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Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





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Monday, August 30, 2010
Aug-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. We are still in bullish correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the rising wedge formation and 1.2680 support area testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 area. On the other hand, if the upside correction continues and price break above the rising wedge, we could see further upside correction testing 1.2825 – 1.2930 region which could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.5443 but closed higher at 1.5512. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle formation indicating consolidation. We are still in upside correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the triangle re-testing 1.5370. On the other hand, break above the triangle could trigger further upside correction testing 1.5700 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum on Friday and keep moving higher earlier today in Asian session traded around 85.70 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need a clear break above the trendline resistance to continue the upside pressure testing 86.25 and 87.00. Immediate support at 85.33 (current low). Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact re-testing 84.82 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bearish momentum was paused on Friday after found support around 1.0220 area. Expected intra-day range at 1.0350 – 1.0220. Overall the major bearish scenario remains intact but we have a falling wedge formation as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential bullish reversal scenario especially if price break above the formation testing 1.0450 – 1.0500 region. On the downside, clear break below 1.0220 could continue the bearish scenario testing 1.0130.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum on Friday and keep moving higher testing 109.20 resistance area earlier today in Asian session. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 110.40 region and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. Immediate support at 108.89 (current low). Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term as direction is unclear but should keep the major bearish scenario intact testing 107.65 region.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also continue its bullish correction on Friday and keep moving higher around 133.10 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 134.50 and the upper line of the major bearish channel but note that as long as price still move inside the bearish channel the major bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support at 132.52 (current low). Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term as direction is unclear but should keep the major bearish scenario intact testing 132.00 – 130.80 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum on Friday. As you can see on my h4 chart below price broke above the trendline resistance indicating potential further upside pressure especially if able to move above 0.9040 targeting 0.9145 – 0.9220. Immediate support at 0.8966. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but looks like the bearish scenario has failed and I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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Friday, August 27, 2010
Aug-27 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD continue to make upside pressure yesterday, topped at 1.2763 but still unable to move consistently above 1.2730, traded lower around 1.2700 at the time I wrote this comment. We are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another upside movement above 1.2730 could trigger another upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825. On the downside, a movement below 1.2650 and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could potentially end the upside correction testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5598 but traded lower around 1.5525 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact but we need a movement below 1.5480 to continue the downside pressure testing 1.5370 area. On the upside, another movement above 1.5580 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.5700 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday. Expected range in nearest term remains at 85.15 – 83.59/35 but still with more downside bias. Immediate support at 84.03. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 83.59/35. On the upside, only break above the trendline resistance could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0221. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0130. Immediate resistance at 1.0250/70. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone testing 1.0350 but overall the bias remains to the downside. On daily chart below, we have a falling wedge formation indicating potential bullish reversal warning in longer term view.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY slipped above 107.63 yesterday but so far the upside pressure still limited and unable to consistently move above that level. On h1 chart below we can see that the minor trendline support has been broken to the downside indicating potential downside pressure especially if price able to break below 106.80 re-testing 105.50 area. On the upside, 108.25 remains potential resistance to be tested if price make another move above 107.63.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 132.01 but traded lower around 131.02 at the time I wrote this comment indicating limited bullish correction. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still in major bearish scenario especially if price able to move consistently below 130.80 testing 129.80 area. On the upside, break above 132.00 could trigger further upside pressure testing 133.30 region.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above the trendline resistance, topped at 0.8917 but traded lower and struggling around key level 0.8858 earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. Consistent move below 0.8858 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.8715. On the upside, consistent move above the trendline resistance and 0.8917 could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario and lead us into neutral zone in medium term with potential bullish in nearest term testing 0.8970

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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Aug-26 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, topped at 1.2726 but further upside pressure was still limited and traded lower around 1.2670 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and still within a bearish context but price is bouncing to the upside from 1.2587, moving in a minor bullish channel. We need a violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel to continue the bearish scenario. Break above 1.2730 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825 region before testing 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.2620. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario intact.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD bearish scenario was paused yesterday. Price is now rebound significantly to the upside after unable to break below 1.5370 testing 1.5480 resistance area. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.5580. Immediate support at 1.5450. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.5370 before testing 1.5250 area.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY was corrected higher yesterday and keep moving higher around 84.80 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 85.15 and the trendline resistance. Break above the trendline resistance could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 85.63 but as long as price move below the trendline the major bearish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 84.03. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 83.59/35.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0246 but rebound higher earlier today in Asian session around 1.0297 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a clear break below 1.0250 to continue the bearish movement testing 1.0130 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.0350. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.0450.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made a significant bullish correction yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is now testing the 107.63 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 108.25 before testing 109.20 key resistance area. Immediate support at 106.80. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 105.42.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY also made a significant bullish correction yesterday and now move back above 130.80 key resistance area indicating potential further upside correction testing 132.00. Another move back below 130.80 could end the bullish correction testing 129.80 before re-testing 128.76.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD made another downside attempt, bottomed at 0.8769 but further downside pressure was still limited and now traded higher around 0.8858 key level. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another consistent move above 0.8858 could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.8904 and 0.8966. On the downside, 0.8715 remains key support level.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Aug-25 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD has been moving in volatile but indecisive market for the last 48 hours. After the confirmation of “head and shoulders” bearish reversal scenario, now price is moving in a new bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This bearish outlook can only be cancelled by a movement above the right shoulder of the H&S formation which is around 1.2930 and violation to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.2730 followed by 1.2770. We will have some high impact data from the Euro zone and US today. The Euro usually move higher after data release lately but the bullish moves were short lived. Tricky market, but I am still on the bearish side.


GBPUSD Forecast
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5371 but rebound higher earlier today in Asian session traded around 1.5420 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside especially if price able to move consistently below 1.5371 targeting 1.5250 region. On daily chart below we can see some V top patterns which usually followed by bearish movement. Immediate resistance at 1.5470 – 1.5500. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.5580 but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Pay attention to some economic data from the Euro zone and US today.


USDJPY Forecast
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 83.59 but rebound higher earlier today in Asian session around 84.30 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the downside with 83.35 area to be tested. Immediate resistance at 85.15.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday and now back below 1.0350 indicating potential further downside pressure but overall we haven’t seen convincing and clear movement and price still consolidating in range area. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0257 – 1.0220 region. Another movement above 1.0350 could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction is unclear and we are in no trading zone.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 105.42 but rebound higher traded around 106.70 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Although the main scenario remains bearish, watch out for potential significant upside rebound as price is now rebounding from one of the major supports, 105.50 area. Immediate resistance at 107.30. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 108.25. Below 105.50, next bearish target around 104.63.


GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 128.76 but rebound higher around 130.12 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within the context of bearish scenario testing 127.63. Immediate resistance at 130.80. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped below 0.8858 key support area yesterday but still unable to move consistently below that area so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I believe the major trend is about to change to bearish but need consistent move below the descending triangle and 0.8858 targeting at least 0.8715. Immediate resistance at 0.8904 (yesterday’s high).

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Aug-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday and seems convincingly move below 1.2700 area. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 region as the “head and shoulders” bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. Another upside pullback above 1.2700 will lead us to neutral zone as direction is unclear but I think overall the pressure is more to the downside and I prefer short on rallies at this phase.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.5616 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.5499 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.5433. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.5380. Immediate resistance at 1.5470 – 1.5500. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone testing 1.5580 resistance area but the bearish reversal scenario is confirmed and I prefer to short on rallies.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday. The bias is bearish in nearest term but note that we have a strong support around 84.82/73 area that need to be broken to the downside to open the door testing 83.35 region. Immediate resistance at 85.66 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 86.25 and the trendline resistance.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue its bearish scenario yesterday and now back above 1.0350. From longer term perspective this fact leads us back to range area and neutral zone. CCI about to cross the 100 line up on h4 chart indicating potential upside pressure testing 1.0500 – 1.0550.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 107.71 an hit 107.22 earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but I think we have an important support around 107.30 area as it is the lower line of the range area on monthly chart which potentially provide a strong support at this phase. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 106.75 (November 2001 low) and 105.50 (September 2001 low). Immediate resistance at 108.25 followed by 109.20.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 132.02 and hit 131.16 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 130.83. Immediate resistance at 132.00. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in bearish scenario and I prefer short on rallies strategy at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8981 but closed lower at 0.8913. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we have potential descending triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential bearish scenario especially if price able to move consistently below 0.8858 key support area testing 0.8715. Immediate resistance at 0.8981 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9040.

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Monday, August 23, 2010
Aug-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure on Friday, slipped below the major bullish channel and 1.2700 key support area, bottomed at 1.2664 but rebounded to the upside and traded above 1.2700 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below 1.2700 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.2610 before testing 1.2500 – 1.2470. Fundamental focus will be on some Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers today. If we have good numbers, potential resistance to be tested is at 1.2780 and 1.2930 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD slipped below 1.5500 on Friday, but closed higher at 1.5531 and keep moving higher around 1.5660 earlier today in Asian session at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside could set up a bearish view testing 1.5380. Immediate resistance at 1.5590. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pullback testing 1.5680 – 1.5700 area but I prefer a short on rallies at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY still consolidating so far in range area of 86.25 – 84.82/73 with no significant technical move. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and the major scenario remains to the downside but we need a clear break below 84.82/73 key support area to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. On the upside, the trendline resistance remains my key resistance area at this phase. Break above that trendline could diminish the bearish outlook testing 87.00/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bearish momentum was paused on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay below 1.0350 the pressure should more to the downside testing 1.0220 region. Immediate resistance at 1.0392 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could lead us back to neutral zone and range market testing 1.0450 – 1.0500 resistance area.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 108.25 but closed a little bit higher at 108.83. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 108.07 – 107.30. Immediate resistance at 109.20. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone but the main scenario remains bearish and I prefer short on rallies at this phase.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 131.98 but closed significantly higher at 133.01. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario testing 130.83 especially if price able to move consistently below 132.00. Immediate resistance at 133.75 and the upper line of the minor bearish channel. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 134.80 but the main scenario remains to the downside as long as price still move inside the major bearish channel.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD slipped below 0.8858 key support area on Friday but further bearish pressure was rejected as price closed significantly higher at 0.8920. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish scenario is in serious threat but unless we have a consistent move below 0.8858, the bullish scenario should remain intact. Immediate resistance at 0.8966 followed by 0.9040. A movement above 0.9040 could trigger further upside pressure testing 0.9145 and keep the bullish scenario alive and kicking. Below 0.8858, bearish target is seen around 0.8715 area.

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Friday, August 20, 2010
Aug-20 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2772 but dragged higher after Sterling strengthen against Dollar on better than expected UK retail sales number, topped at 1.2902 and closed lower at 1.2821, still in volatile but indecisive market. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle indicating consolidation so far. The major bullish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bullish channel. Break to the upside of the triangle and 1.2930 resistance area could trigger further recovery testing 1.3000. Immediate support at 1.2700/35 area. Break below that area could be a serious threat the the bullish outlook.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5508 but again, positive fundamental data, good retail sales number denied further bearish pressure and push Cable to the upside, up more than 100 pips just in the first 30 minutes after the data release, topped at 1.5670 and closed lower at 1.5599, formed another Doji on daily chart indicating another indecisive market. On h4 chart below we can see price has been moving in range area of 1.5700 – 1.5500 indicating consolidation since August 12. We need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Break above 1.5700 could trigger further upside recovery testing 1.5820 while break below 1.5500 could confirm the bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.5450 – 1.5380 region.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and there are no significant technical moves so far. Expected range remains at 86.25 – 84.82/73 but still within major bearish scenario which need a clear break below 84.82/73 to continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35. On the upside, the trendline resistance remains my key resistance area at this phase. Break above that trendline could diminish the bearish outlook testing 87.00/50 region.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made a significant move yesterday, break below 1.0350 key support area, bottomed at 1.0258 but closed higher at 1.0318. This fact could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.0220 but another move above 1.0350 could lead us back to range area and neutral zone testing 1.0450 – 1.0500. Below 1.0220, the next bearish target is seen around 1.0130.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower but still unable to move consistently below 109.20 strong support area so far. The bias is remains neutral in nearest term but still within the major bearish scenario. Clear break below 109.20 could trigger further downside pressure testing 108.07 – 107.30. Immediate resistance at 110.12 (yesterday’s high) followed by 110.70.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday but closed at the opening price formed a Doji on daily chart indicating indecisive movement. I made some adjustments to the minor bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario. Immediate support at 132.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 132.00. Initial resistance at 134.50. Break above that area could trigger further upside recovery in the circle area but as long as price move inside the major bearish channel the main scenario remains bearish.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday, bottomed at 0.8904 and keep moving lower earlier today in Asian session. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.8858 key support area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook even potential bearish reversal scenario at least testing 0.8715 region. Immediate resistance at 0.8965 followed by 0.9040.

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Thursday, August 19, 2010
Aug-19 Daily Forex Forcast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2921, but closed lower at 1.2851 and keep moving lower around 1.2800 earlier today in Asian market at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that price break below the triangle indicating potential downside pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.2700 key support area. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.2930 area. As long as the major bullish channel hold the bullish scenario remains intact but need to make consistent move above 1.2930 to make further recovery testing 1.3000 area.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5497 but made a temporary fast bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5686 after the MPC meeting before whipsawed to the downside, hit 1.5549 earlier today in Asian market. This fact could trigger further downside pressure for the Cable even potentially trigger a technical bearish reversal outlook especially if price able to move consistently below 1.5550/30 area targeting 1.5450 – 1.5380 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5700. Price need to move above that area if we want to see further recovery towards 1.5800 region and keep the bullish scenario intact.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made another insignificant movement yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term with expected range remains at 86.25 – 84.82/73 but still in the context of a major bearish scenario. We know that 84.82/73 area is a strong support at this phase so price need to break below that area before continue the bearish scenario testing 83.35 region. On the upside, only a move above the trendline resistance could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday. The only technically clue I can see right now is that price is making higher lows in the last three days indicating potential upside pressure in nearest term but overall we are still trapped in range area of 1.0675 – 1.0350. Immediate resistance at 1.0480. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.0550. On the downside, only a clear break below 1.0350 could trigger bearish continuation scenario testing 1.0220.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY didn’t make significant move yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish scenario. Expected range remains at 110.70 – 109/20. Price need to make a clear break below 109.20 to continue the bearish scenario testing 108.07 – 107.30 area. On the upside, a move above 110.70 resistance area could lead us to neutral area in medium term outlook.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h4 below we can see price is making a minor bearish channel inside the major bearish channel which indicate that we are still in convincing bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 133.73 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 134.50 area but as long as price moves inside the major bearish channel the main scenario remains to the downside with 132.00/50 as the nearest target.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after failed to move consistently above 0.9040, bottomed at 0.8972 and closed at 0.8982. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.8858 but only a clear break below 0.8858 could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook. On the upside, we still need a consistent move above 0.9040 to continue the bullish scenario testing 0.9145.

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