On-Line Forex Trading Tips

The EURUSD bearish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakdown from the broadening formation price retreat to the upside but still able to stay outside the broadening formation so far. Technically speaking, a retreat or a pullback after breakout/breakdown is normal and often happen in the market and as long price stay outside the formation, the bearish scenario remains intact.

We have US GDP data today that should be a very important data. A worse than expected GDP should be good for the Greenback and we should see further Euro weakness towards 1.3870 while a better data could cancel the bearish outlook and probably trigger significant strength for the Euro re-testing 1.4336 once again. Good luck

The GBPUSD failed to continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6525 and closed at 1.6491. Surely we haven’t seen significant move and clear direction so far, but we have US GDP data today that could be very important data that could trigger significant movement and potential clearer direction. A worse that expected GDP should be good for the Dollar and we should have a bearish momentum testing trendline support as seen on daily chart below, and if the trendline support is broken we should have further bearish scenario testing key level 1.6000. However, a better than expected GDP should be good for the Cable and give us potential bullish scenario re-testing 1.6660 area. Good luck

USD/JPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. The triple top formation has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish outlook testing 96.50 – 97.00 area. However it’s still too early for bullish outlook in medium term since actually the pair is still below the trendline resistance. The current bullish momentum might be strong enough to test the trendline resistance but until it is broken, the bullish scenario is not confirmed yet. In nearest term, as long as the pair stay above 95.30 area, I prefer a bullish outlook. But once traded below that area, we should see further bearish pullback.

USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF had indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. As you can see on h4 chart below, the pair attempted to push higher but failed to stay consistently above 1.0922 area. Important range to be watched today is 1.0922 – 1.0800. A breakout/breakdown from that range area should give us a clearer direction. A breakout above 1.0922 should trigger further upside momentum towards 1.1022 while a breakdown below 1.0800 should trigger further bearish scenario back towards 1.0620 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 134.87 and closed at 134.40. On h4 chart below we can see that technical mess continue as the pair now back above the trendline indicating indecisive, market hesitation and unclear direction. What is the best thing to do in this situation? Nothing. Just stay away from the market until we have a clear direction. Immediate resistance at 134.90. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 136.08 area. Initial support at 133.20.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the rising wedge bearish scenario has failed as the price maintain position convincingly above the trendline. This fact should be seen as potential bullish outlook at least testing 158.60 area. However, CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pullback testing 157.00 – 156.50 support area. Break below that area should be seen as potential bullish failure.

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD had another bullish momentum yesterday after corrected lower on Wednesday. Today we have US GDP data that should be very important for us to determine whether we have confirmation on bullish continuation scenario or go back into boring range market or even potential bearish scenario. A worse than expected GDP data should cancel the bullish outlook while a better than expected data should support bullish outlook towards 0.8500 area. Good luck

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For today just a brief outlook of GU as I see it now before London session:

On H4 my indicators are turning flat, with slight bearish bias indicating correction but not necessarily reversal back to longs. We are sitting on a key H4 supporting TL @1.6350 & so far it looks like holding. I will be playing the retracement scenario today, buying small for targets up to 1.6480. That is the limit of the upside as far as I’m concerned, at least for today (which doesn’t mean i enter short but I will be exiting longs & stay out). H1 is so far supporting the correction plan with divergences on RoC & stoch while MA’s turn bullish right as I write this. The MA system on M15 gave me the entry @1.6390, stop is now 6368 – however I will need this trade to advance fast in the next hour to get me off the hook.

Elliott-wave-wise I am seeing this move as a flat correction started @1.6346 – the current bullish wave if confirmed & sustained should be the last leg up before an aggressive drop (W3 red on H4).

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD failed to continue bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4303 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hit bottom at 1.4130 and closed at 1.4171. Consistent move below 1.4150 should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.4050 support area. Immediate resistance at 1.4250 followed by 1.4336. However the broadening formation as shown on h4 chart below suggests volatile market without clear direction in medium term where price can reach a new low just after it touched a new high which often happen lately. I still prefer to stay away from the market.

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that this time the rising wedge formation has violated to the downside suggests a potential bearish view in nearest term but remains unclear in medium term. We have good support around 1.6380 area. Only a clear break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.6300 – 1.6250 area. Immediate resistance at 1.6450 – 1.6490 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY failed to maintain bullish view by fell back below 94.60 yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now testing the trendline support. A breakdown to the downside should set us a bearish view back towards 92.70 area. Immediate support at 93.70. Only break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure.

USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle has been violated to the upside suggests potential bullish view. However we have a good resistance around 1.0800 area. Only a clear break above that area should trigger further bullish pressure towards 1.0900 area. Immediate support at 1.0710 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 132.88 and closed at 133.93. It was technically a mess where price seemed to had a valid breakout from the resistance trendline but then retreated back below the trendline and now testing the bullish trendline support as seen at h4 chart below. A violation to that trendline support should set up a bearish view. Immediate support is seen at 132.90. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.50 area. Initial resistance at 134.60.

GBPJPY Forecast
The double top formation around 157.59 area I showed you yesterday was proved to be a good signal of a bearish pullback. The pair bottomed at 154.12 and closed at 155.20. On h4 chart below we have a violated rising wedge formation which is also support bearish view. This fact should cancel the bullish scenario for now. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 153.70 and even 152.30 area. Immediate resistance at 155.60. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had significant bullish momentum yesterday. Finally, after 9 weeks of range (consolidation) market between 0.7700 – 0.8261 the pair break above 0.8261, topped at 0.8337 but closed lower at 0.8235. Surely we have a hope for potential continuation bullish trend (which should give us a chance to trade) , but the fact that the pair closed below 0.8261 suggests that the bullish trend is not mature yet. So we have to be really careful here. Only consistent move above 0.8261 should trigger further bullish scenario targeting 0.8500 area. Immediate support at 0. 8150.

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As the market is slowly going towards a breakout point in most majors (it spends most of the time in a range, but not ALL the time!), I just wanted to signal a possible long-term opportunity that can arise around the current levels on GBPJPY. I’m looking to make a move & sell GBPJPY somewhere in the 1.57 area IF AND ONLY IF I get the right signal in the next few sessions. Here’s what I have in mind:

First, on the W1 chart we can see that the momentum of the move from 118.80 to 162.58 is obviously broken, and the trend line supporting that rally broke @153. For the last month, the move that broke the trend line was also retraced (check D1 chart) & now price is re-testing the same broken TL around 157-157.50. For me, this is the key area for SMALL shorts with long-term aim. Could this be the last push up before the REAL drop, just like it happened before, in 2007? Remember, history does not repeat itself but it can teach us a lot through its cyclical nature…

I hope it is well understood that I am not suggesting shorts YET, but if short-term charts are giving short signals that conicide with this longer-term scenario, wouldn’t it be nice to hold on to some positions with potential for long-term rallies, while only risking an intra-day stop?

D1 is currently divergent, with a nice double top @157.38, but the bullish trends on D1 & H4 continue to be bull @ the time of this writing. Maybe the time to shoot has not come yet. Nevertheless, my H4 chart only needs 155.20 to turn my indicators bearish & confirm the double top. I’m planning to put on my first short (half lot) around that area & add later down @155.00 & 153.00 for a nice big target (i’m thinking 140.00 & below). Another possibility would be shorting higher up @157.50 or at a spike above this level, with nicer R/R but higher risk. In any case, I will need my M15 & M5 to turn bearish before shorting, no matter how aggressive the level may be. While M15 & M5 are bullish (like they are right now) I cannot even short for a small target.

Finally, what if the bear setup is never confirmed? The 157.50 will probably turn into support, & the bulls can continue their joyride up to 163 first, then 178-180, where I see another possible turning point. For me the bearish setup will fail as 158 is broken on H4&D1 – from there I will start looking up once again.

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EURUSD Forecast
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, hit a seven week high at 1.4297 but closed lower at 1.4242. We are getting closer to the key level 1.4336. Only a clear break above that area should give us a bullish view towards 1.4719 area. Until that happen, I still prefer to keep stay out. We have been patiently waiting for several weeks now so it should not be a problem to wait just a little more (I hope). Immediate support at 1.4150. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.4050.

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.6380 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 1.6522 and closed at 1.6490. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakout from the rising wedge formation. The bias is neutral both in nearest and medium term. Immediate resistance at 1.6590. Initial support at 1.6380. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair has been able to stay above key level 94.60 in the last three days. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 96.05 area but remains neutral in medium term. CCI almost cross the 100 line on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pressure.

USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on Daily chart. On h4 chart below we also have triangle formation indicating consolidation. We have no clear direction so far, so stay away from the market. Immediate resistance at 1.0750. Consistent move above that area should trigger further bullish pressure towards 1.0900. Initial support at 1.0620. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday. The pair breakout from the triangle, topped at 136.08 and closed at 135.59. This fact should set up bullish view for us. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 138.90 area. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 134.90. Break below that area should lead us back into no trading zone.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 157.45 and closed at 156.95. The bias is bullish in nearest term. However, on h4 chart below we seem to have good resistance around 157.59, a double top formation which suggests potential downside rebound testing 156.00 area. Break below that area should be seen as potential threat to the bullish outlook. Break above 157.59 should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 158.50.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.8258 and closed at 0.8229. We are in critical point now and about to see whether this bullish momentum is strong enough to break above 0.8261 area and set up a bullish view for us towards 0.8500 area. Immediate support at 0.8170/50 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

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EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push higher on Friday, topped at 1.4252 but further upside momentum seemed limited as the pair closed a little bit lower at 1.4200. The broadening formation should keep us stay away from the market but a clear breakout above 1.4250/70 area could trigger further bullish momentum re-testing key level 1.4336. Immediate support at 1.4150. Break below that area should trigger further downside pressure towards 1.4050. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart below we have a rising wedge formation suggests a potential further downside momentum especially if the rising wedge violated to the downside. The bias is bearish in nearest term but remains unclear in medium term. Immediate support at 1.6380. Clear break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.6290 area. Initial resistance at 1.6505 followed by 1.6590. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY bullish momentum was paused on Friday. The bias is neutral both on nearest and medium term. On h1 chart below we have a descending triangle formation indicating a potential downside pullback scenario especially if break below 94.60. Immediate resistance at 95.30. Break above that area should trigger further upside momentum towards 96.10 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 1.0671 but the bearish pressure was limited as the pair closed a little bit higher at 1.0716. On h1 chart below we have triangle formation indicating consolidation. Break from the triangle should give us a clearer direction. Immediate resistance at 1.0750 – 1.0800 area. Clear break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.0900.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement on Friday formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is struggling around trendline area. We also have triangle formation indicating consolidation. A breakout from the triangle should trigger further bullish momentum and set up a bullish outlook while a breakdown should be seen as potential bullish failure. Immediate support at 134.30 – 133.80 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 131.50. Initial resistance at 135.60. Break above that area should trigger further bullish scenario testing 136.80.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum on Friday. Like I said on Saturday, the pair is now in critical technical point. If the pair able to stay above the trendline we should have a bullish outlook. If not, we should pay attention to the trendline support on h4 chart below. A Breakdown below that trendline support should be seen as bullish failure and set up a bearish outlook. Immediate resistance at 156.40. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 157.59 area. Initial support at 154.95 followed by 153.90.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. Surely we are still in no trading zone. On daily chart below we can see that the pair has been consolidating between 0.8261 – 0.7700 area after a bullish run from 0.6283 on March. Only clear break above 0.8261 should be seen at potential bullish continuation. Immediate support at 0.8100 followed by 1.8050.

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by: Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD: I Don’t Trust My CCI!

The broadening formation I showed you in the last 2 days give us a good suggestion of a volatile market where price make new highs and new lows without a clear direction and keep me stay away from the market, which proved to be the best thing to do now. Some guys asked me about my CCI set up. They thought that my CCI set up is good and try to find some “secret” in it. Of course, CCI is a great indicator, simple but powerful. However, it’s not my “secret” or a “holy grail”. I don’t use CCI to determine the trend, because I believe that is not the function of the CCI (or any indicators). I use it to find potential momentum, breakout/breakdown, rebounds etc. I depend on chart patterns to determine the trend, bullish, bearish or trendless. So I only trust my CCI when it support or confirm my chart patterns. If not, I don’t trust it. The current situation is one good example when I don’t trust my CCI. On daily chart below we can see that CCI is just crossed the 100 line down. The interpretation is that the pair has a big probability to make a bearish momentum to the downside. But, the broadening formation suggests that we have no clear direction yet and the facts in the last 7 weeks support that conclusion. So, right now I don’t trust my CCI. Of course, I am not saying that the pair won’t go south, but when my indicator conflicting with my chart patterns, I prefer to do nothing. Keep stay out from the market and good luck.

GBPUSD Daily Forecast

Similar to EURUSD, the GBPUSD had volatile market without a clear direction. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.6584 but further upside pressure was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.6485. I don’t know how long you guys can stay with no trade condition, but I will keep stay out from the market as long as it shows no clear direction and still trapped in 1.6660 – 1.6000 area. I don’t care if it takes weeks or even months. This is not about predicting the direction, but the mindset of how I stay discipline with my system and protect my capital, which much more important than any “prediction”. Remember, market will always reward patient traders. Good luck .

USDJPY Daily Forecast

The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 95.28 and closed at 95.01. For me, this fact is a violation of my bearish medium term. The bias is bullish in nearest term. However we seem to have good resistance around 95.30 area. In my opinion, only a clear break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and give us a buy signal targeting 96.05. CCI in overbought area and heading down so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 94.60. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

USDCHF Daily Forecast

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0771 but closed below 1.0750. On daily chart below we can see that it seems like the trendline support is doing a good job preventing further bearish attack. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we need a consistent move above 1.0750 – 1.0800 area to have potential further upside momentum testing 1.0950. Failure to do so might lead us back towards 1.0620 area.

EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 135.60 but closed lower at 134.46. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakout from trendline resistance. I think we are still in no trading zone and do not rush jump into the market since we have no confirmation on bullish scenario yet. Immediate support at 134.20 – 133.80 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 135.60 (yesterday’s high). Consistent movement above that area should be seen as bullish confirmation at least towards 136.70 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside rebound.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that we have a breakout on trendline resistance suggesting potential bullish outlook. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 158.50. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside correction testing 155.20 support area. Break below that area should cancel the bullish scenario. The market has been very tricky lately so use only tight money management at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
The broadening formation I showed you yesterday gave us a good signal to stay out of of the market. We had a volatile market without clear direction where price whipsawed to the downside, hit the bottom (0.8105) after hit the top (0.8221). Until we have more significant movement, let this formation be our guide for now to keep out of the market. Good luck .

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