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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
June-30 Daily Forex Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.3982 but closed higher at 1.4080. On h4 chart below we still have valid trendline support and as long as the trendline support hold, the key resistance level 1.4176 area remains potential upside target. The bias remains neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate support is seen at 1.3982 (yesterday’s low) followed by 1.3850. Break below 1.3850 should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing key support level 1.3750. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on yesterday. On h4 chart below we have minor bullish channel indicating potential further upside pressure re-testing 1.6660 key resistance level. Below that area, the medium term outlook remains neutral and expect trading range between 1.6660 – 1.6188. Immediate support is seen at 1.6505 – 1.6450 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside consolidation.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is now re-testing the trendline resistance. I think this is a normal correction and as long as the pair stay below key resistance 96.70 I still prefer downside scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 96.70 resistance area. Immediate support is seen at 95.00. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. We have bearish channel as shown on h4 chart below as a result of the market’s disagreement with SNB intervention. The bias is neutral in both nearest and medium term but 1.0750 area remains a potential downside target and important support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario re-testing 1.0630. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.


usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
As I had expected, the EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 135.46 and closed at 135.27. Earlier today in Asian session the pair keep moving relatively higher around 135.60 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 136.30. Immediate support is seen at 135.35 – 134.80 area. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure and bring us into no trading zone.

eurjpyhourly


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY finally had a convincing bullish momentum after 4 days of indecisive movement. The pair topped at 159.29 and closed at 159.11. The bias is bullish in nearest term but watch out for potential strong resistance around 159.60 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 161.20. Immediate support is seen at 158.50. Break below that area should take us back into no trading zone.

gbpjpyhourly


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.7982 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair closed higher at 0.8080. I have 2 technical focus on this movement. First, the pair able to stay outside the triangle. Second, the pair stay above 0.8050. Both support the bullish side in nearest term targeting 0.8150 and 0.8260. Immediate support is seen at 0.7982 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should lead us back into no trading zone. CCI about to cross the 100 line up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.

audusdh4

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Monday, June 29, 2009
June-29 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

USD Up despite Recent Downward Pressures from Abroad

The US Dollar, after dropping last week due to renewed calls from China and Russia to switch to an alternate reserve currency, began to steadily strengthen in today's early morning hours. From a peak high above 1.4100 against the EUR, the USD has pared some of these losses and is currently trading just above 1.4000. Versus the British Pound, the greenback has gone from 1.6550 back towards 1.6450, remaining within the range this pair has experienced over the previous 2 weeks.

While China's recent call for a new international reserve currency, and Russia's support of such an action, has put downward pressure on the USD lately; the impact has been somewhat muted. It has been forecast a number of times that the greenback will begin to depreciate against most currency pairs as the global economy recovers. As one of the world's leading safe-haven investments, the Dollar will no doubt take a hit from an increase to risk appetite which naturally stems from economic recovery.

China and Russia added to this weight with a call for portfolio diversification, which in fact carries roughly the same impact as calling for the purchase of riskier assets. For economic giants, such as these two countries, to call for a diversion away from the largest economic rival is a basic economic weapon aimed at gaining a larger market share. The problem is that they lay out a general economic plan which is already understood to be in motion. This is why the impact was muted, and why the USD will still experience multiple up-ticks in the near future.

Looking forward to today's trading, however, will see traders with little economic news to wager on for the US Dollar. Britain and Japan appear to be releasing the bulk of today's news, which means we may see a day of trading with low liquidity and increased volatility. Day-traders can take advantage of these intense trading days by swinging within the larger-than-normal price fluctuations.


EUR

EUR's Mixed Results due to High Optimism, Bleak Data

The EUR has been uncertain in its direction lately, despite clear calls for a buy-up of this higher-yielding currency during times of mild economic optimism. Positive news from the Euro-Zone typically leads to an increase to risk appetite, which is definitely something which traders saw last week. The EUR started Friday just under 1.40 against the USD, but steadily rose above 1.41 before the end of last week's trading. The EUR even peaked around 0.8550 against the Pound, despite the moderate drop towards 0.8520 at the end of Friday's trading session.

Many of the economic indicators being released these past 2 weeks have shown that the Euro-Zone is experiencing a boost in consumer optimism. This has come about despite a growth in budget deficits and continuously shrinking manufacturing output and GDP. The people have started looking forward to better days, but the numbers still tell a bleak story. One of the primary impacts of such data is that the EUR has showed heavy signs of a comeback, but fraught with nasty downturns as its rivals make headway from periods of instability.

As for this week, the 16-nation currency has leveled-off in today's early trading sessions, but it appears to be poised for a rather sharp movement today or tomorrow. The EUR looks to be consolidating towards significant price barriers against most of its currency rivals and will either go through a massive drop or, more likely, strengthen as economic indicators continue to show a growth in optimism, and possibly a chance to poke holes in the USD's most recent gains. Traders should pay attention to the few economic indicators released today as the story is being told solely by Europe and Great Britain. With a silenced US economy, we could see much more predictable price movements from the European currencies.


JPY

Yen Declining as Consumer Spending Expected to Fall

Despite the grueling downward trend the JPY experienced last week against its currency counterparts, the Yen now appears to be flattening out. The only currency which seems to have bested the Yen in today's early morning hours is the USD which has climbed from 95.15 to the 95.50 level, with the possibility of reaching 95.80 in the coming hours. Against the EUR and GBP, the Yen has done very little in terms of price movement, consolidating towards the price of 138.90 and 157.30, respectively.

As industrial production in Japan rises for 3 consecutive months, there are some analysts who forecast a faster-than-anticipated recovery for the island economy. On the other hand, consumer spending in Japan has typically played a large part in economic growth, but these figures are expected to continue plummeting this week. Also putting mild pressure on the JPY is the fact that unemployment in Japan has finally reached over 5% and is still climbing. With such negative economic news it is hard to expect a strong recovery in the Yen anytime soon.



OIL

Oil Prices Still Failing to Stay above $70

No matter how much downward pressure there appears to be on the value of the US Dollar, the price of Crude Oil still seems to have difficulty finding support above $70 a barrel. Dropping from over $71 to as low as $69 last Friday, the price of the black gold has continued its plunge in today's early trading hours and currently sits near $68.50 a barrel.

As expectations for fuel and energy demand have been decreased these past weeks, many speculators are now beginning to price in the reality that oil prices may not find the support necessary to climb successfully above $70 in the nearest future. Without a sudden short-fall in supply, the price will no doubt reflect this reality. Traders may anticipate a series of fluctuations above and below the $70 price range as the market searches for a true range of the value of Crude Oil.


Technical News

EUR/USD
The pair has been range-trading for the past few days, and is now traded around the 1.4030 level. Currently, the Bollinger Bands on the 1 hour chart are tightening, suggesting that a sharp movement is impending, and as all oscillators on the hourly chart are pointing down it appears that the move will be bearish. Traders should wait for the breach and swing.


GBP/USD
The daily chart shows fresh signs of a bearish move, suggesting that the uptrend has vanished. The 4 chart's RSI also supports this notion indicating that the downwards momentum has more steam in it. Going short with tight stops might be the right strategy today.


USD/JPY
On the 4 hour chart the pair is showing consistent bullish momentum for a while now and the RSI is also supported by a bullish trend line. Although the signal is not strong the pair might have a local target at 96.00,.which might make it feasible for forex traders to go long with tight stops.


USD/CHF
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The daily chart's Slow Stochastic is providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4-hour chart do not provide a clear direction either. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

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June-29 Daily Forex Forecast
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price attempted to move back below the trendline but the trendline hold so far. This fact should trigger further upside pressure in nearest term re-testing key resistance level 1.4176. However as long as the pair stay below that area, the medium term remains unclear and for me doing nothing and wait for further development is still the best thing to do. Boring, but market will reward patient traders. Immediate support is seen at 1.4000 followed by 1.3850. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart13



GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 1.6557 and closed at 1.6523. The bias is bullish in nearest term and we might see further upside pressure re-testing 1.6660 area. However, as you can see in h4 chart below, actually the pair still trapped in ranging area without a clear direction in medium term. So I think It’s still not the best time to trade. Immediate support is seen at 1.6430 followed by 1.6350. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

gbpusd4hchart11


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY had a bearish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is now struggling around trendline support area. I prefer a downside scenario since the major long term trend remains bearish. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 94.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.80. break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

usdjpydaily4


USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had another bearish momentum on Friday. It seems like the market doesn’t agree with SNB decision that the Swiss Franc should be weakened. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0750. Immediate resistance at 1.0880. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

usdchfhourly4


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that the trendline support did a great job and we should see further upside pressure testing 135.35 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario re-testing 139.20. Immediate support is seen at 133.20. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure back towards 132.50.

eurjpydaily2


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had another indecisive movement on Friday, formed another Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral and we are still in no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 155.90. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing key support level around 154.75 area. Initial resistance at 158.50. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

gbpjpydaily3


AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. However the bullish momentum seems not very convincing right now as the pair still unable to stay consistently above 0.8050. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakout from the triangle, the price moved back down towards the triangle. Immediate support is seen at 0.8000. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure back towards 0.7900 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

audusdh49


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Friday, June 26, 2009
June-26 Daily Forecast Forex Trend
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support still hold so far, preventing the pair from further bearish attack. However we don’t have significant movement yet so be patient and don’t rush jump into the market. On the upside we have 1.4176 as key resistance level. On the downside we have 1.3750 support level to watch closely. Any movement between that area should keep us stay out from the market. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050. Initial support at 1.3850. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

eurusd4hchart12


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6232 but closed higher at 1.6366. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is trapped in rectangle area indicating consolidation phase. We are still in no trading zone since we have no clear direction yet. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6400/50 area. Initial support at 1.6200. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart. Be patient.


gbpusd4hchart10


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is struggling around the trendline indicating an intense battle between buyers and sellers around that area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 95.00/50 area. Initial resistance at 96.70. Expect ranging movement between that area today. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

usdjpy4hchart12


USDCHF Daily Forecast

After significant bullish momentum moved by SNB intervention, the USDCHF had moderate bearish correction yesterday. On h1 chart below we have rectangle formation indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Break from the rectangle should give us clearer direction. Immediate support is seen at 1.0920. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.0830 area. Initial resistance at 1.1050. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.


usdchfhourly3


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after failed to break below the trendline support, the pair is now making an inverse H&S formation indicating potential bullish scenario especially when the neckline break to the upside targeting 136.50 area. Immediate support is seen at 133.50. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

eurjpyh45

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had another indecisive movement yesterday. It’s been 3 days in a row of indecisive movement since Tuesday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in triangle area. No trading until we have valid triangle breakout/breakdown. Immediate resistance is seen at 158.51 (yesterday’s high). Initial support at 155.80. CCI in neutral area on both h4 and daily chart.

gbpjpyh46

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle has been broken to the upside indicating potential bullish scenario but we need convincing movement above 0.8050 to confirm the bullish scenario testing 0.8261 area. Immediate support at 0.8000. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

audusdh48



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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Huge Descending Triangle on EUR signals significant breakout to the downside

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Hi there fellow traders!

Below follows my latest view on the EUR/USD:

After all the Head and Shoulders, wedges and all sorts of patterns we have been seeing lately, a DESCENDING TRIANGLE might be at hand here. Look at the charts below:

eur4hr1

and..

eur4hr2

Now, if the 1st and 2nd supports are violated and confirmed, the target for this possible downmove would be 1.3260

For more info on Descending Triangles, have a look below:

desc1

desc2

Well, once again, these are patterns and only indicate the direction of highest probability. I would only act when a breakout is truly confirmed but I must say I like what I see here

If you have any questions, pop me an email or come and say hi in the Live Trading Room


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Forex Daily Forecast for June 25
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4136 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3888 and closed at 1.3927. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair now is re-testing the trendline support area. Break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.3750 key support area. However I think the pair is technically a mess so I think it’s not the best time to trade now. Immediate support is seen at 1.3850. Initial resistance at 1.4050 followed by 1.4176. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.
eurusd4hchart11


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 1.6505/59, topped at 1.6600 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit the bottom at 1.6367 and closed at 1.6405. After had a false triangle breakdown, yesterday the pair made a false breakout and now seem to re-testing the trendline support. The pair is technically a mess so I think we are now back in no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 1.6350 followed by 1.6200. Initial resistance at 1.6505/59 area. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

gbpusd4hchart9


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY was corrected higher yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is now moving around the trendline resistance (former broken support). As long as the trendline resistance hold, this upside correction is normal. Immediate support is seen at 95.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 93.80. Initial resistance at 96.70. CCI in neutral area both on h4 and daily chart.

usdjpy4hchart11


USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had significant bullish momentum yesterday after the SNB intervention to weaken the Swiss Franc. The pair topped at 1.1019 and closed at 1.0977. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have strong resistance around 1.1050. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.1150 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.0870. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.
usdchf4hchart15


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 134.96 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 132.97 and closed at 133.21. Earlier today in Asian session the pair was traded higher around 133.90 at the time I wrote this comment. I think we are still in no trading zone now. On h4 chart below we can see that the price might re-testing the trendline support. Immediate support is seen at 132.97 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.40 area. Initial resistance at 135.35. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

eurjpyh44

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had another indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 158.22 but closed lower at 156.90. Earlier today in Asian session the pair traded higher again around 157.80 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is struggling at the triangle’s upper line indicating intense battle between buyers and sellers. Immediate resistance is seen at 158.22 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 159.50. Initial support at 156.90 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

gbpjpyh45

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday. The pair hit my long target at 0.8050, topped at 0.8053 but the bullish momentum was very limited as the pair closed lower at 0.7965. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think we are in no trading zone now. On h4 chart below we can see that actually after hit 0.8261, the pair has been moving lower forming a descending triangle formation which is technically a bearish pattern with 0.7800 as key support level. Break below that area should change the medium term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 0.8053 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 0.8261 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

audusdh47





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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Daily Forecast for Crosses: June 24
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.4106 and closed at 1.4076. On h4 below we can see that the trendline resistance has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4176 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential bearish rebound testing 1.4000 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

eurusd4hchart10


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6208 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.6471 and closed at 1.6450. On h4 chart below we can see that this was the case of a false triangle breakdown. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6505/59 area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside rebound testing 1.6350 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

gbpusd4hchart8


USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the triangle to the downside, the pair had bearish momentum, bottomed at 1.0642 and closed at 1.0665. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.0540. We seem to have good support around 1.0642 area (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. CCI just cross the -100 line down on daily chart suggesting potential bearish pressure.

usdchf4hchart14


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 131.42 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 134.37 and closed at 134.02. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of false breakdown and we have to assume that the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish attack. The bias is neutral in both nearest and medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 135.35. Initial support at 132.50. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

eurjpyh43

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. The pair attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 154.06 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 156.62. I think we are now in no trading zone and it’s better to wait for further development. Immediate resistance is seen at 156.90. Break above that area should trigger further upside pressure. Initial support at 155.80. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

gbpjpydaily2

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD failed to continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the 23.6% Fibo retracement ( of 0.6280 – 0.8261 ) support area around 0.7800 did a good job preventing the pair from further bearish attack. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8050 area. Immediate support is seen at 0.7905. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

audusddaily2



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June-24 Daily forex analysis
by: Forexyard


Economic News

USD

USD Gains on Return to Risk Aversion

The U.S. Dollar gained against its riskier counterparts Monday after the World Bank issued a poor forecast for 2009. Renewed concerns over the state of the global economic recovery combined with unfolding instability in Iran and North Korea brought back an air of pessimism pushing investors to safer currencies. The Dollar was at $1.3856 per EUR following a 0.5% gain since Friday and at 95.99 Yen down from 96.23.

The World Bank predicted Monday that the global economy will shrink 2.9% in 2009, much deeper than the previous estimate of 1.7%. Doubts were also raised that developing countries will be able to spur global economic recovery as their GDP is expected to grow only 1.2% in 2009. The prospect for world economic recovery is expected to be slow and shallow. The report led to a decline in equity markets and commodities which further helped strengthen the Dollar.

The biggest risk to the Dollar this week is the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that is set to begin today and concludes Wednesday with a policy statement. Existing Home Sales are set to be released at 2:00 GMT; however, most of the focus will still be on the outcome of the FOMC meeting as investors await announcements regarding the Fed's Treasury buying program and direction of interest rates.


EUR

EUR Loses against Most Currency Pairs

The EUR lost against its major currency pairs Monday as investors returned to risk aversion after a disappointing report from the World Bank. The EUR traded at $1.3856 Monday down from $1.3948 and at 133.05 Yen down from 134.22 Friday.

Additional pressure to the EUR came after European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet stated that he has no intention of offering stimuli to the Euro-Zone economy. A slightly stronger than expected rise in the German Ifo Business Climate had a very short and mild effect on the EUR considering Germany's budget deficit shortfalls made this boost in optimism appear muted.

Despite some interesting economic data set to be released today, including the German Flash Manufacturing PMI and the German Flash Services PMI, both to be released at 7:30 GMT, the markets are awaiting the FOMC meeting statement and ECB's one-year refinancing operation, both due on Wednesday.


JPY

Political Turmoil Benefits JPY

The Japanese Yen gained against most major currencies Monday as risk aversion returned amid political unrest in Iran and a gloomy report from the World Bank regarding expected global recovery. The report stated that the recession will be deeper than previously forecasted, pushing investors to safer currencies, such as the Dollar and Yen.

The Yen traded at 132.87 per EUR following a 0.9% increase yesterday and was at 95.86 per Dollar, after rising 0.4%. Economic data released earlier showed an improvement in the business sentiment index as well as an improvement in the services sector, providing a brighter outlook for Japan's economic state. As the world turmoil continues, it is likely the Yen will extend its gains during today's session as well.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil Drops below $67 a Barrel

The price of Crude Oil dropped more than $2 a barrel yesterday after the World Bank estimated the world economy will contract 2.9% in 2009. A rebounding Dollar also put pressure on Oil as investors moved away from riskier assets and into safe-haven currencies.

Declining expectations of a recovery in U.S summer gasoline demand along with reports of sharp increases in inventories snapped Crude's recent rally. Gasoline demand usually peaks during the summer in the U.S, but in light of the continuing recession and growing unemployment there are less commuters and fewer vacation plans. Furthermore, since refiners are operating at roughly 86% of capacity, even with a sharp increase in demand, gasoline supplies are unlikely to tighten further. There is expectation that the U.S. gasoline inventories will keep rising.

Although some correction is expected, investors are awaiting the release of the U.S Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT and the FOMC statement to be released 18:15 GMT.


Technical News

EUR/USD
This pair appears to be consolidating towards the price of 1.3875 with what appears to be an impending volatile movement. The MACD on the hourly and 4-hour charts indicate bullish crosses, which support the price moving towards the convergence point and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart appear to be tightening, which indicates imminent volatility. Waiting for the breach and then riding the wave may be a wise choice today.


GBP/USD
This pair may be poised for an upward movement today. The MACD on the hourly chart is showing an imminent bullish cross. The Slow Stochastic on the 4-hour chart also shows a fresh bullish cross that has just formed. These two together support the notion of an impending upward movement. Going long may be a wise choice today.


USD/JPY
This pair's recent downward movement has pushed many of the indicators on all charts into the over-sold territory, as well as generating a number of bullish crosses. The pair is currently testing the solid support level of 95.30. If a breach occurs, the downward movement may continue despite technical indicators. However, if the price fails to breach, there may likely be an upward correction throughout the day.


USD/CHF
This appear has been consolidating over the past few days towards the price level of 1.0850. As the MACD on the hourly chart shows a clear bearish cross, and the Bollinger Bands are tightening on the hourly chart, this pair could experience a sharp volatile movement after the impending downward move. Waiting for the breach and then riding the wave may be a solid strategy.



EUR/NOK
The sustained upward movement for this pair has pushed many indicators into the over-bought territory and created bearish crosses across the board. However, the Parabolic SAR on all charts is still signaling for forex traders to buy. Without a clear downward correction today, this pair will likely continue upwards as the NOK loses value to the EUR. Today will either be the day this pair reverses, or continues to climb to record highs. Choosing the right one will earn big bucks today.

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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
23 June EUR Probability Study - EUR still short

By Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)


Resistance =1.3950 and 1.4000 (intermediate bearish trendline resistance and H & S Neckline resistance as discussed in the video)

Support = 1.3800 and 1.3450 (The latter is the Secondary Trend support)

Head and Shoulders already violated and confirmed:

Please have a look at the charts below:

eurhs1

and…

eurhs2

As you can see on the above charts, the Head and Shoulders pattern on the EUR has already been violated and confirmed on June 17th

The target is roughly 1.3500..

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Daily Forecast for Crosses: June 23
by: Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Daily Forecast

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.3826 and closed at 1.3864. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but we might have another downside momentum testing key level support around 1.3750 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3650 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3950 (yesterday’s high). CCI in neutral area on h1 chart.

eurusddaily2


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD failed to continue it’s bullish scenario yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.6319 and closed at 1.6345. The bias is bearish in nearest term, but on h4 chart below we can see that actually the pair still trapped in triangle area. A breakdown from the triangle should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.6200 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart suggesting potential upside pressure testing resistance around 1.6450 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum back towards 1.6505/59 area.


gbpusd4hchart7


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY had moderate bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now testing trendline support. Break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 94.50 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 96.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

usdjpy4hchart9


USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we have breakout from triangle but the bullish momentum was not very convincing. However I am expecting further bullish attempt today testing 1.0950/70 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.0830. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdchf4hchart13


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 132.48 and closed at 132.91. The bias is bearish in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair is at critical phase, testing the trendline support. Break below the trendline support should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 130.70 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 133.15. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI just cross the -100 line down on daily chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurjpyh42

GBPJPY Forecast
After corrected higher on Friday, the GBPJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we have descending triangle formation indicating potential bearish scenario with 154.90 as key support level. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 151.70 and the trendline support area. Immediate resistance is seen at 156.40 followed by 157.05. CCI just cross the -100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

gbpjpydaily1

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had significant bearish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 0.7850 and closed at 0.7855. On Fibonacci retracement study (of 0.6280 – 0.8261) at daily chart below we can see that the pair is now testing 23.6% support area around 0.7800 which should be a key support level at this phase. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 0.7700 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.7930. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

audusddaily1

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Monday, June 22, 2009
Daily Forecast for Crosses: June 22
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Daily Forecast

From weekly chart point of view, the EURUSD had indecisive movement last week. On daily and h4 chart, this indecisive direction showed by 2 contradicted technical patterns, H&S on the bearish side and “Flag” on the bullish side. For me, as long as we do not have valid breakout/breakdown on one of those patterns, no trade should be placed. However, once one of the pattern confirmed, do not hesitate to place your trade. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050. Break above that area should trigger bullish momentum towards 1.4336 area. Initial support at 1.3850 followed by 1.3750. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

eurusd4hchart9


GBPUSD Daily Forecast

Similar to EURUSD, the GBPUSD also had indecisive movement last week. The pair attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.6559 but we have not seen convincing upside movement yet as the pair now traded below 1.6505 area. However we still have valid minor bullish channel on h1 chart. As long as the channel holds, expect further upside pressure in nearest term. Break above 1.6559 should trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.6660. Immediate support is seen at 1.6420. Break below that area or violation to the downside of the bullish channel should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6315 support area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

gbpusdhourly10


USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY failed to continue it’s bullish correction on Friday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 97.16 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit the low at 95.99 and closed at 96.16. In nearest term, as long as the pair stay below 97.20/60 resistance area, expect further downside pressure testing the support trendline (see the h4 chart below). Break below that support trendline should trigger further bearish momentum towards 93.80 area. Immediate support at 95.50. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdjpy4hchart8


USDCHF Daily Forecast

After corrected higher on Thursday, the USDCHF had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. However on h4 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in triangle area so I think we are still in no trading zone unless we have breakout/breakdown from the triangle. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0890. Initial support at 1.0760. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

usdchf4hchart12


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement on Friday by opened and closed at almost the same price. On h4 chart below we can see that the minor bullish channel has been violated to the upside indicating potential downside pressure testing the trendline support. Immediate support is seen at 133.60. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.50. Initial resistance at 134.60 followed by 135.15.

eurjpyh41

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. On h4 below we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to the upside, the pair topped at 159.60 but closed lower at 158.66. I think we are in no trading zone now. On the upside, trendline resistance on h4 chart should be an important resistance at this phase. Violation to the upside should trigger further bullish momentum testing 162.57 area. Immediate support is seen at 157.80 followed by 156.75. CCI about to cross the -100 line down on h1 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

gbpjpyh44

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. The pair slipped to the upside, hit the top at 0.8117 but failed to maintain the bullish momentum and closed lower at 0.8054. On h4 chart below we have triangle formation after bullish momentum indicating consolidation phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support is seen at 0.7950. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 0.7850. Initial resistance at 0.8117. Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario towards 0.8235. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

audusdh46


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