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Friday, August 28, 2009
EUR US session Probability Study and Farewell

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

First of all, before I start with the Probability Study on the EUR/USD, I would like to thank all the people out there who have been following by Probability Study commentaries and articles here at Forex Factory and FXInstructor’s Blog

From today, only a select few will be able to post their articles at Forex Factory and therefore I suggest to all my followers to please use the following link in the future to obtain Probability Study and various other commentaries:

http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/resources/commentaries.php

Once again, a big “thanks” to all traders out there whom have been emailing me and corresponding with me in the Live Trading Room at FXInstructor

Below follows an “in-depth” Probability Study on the EUR which will provide an outlook for the US session as well as the Asian session tomorrow:

daily1

On the chart above you can see a slightly compressed daily chart of the EUR/USD

daily2

Step 1: Identify the most active trend which from now on will be known as the Major Trend

daily3

Step 2: Identify the most active cycle within the Major Trend which is known as the Current Trend

4hour

Step 3: Move over to a 4 hour chart and identify the most active cycle. This new cycle is known as the 60 minute trend and is also the primary indicator of the Direction of Highest Probability

60

Lastly, I move to a 1 hour chart to have a closer look at the 60 minute trend as well as the 1 hour exponential Stochastic

Now that we know that the 60 minute trend is bullish, the direction of highest probability is bullish as well

The 1 hour Stochastic indicates where market rhythm is trending on the lower time frames and at this stage the 1 hour stochastic is bullish but also indicating a possible cross to the downside. Should a bearish cross be confirmed we will have a no trade zone and of course then I will stand aside

Should the 1 hour stochastic continue upwards, it will indicate that market rhythm is trending higher and then of course I will have a suitable bullish trading condition to execute my trading system within

The 60 minute trend support resides at 1.4230. If the latter support is violated then the direction of highest probability will be bearish

Therefore, if the 60 minute trend remains intact, we can expect a bullish probability for the US and Asian session but if it is violated, the bias will be short. All I have to do then is wait for a bearish 1 hour stochastic for a bearish trading condition

I hope this clears things up for you from a technical perspective and please email me if you have any questions or join our Live Trading Room to hear me speak about the Probability Study technique

Farewell and happy pipping to everyone at Forex Factory!

Johan Kriek

Labels:

Aug-28 Daily Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4405 and closed at 1.4347. On h1 chart below we can see that the lower line of the bullish channel has provided us with a good support prevented further bearish pressure suggesting that bullish scenario remains intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4446 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside pullback testing 1.4290 support area. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
After three days of bearish momentum the GBPUSD was corrected higher yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6152 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.6304 and closed at 1.6268. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of false breakdown from the bullish channel lower line (blue). The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6360 area but the bearish channel (red) remains valid indicating the bearish scenario remains intact. Immediate support is seen at 1.6250/10 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. I prefer to stay out for now. We will have UK’s revised GDP data today. A positive result should trigger more bullish momentum while a negative result should continue the bearish scenario.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 93.21 and closed at 93.45. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel (blue) has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish continuation. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 92.70. However CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 94.00 resistance area. Break above that area should lead us back to no trading zone.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0527 and closed at 1.0586. On h1 chart below we have a broadening formation where price is making new highs and lows without clear direction. The bias is bearish in nearest term but I prefer to stay out for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.0527 (yesterdays’ low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.0430 area. Initial resistance at 1.0650 followed by 1.0750.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, hit my short target at 132.90 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 134.44 and closed at 134.08. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bullish channel (blue) to the downside, the pair is making a new bearish channel (red) but price is now ready to test the upper line of the bearish channel. A a violation to the bearish channel should be seen as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum but at this phase that would be a no trading zone for me. Immediate resistance at 134.70. Break above that area should lead to further bullish momentum towards 135.85 area. Initial support 133.90. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 151.05 but closed higher at 152.02. On h4 chart below we still have the bearish channel indicating the bearish scenario remains intact. I still prefer a downside scenario but we might have further upside correction today. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pressure. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 153.40. Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure. Initial support at 152.00. Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario towards 150.80 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.8417 and closed at 0.8387. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support (which also the lower line of the new triangle) did a good job prevented further bearish pressure. From a bigger view, we have a triangle formation indicating a consolidation with the pressure is on the upside now. The bias is bullish in nearest term but wee need a clear breakout from the triangle to confirm bullish scenario targeting 0.8500. Immediate support at 0.8350. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure.

audusdh4

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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Aug-27 Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bearish momentum on mixed economy data yesterday. We had a positive numbers on US Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales but Stocks and oil dropped and Dollar got some support on weak Core Durable Goods Order. The better-than-expected Germany Ifo Business climate didn’t give much support for the Euro. The pair bottomed at 1.4205 and closed at 1.4240.

On h1 chart below we can see that the rectangle area (range area) has been violated to the downside suggesting potential bearish pressure in nearest term as the price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel and 50% Fibo retracement of 1.4044 – 1.4375 around 1.4210 area. That area should provide a good support at this phase but a clear break below that area should lead us back into 1.4170 even 1.4050 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4250/80 area. Break above that could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4375 area.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6158 and closed at 1.6230. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair slipped below the lower line of the bullish channel (the same bullish channel I showed you on daily chart yesterday) but price retreated to the upside and now struggling around the bullish channel lower line. The bias remains bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below the lower line of the bullish channel for more bearish confirmation targeting 1.6050 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6280. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and lead us into no trading zone.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel still hold preventing further bearish attack. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but if the bearish pressure continue and we have a clear break below 93.70/80 and if the bullish channel violated to the downside should trigger further bearish pressure and could potentially put the end to the bullish correction. Immediate resistance at 94.50 followed by 95.05.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0715 and closed at 1.0683. On h1 chart below we can see that after made a breakout to the upside of range area the pair had a bullish momentum, forming a new bullish channel. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.0750 and test the trendline resistance area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out for potential downside pressure testing 1.0640. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 133.90 and closed at 134.19. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating bullish failure and potential bearish outlook. However we need a clear break below 133.90 area to confirm bearish scenario targeting 132.90 area. Immediate resistance at 134.70 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurjpyh4
GBPJPY Forecast
The triangle breakdown gave us a valid bearish signal yesterday. The pair bottomed at 152.21 and closed at 152.94. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 150.80 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 153.40 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below trendline support (red, now become resistance) the pair had some bearish momentum, bottomed at 0.8251 and closed at 0.8268 but trendline support (blue) still hold so far. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a break below the trendline support (blue) and consistent move below 0.8261 area to confirm the bearish scenario targeting 0.8170 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 0.8320 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

audusdh4

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Aug-26 Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast: Remains Consolidating, Waiting for Durable Good Order and Home Sales

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji formation on daily chart. Even after some positive data from the Euro zone and a better than expected US Consumer Confidence which rose to 54.1 in August the Dollar still have some support at 1.4375 resistance area. However, growing optimism that the global economy crisis is ending should support the Euro and wane the demand for the Greenback. Today we will have US Core Durable Goods Order and New Home Sales data. The market is expecting a positive results to support it’s optimistic view so a disappointing numbers could be bad for the Euro as risk aversion may increase.

On h1 chart below we can see that the pair is consolidating, moving in rectangle area between 1.4250 – 1.4375. The scenario should remains potential bullish but so far the Dollar seems to have good technical support at 1.4375 area. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. A break from the range area should give us a clearer direction. I am expecting a break above 1.4375 to continue bullish scenario towards 1.4719. However a break below 1.4250 should diminished the bullish view and could lead us back into 1.4170 or even 1.4050 area.

eurusdhourly



GBPUSD Forecast: Current Bearish Momentum Testing The Bullish Channel

The GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6329 and closed at 1.6341. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is making a minor bearish channel (red) after some bullish momentum which form a bullish channel (blue) since July 08. The bias remains bearish and still targeting 1.4270 area but I prefer to stand aside for now since the lower line of the bullish channel could provide a good support, giving me a bad risk- reward ratio. A break below 1.4270 and violation to the bullish channel should trigger further bearish momentum and outlook. If the bullish channel hold, we might see an upside rebound testing 1.6440/70 area.

Today we will have US Core Durable Goods Order and New Home Sales data. The market is expecting a positive results to support it’s optimistic view so a disappointing numbers could be bad for the Sterling as risk aversion may increase.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 93.78 but failed to closed below 94.00 area. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bearish channel to the upside, the pair is now making a new bullish channel indicating a potential bullish rebound. So, as long as the pair able to stay above 94.00 area, expect further bullish rebound back towards 95.05 area. However a failure to stay above 94.00 and break below 93.78 should continue the bearish momentum.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair is trapped is rectangle area between 1.0560 – 1.0640 indicating consolidation. A break from the rectangle area should give us a clearer direction. A breakout to the upside should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.0750 area while a breakdown to the downside should continue the bearish scenario towards 1.0430 and 1.0360 area.

usdchfhourly


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 133.94 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 135.85 and closed lower at 134.69. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel (blue) was tested but still hold so far keep the bullish scenario intact. Only a violation to the bullish channel could cancel the bullish outlook. We seem to have a downside pressure right now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. I prefer to stay away and wait for further development. Immediate support is seen at 133.94 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 132.90 area. Initial resistance at 135.85.
eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after had some bearish momentum since August 07, the pair has been consolidated in triangle area and now the triangle has been break to the downside suggests a bearish view/continuation. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 152.10 area. Immediate resistance at 154.20. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone and could be potential threat to the bearish outlook.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8425 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 0.8341. On h4 below we can see that the pair is now re-testing the trendline support. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below the trendline support before heading for 0.8261 area. Initial resistance at 0.8425/50 area.

audusdh4

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Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Aug-25 Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo

EURUSD Forecast: Consolidating Ahead of Consumer Confidence, Bullish Channel Tested

The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday. The better-than-expected Euro industrial new orders failed to support the Euro even actual number rose to 3.1%. Today, fundamental focus will be on US Consumer Confidence which is expected to show a better number at 48.0 (Econoday) from 46.6 last month. A worse than expected numbers could be bad for the Euro as risk aversion may increase as investors may reduce their optimism about the recovery, while a better than expected numbers could support the Euro as risk appetite may increase.

Technically on h1 chart below, we have a triangle inside the bullish channel indicating consolidation within the bullish context as long as the bullish channel hold. The bias is neutral in nearest term. A Break from the triangle should give us a clearer direction. A breakout to the upside should continue the bullish scenario towards 1.4446 while a breakdown to the downside and violation to the bullish channel should be seen as bullish failure and trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4050 area.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6391 and closed at 1.6412. On h4 chart below we can see that the triangle formation has been violated to the downside indicating a bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.6270 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on h1 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6490 and 1.6540 area.

Today we will have US Consumer Confidence data which expected to rise at 48.0 from 46.6 last month. A worse than expected numbers should support my bearish view, while a better than expected numbers might give support to the Sterling as risk appetite may rise.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, hit my first long target at 95.05 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside and closed lower at 94.49. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pullback testing the upper line of the bearish channel which is now become a support area. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay away now and wait for further development. Immediate support is seen at 94.00 area. As long as the pair able to stay above that area, the bullish scenario remains intact. However, a break below that area and a movement back inside the bearish channel should be seen as bullish failure and potentially trigger further bearish pressure. Initial resistance at 95.05 (yesterday’s high).

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. The double bottom formation around 1.0560 area I told you yesterday gave us a valid warning of an upside rebound. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is now back inside the rectangle area. I think we area in no trading zone now. Immediate resistance at 1.0650 followed by 1.0750. Initial support at 1.0560. CCI just cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting potential upside pressure.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY failed to continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 136.07 but further bullish momentum was rejected and closed lower at 134.97. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bearish channel (red) to the upside, the pair is making a new bullish channel (blue) but price retreated to the downside headed toward the bullish channel lower line and the bearish channel upper line area. A pullback to the downside after breakout from bearish channel is often happen and as long as the new bullish channel hold, the bullish scenario in medium term remains intact. However the bias is bearish in nearest term as the price may retreat further to the downside testing the bullish channel lower line. I prefer to stay out for now. Immediate support at 134.85 – 134.20 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum and could be a potential threat to the bullish scenario. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 156.80 but further bullish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the downside, hot the bottom at 154.81 and closed at 155.08. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakout from the triangle. We have some downside pressure as the pair seems ready to test the lower line of the triangle. A breakdown after a false breakout usually lead to significant bearish momentum, so if we have a breakdown to the triangle today, the Sterling may fall further against the Yen. Immediate support is seen at 154.00. A Clear break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum. Initial resistance at 156.80 area (yesterday’s high).

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 0.8427 but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 0.8373. On h4 chart below we can see that after breakout above the trendline resistance, the pair now retreat to the downside testing the trendline which is now become a support. The bias is neutral in nearest term but if the trendline violated to the downside we may have further bearish momentum towards 0.8261 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8450 – 0.8500 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure.

audusdh4

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Monday, August 24, 2009
Aug-24 Daily Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum on Friday, topped at 1.4375 and closed at 1.4324. On h1 chart below we can see that the bearish channel has been convincingly violated to the upside indicating bearish failure and potential bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4446 area. Break above that area could set up further bullish scenario towards 1.4719. But notice, that we need a consistent move above 1.4336 to confirm the bullish view. Immediate support is seen at 1.4310 followed by 1.4250. Break below those area could trigger further downside pressure and lead us into no trading zone since the direction would be unclear.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
Unlike The Euro and Swiss Franc, the GBPUSD didn’t benefit from Dollar weakness on Friday. This is not a surprise for since the market disappointed by BoE decision to keep expanding the quantitative easing program to 200b Pound that would increasing pessimism on UK’s economy outlook.

Technically, beside a Doji on daily chart, on h1 chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in triangle area indicating a consolidation. The bias remains neutral in both nearest and medium term and I think it’s better to stay out for now. I prefer a downside scenario but if we see more optimism about the world economy recovery, the downside momentum could be very limited and Sterling might get some support. Immediate support is seen at 1.6417 (Friday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.4350. Initial resistance at 1.6620 – 1.6660 area.

gbpusdhourly


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 93.42 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 94.71 and closed at 94.37. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to the upside indicating bearish failure and potential bullish outlook. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 95.05 and 96.60 area. Immediate support is seen at 94.22.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a bearish momentum on Friday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair has break to the downside of the rectangle area indicating potential bearish scenario. However notice that Friday’s low at 1.0552 is considered as double bottom with August 03 low at 1.0560 so watch out for potential upside rebound. We need a consistent move below 1.0560 area to confirm the bearish scenario towards 1.0360 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0590 followed by 1.0650.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 132.89 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 135.45 and closed at 135.19. On h4 chart below we can see that the bearish channel has been violated to the upside indicating bearish failure and potential bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 136.40 and 137.45. Initial support at 134.85 followed by 134.20. Break below that area should take us into no trading zone.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made indecisive movement on Friday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 153.55 but whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 156.57 and close at 155.78. On h4 chart below we have triangle indicating consolidation with the price seems to testing the upper line of the triangle. Breakout to the upside should set up a bullish scenario towards 158.36 area. Immediate support at 155.90 followed by 155.50.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.8214 but whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 0.8395 and closed at 0.8346. On h4 chart below we have a bullish channel and the trendline resistance has been violated to the upside indicating potential bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.8450 – 0.8500 area. However CCI about to cross the 100 line down on h1 chart so watch out fo potential downside rebound testing 0.8330 – 0.8300 support area.

audusdh4


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Friday, August 21, 2009
Aug-21 Daily Forex Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the price still struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. Although able to move above the upper line of the bearish channel indicating potential upside pressure, we have no significant bullish momentum yet as the market seems to consolidating now. Beside, we have CCI divergence, as you can see on h1 chart below indicating that the price might still struggling to push back inside the bearish channel. I still prefer to stay out for now. Don’t rush jump into the market. Immediate resistance remains at 1.4270. Clear break above that area could trigger further upside momentum towards 1.4336. Initial support at 1.4150 followed by 1.4050.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6602 but further bullish momentum was limited, whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.6450 and closed at 1.6500. On h1 chart below we can see that the price still struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. We also have a triangle formation (yellow) indicating consolidation. I’ll keep stay out. Break from the triangle should give us clearer direction. I prefer a breakdown and bearish scenario but let the market decide the direction. Immediate resistance at 1.6602 and 1.6660. Break above 1.6660 should trigger further upside scenario towards 1.6750 area. Initial support at 1.6375. CCI in neutral area both on h1 and h4 chart.

gbpusdhourly


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday. The market seems to consolidating now. On h4 chart below we still have the bearish channel and I am expecting bearish continuation. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer bearish scenario targeting 93.25 area. However, I will pay attention to the 94.65 resistance area. Break above that area should diminish the bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone.

usdjpy4hchart



USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had a limited bearish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair still trapped in rectangle area (1.0940 – 1.0590). The bias is neutral in nearest term. My focus remains on the attempt on break the lower line of the rectangle around 1.0590 area. A breakdown to the downside should trigger further bearish momentum. However if the pair fail to break and bounce to the upside, expect upside momentum back towards 1.0750 resistance area.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 134.62 but closed a little bit lower at 134.19. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now testing the upper line of the bearish channel indicating critical technical phase. A violation to the upside of the bearish channel could be a potential threat to the current bearish outlook and trigger further bullish momentum at least towards 135.50 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line up on h4 chart indicating potential upside pressure. Immediate support at 133.70. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum and keep the bearish scenario intact. Don’t rush jump into the market.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we have a triangle inside of the bearish channel indicating consolidation but still in the context of a bearish scenario. Only violation to the bearish channel could be a potential threat to the bearish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term and I think it’s better to stay away for now and wait for further development. Immediate resistance at 156.66 area (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should be seen as bearish scenario failure. Initial support at 154.50 followed by 153.62.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that the price still struggling around the trendline support area. The bullish momentum seems limited right now, and we also have a rising wedge formation (yellow) so any bullish exhaustion and violation to the downside of the rising wedge should trigger a bearish momentum back towards 0.8174 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8350 – 0.8400 area.

audusdhourly

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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Aug-20 Daily Forex Forecast Trend and Analysis
by: Setyo Wibowo


EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4266 and closed at 1.4234. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is struggling around upper line of the bearish channel indicating a critical technical point. Surely the trendline support has been proved as a strong support preventing further bearish attack, but the upper line of the bearish channel, (which also a trendline resistance) still hold so far and not convincingly violated to the upside yet. From this perspective, actually we have no winner yet so don’t rush buying the Euro now. Immediate support at 1.4180/50 support area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4050 area. Initial resistance at 1.4270. Break above that area and consistent move above the trendline resistance (upper line of bearish channel) should trigger further upside pressure testing key level 1.4336 and could be a potential threat to my bearish reversal scenario.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6374 but whipsawed to the upside, closed higher at 1.6536. On h4 chart below we can see that the price is now testing the upper line of the bearish channel and 38.2% Fibo retracement area (of 1.7042 – 1.6274) around 1.6570. A violation to the upside of the bearish channel and consistent move above 1.6570 should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.6660 area (50% Fibo retracement of 1.7042 – 1.6274). As long as the pair stay below 1.6660 I still prefer a bearish scenario. UK economy outlook remains pessimistic and BoE decision to expand Quantitative Easing program can’t be too good for the Sterling. So any upside momentum should be very limited at this phase. I prefer to stay out for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.6470. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.6350

gbpusd4hchart



USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday, bottomed at 93.66 but closed a little bit higher at 94.06. On h4 chart below we still have a nice valid bearish channel indicating bearish scenario targeting 93.25 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 94.65 and 95.25 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF had bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0622 and closed at 1.0649. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.0590 but on daily chart below we can see that actually the pair is moving in rectangle area indicating consolidation (1.0940 – 1.0590). CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pullback testing 1.0750 resistance area. Given such facts, I prefer to stay out for now based on my bad risk-reward ratio. However, a valid break below 1.0590 area should trigger further bearish momentum and continue the bearish scenario towards 1.0360 area.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had indecisive movement yesterday formed ad Doji formation on daily chart. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 132.17 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 133.89. The bias is bullish in nearest term, but long position is not recommended at this phase. On daily chart below we still have a bearish channel indicating bearish view. So, I still prefer bearish scenario. Immediate support is seen at 133.50. Break below that area should trigger bearish momentum re-testing 132.17 area (yesterday’s low). Initial resistance at 135.75.

eurjpydaily

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 153.62 but bearish momentum seemed limited as the pair closed high at 155.53. On h1 chart below we still have a valid bearish channel indicating bearish view. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario today, re-testing 153.62 (yesterday’s low). Immediate resistance is seen at 155.95 followed by 156.90.

gbpjpyhourly

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8174 but whipsawed to the upside, topped at 0.8312 and closed at 0.8299. On h4 chart below we can see that the trendline support has been violated to the downside, but further downside scenario was rejected by 38.2% Fibo retracement (of 0.7700 – 0.8476) support around 0.8180 area and now traded higher around the trendline. I think we are in no trading zone now but as long as the pair able to stay below the trendline resistance, I prefer a downside scenario. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.8330/50 area. Initial support at 0.8230.

audusdh4

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