • R2= 1.3812
  • R3= 1.3902

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also corrected lower on Friday. On 4h chart we can see that after had significant bullish momentum, the pair is now struggling with bearish trendline resistance area. Be patient at this phase. Consistent move above the bearish trendline should trigger further bullish momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bullish in medium term. Immediate support is seen at 1.4390. Initial resistance at 1.4590. Break above that level could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.4700 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart10

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.4373
  • S2= 1.4286
  • S3= 1.4179
  • R1= 1.4567
  • R2= 1.4674
  • R3= 1.4761

USDJPY Outlook
After two days of significant bearish movement, the USDJPY had a bullish momentum on Friday. On 4h chart we can see that the bearish momentum was rejected by 61.8% Fibo retracement support area. At the same time, we have a Hammer candle stick formation which gave us a valid warning about exhausting bearish power and a potential bullish correction. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 97.50 area. Immediate support is seen at 95.50. CCI in oversold area and heading up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart2

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 94.63
  • S2= 93.33
  • S3= 92.52
  • R1= 96.74
  • R2= 97.55
  • R3= 98.85

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback made a minor recovery against Swiss Franc on Friday. On 4h chart we can see that further bearish momentum was rejected by 50% Fibo retracement support area around 1.1170. Break below that support level could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0980 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but remains bearish in medium term. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

usdchf4hchart5

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.1203
  • S2= 1.1137
  • S3= 1.1090
  • R1= 1.1316
  • R2= 1.1363
  • R3= 1.1429

Labels: , , , , ,

Mar-23 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

USD Strength Not Likely to Return this Week

Last week's decision by the Federal Reserve to buy up U.S. Treasury securities has generated one significant result: an across-the-board sell-off of the USD. Jumping an unprecedented 334 points against the EUR directly following the announcement last Wednesday, the Dollar has continued to take hits through the end of last week and today. Two primary results occurred as a result of this sell-off. The first, as was just mentioned, was a volatile decreasing movement in the Dollar's pairs and crosses. The second was a subsequent rise in the value of commodities like Crude Oil, which hasn't seen such an upward movement since September.

With the global economy worsening consistently over the previous few months, major economies, such as the United States, are taking whatever measures they can to salvage their economic systems before a collapse takes place. One investment maneuver undertaken by many traders during economic hard times is to invest in a safe-haven currency, like the USD. This explains the influx of Dollars being purchased over the preceding months, which likewise drove the value of the USD to an inflated high. One perception of the recent turn of events might state that the USD is not crashing down or weakening, but rather, returning to its more realistic value.

One thing many forex traders can be sure of is that the downward movement of the USD is not likely to cease in the short-term. At the moment, the U.S. Federal Reserve is basically printing almost $1 trillion worth of new currency. Regardless of any speculation about future price levels, the present moment dictates that the greenback must come down, at least for now. The economic calendar might lend some strength to the USD in the form of potentially positive housing data, however. Could this information be enough to prevent the continued fall of the Dollar?


EUR

Will the EUR Hold its Recent Gains?

A bullish EUR appears to be the order of the day lately. After the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its quantitative easing program, the EUR climbed to a high not seen in months against its primary currency rival, the USD. Shooting above the 1.3700 mark last Thursday and Friday, the pair appears to have settled down slightly at the beginning of this week starting with a small increase in value from 1.3582 to 1.3656 so far. Against the Pound, the EUR has also seen some small gains in today's early trading hours; currently trading at 0.9416.

While many analysts anticipate the USD to grow significantly weaker in the coming days, there is also talk of similar quantitative easing strategies being implemented in the Euro-Zone by the European Central Bank (ECB). If such a move were to be taken by the ECB there is a possibility of a mad dash to sell-off the EUR similar to what occurred to the USD last Wednesday. Could there be a race to the bottom between these 2 currencies?

Most importantly this week, traders are going to see a sizeable amount of economic data from the Euro-Zone, primarily on Tuesday with the announcement of multiple French and German manufacturing and production figures. If we see a continuation of negative data from this region, there is a high possibility of the Euro-Zone implementing measures similar to what the Fed did for the U.S. economy. If this happens, expect the EUR to put a halt to its recent gains, and most likely reverse against most of its pairs and crosses by sometime this week or next.


JPY

Yen Weakness Prevalent at the Start of this Week

The JPY has seen some odd behavior this past week. Appreciating against the USD directly after the announcement of the Fed's new quantitative easing program, the JPY actually lost value against most other currencies. This highlights two important analytical points. First, the USD's recent weakness is due to the Fed's program and not a coincidental strengthening of other currencies. Second, the JPY is in fact weakening as a result of monetary policies undertaken by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently.

Trading up at 96.38 against the USD, and down at 131.82 against the EUR, the JPY may actually begin to post steady losses throughout this week due to recent actions by the BoJ to lower the value of the Japanese currency in an effort to boost exports. A steady release of economic figures this week may demonstrate the inherent weakness of the JPY and thus push its value lower against all currency pairs, or it could show that the Japanese economy is beginning to rebound and thus spark a trend reversal for the Yen. Only time will tell.


OIL

Oil Rises beyond $50 a Barrel; Upward Movement to Continue?

As part of the weakening USD seen last week, the price of Crude Oil has seen a corresponding increase in value. The price for a barrel of Crude Oil climbed above the $50 mark last Friday and appears to be continuing in an upward direction. No doubt the quantitative easing taking place in the U.S., thereby weakening the Dollar, has carried an impact on the price of this commodity since it is traded in Dollars.

Secondly, the price for a barrel of Crude Oil is affected by supply as much as it is affected by the strength of the USD. With production cuts beginning to take effect, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has declared that Crude Oil prices appear to be stabilizing and may return to a more suitable price level in the nearest future. As long as the USD continues to weaken and equity markets remain in a somewhat bullish posture, the price for a barrel of Crude is not likely to go south anytime soon.


Technical News

EUR/USD
After touching a base at 1.3724, the pair now is consolidating a bit higher near the 1.3680 level. All oscillators show that the bullish momentum will probably continue. The Slow Stochastic of the 4-hour chart is showing no crosses in the horizon, and the bullish momentum there appears to be intact as well. On the daily chart, this pair is still trending upwards and there are no imminent indications of a reversal. Therefore traders can maximize profits by entering steady long positions.


GBP/USD
The Cable has resumed its bullish trend and is attempting to breach the 1.4585 level. Should the breach take place, the pair might further extend its bullish run, with a potential price target of 1.4620.


USD/JPY
It seems that the pair has limited its bullish correction after testing the 98.94 level. Currently a bearish cross took place on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic. The resumption of the bearish trend looks possible. Going short with tight stops might be the right strategy today.


USD/CHF
The pair's movement is quite moderate and characterized a slight bearish move. Indicators on the 4 hour level shows mixed signals, as the daily studies are still a bit bearish. Waiting for a clear signal on the hourly level before entering the market might be wise.


NZD/USD
The pair is in the middle of a strong bullish move ever since it peaked at 0.5283, and is now traded at 0.5663. The pair continues its nonstop upward journey overlooking every possible support level and shows no sign of a stop. All oscillators on the daily chart are still bullish and the trend appears to have more room to run. Forex traders should note that being long on the pair appears to be a wise move for the day.

Labels: , , , , ,

Friday, March 20, 2009
Mar-20 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

Dollars Tumbles on Increasing Money Supply

The has continued its weekly demise this week , as it reached close to a two month low against the EUR on Thursday. The greenback also saw significant downtrends against the GBP and the JPY as well. The Federal Reserve's decision to expand the supply of Dollars by buying government debt, which was announced 2 days ago, is continuing to severely damage the U.S currency. Yesterday the USD lost a staggering 200 pips against the EUR to close at 1.3659. Against the JPY, the Dollar dropped a staggering 150 pips or 1.5% to close at 94.55. The Dollar's losses against the Pound were notable, as the greenback lost nearly 300 pips on Thursday to close at the 1.4489 level.

In general it can be said that the Federal Reserve's decision has had two different effects, both weakening the Dollar. Firstly, the Fed's actions were received quite enthusiastically among analysts across the world, which had an instant reaction among investors that now have more confidence that the U.S will manage to pull out of the current recession. Thus, as was proven recently, good news for the U.S economy signifies even better news for the rest of the western world, as these countries rely greatly on U.S consumption. The second effect is, as was described above, is a process in which the supply of Dollars increases, and thus makes the USD more available and cheaper in the long-term.

The other important factor that added to the Dollar's misfortune yesterday was the release of U.S Unemployment Claims data. Despite being slightly better-than-expected figures of 646,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance during the past week, as opposed to the expected 652,000 individuals, these figures are still very disappointing. The next publications of this indicator could be the leading measurement of the U.S. economy's condition, and prospects for recovery. Traders are advised to follow it very carefully when it is published at 12:30 GMT next Thursday.

Looking ahead to today, the only significant event on the U.S calendar is the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, which is expected to take place at 16:00 GMT. After the reaction to Bernanke's announcement from 2 days ago, traders cannot afford to overlook his speech today, as it could impact the market dramatically once again. The result of the speech may incite a modest correction to the last days' trends in USD weakness.


EUR

EUR Soars vs. the Dollar

The EUR continued its bullish rally yesterday. The EUR saw its most dominant uptrend against the USD, as the EUR/USD reached over the 1.37 level, to eventually close up 200 pips at the 1.3659 level. Against the JPY, however, it finished yesterday's trading session virtually unchanged at 129.15, as the Yen continues to uphold its value. The EUR did gain over 50 pips vs. the British Pound to close at 0.9423, as the EUR/GBP pair heads for parity yet again.

It appears that the European Central Bank's (ECB) reluctance to match the Federal Reserve plan to rescue the Euro-Zone economy by buying government's debt is one of the main factors that have led to the European currency towards such high ranks against the leading currencies. However, it is widely accepted that the ECB won't be able to sustain the public demand for a rescue plan, and will soon launch a plan of its own. The plan will probably be more modest than the American one, but could have similar effects on the European currency.

A significant economic rescue plan for the Euro-Zone economy may lead to the current bullish trend in the EUR reaching its end much sooner than expected. Traders should stay extremely alert in the coming days and weeks, as an opportunity to profit from a reversal in the EUR's fortunes, spurred by the case that the ECB will indeed announce its desire to implement a rescue plan might be a rare opportunity to catch a trend in its first steps. Therefore, forex traders may be able to make large profits by employing this trading strategy.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the Euro-Zone. The most significant indicators will be the German Producer Price Index at 07:00 GMT, which is expected to drop by 0.2% as opposed to the previous month. The European Industrial Production figures at 10:00 GMT is expected to drop by 3.8% from the last publication. If forecasts will indeed come true, traders might witness a relatively bearish trading day for the EUR. However, it is advised to follow economic news coming from the U.S., as this may change the course of trends today


JPY

Yen Climbs Against the Dollar

The Yen soared against the Dollar yesterday, mainly as a result of the weakening USD, and not as a result of high demand for JPY. The Dollar's weakness was largely owed to the Federal Reserve's decision to keep Interest Rates near 0 at 0.25%, and announcing a mass buying of debt, by dramatically increasing the Dollar supply. The Yen's strength is also owed to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) extremely pessimistic line by stating that Japan's economic conditions have deteriorated significantly, and are likely to keep worsening. In other times, such a saying would have generated a massive bearish trend for the JPY, but as of late, it appears that all the currencies will appreciate against the Dollar without any relevance to their local economic conditions. In the long-term, if the BoJ will continue with its desire to see a weak JPY, the Yen is very likely to depreciate over time, and traders should take this under consideration.

The JPY saw mixed results against the major currencies in yesterdays trading. The JPY rose against the USD by a dramatic 150 pips or 1.5%, as the USD/JPY cross reached as low as the 93.53 level, before finishing at the 94.55. The Yen lost 60 pips against the GBP to close at 137.01, reversing some of the GBP's losses against the Japanese currency. The EUR/JPY currency cross finished Thursday's trading session virtually unchanged to close at 129.15, as both currencies made significant gains against the greenback. As for today, Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Vernal Equinox Day. Traders are advised to follow the economic news coming from the leading regions, such as the U.S., Euro-Zone and Britain.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil Hits the $52 Level

Crude Oil rose to over $52 yesterday, before closing at $51.39, an increase of 150 pips or 3%. This marks a massive weakly gain for Crude Oil of about 13%. This is largely owed to signals of a possible economic recovery from the U.S. It appears that OPEC's unusual high level of discipline, is one of the other reasons for the high value of Crude Oil. OPEC managed to keep up to their estimations of the right amount of barrels produced per day, and as a result managed to halt the ongoing erosion in Oil prices.

High Crude prices are also owed to the significant drop in the Dollar. Thus Crude Oil is valued in Dollars, and as such, any downtrend of the USD is likely to generate a bullish trend for Oil. As for today, traders are advised to follow economic data, especially from the U.S, and even more importantly, follow the USD's movements against the leading currencies, in order to predict Oil's trend for today. If the Dollar will continue to slide, Crude Oil might reach $55 a barrel before the week ends.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the daily chart's RSI, indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


GBP/USD
The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.4460 level. A bearish cross on 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic implies that a downwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/JPY
The 4-hour chart's is showing that the pair is still in the bearish configuration. However, the RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.


USD/CHF
The hourlies chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

Labels: , , , , ,