Jan-12 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-11 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-06 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-05 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Jan-04 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-24 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis





February 2007 March 2007 September 2007 November 2007 December 2007 February 2008 May 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011




Easy-Forex
Master-Forex
Forex-Factory
Forex-tsd
ForexYard
Forex Education
Marketiva
OnLine Forex



Blogger

FinalSense

Amazon

Yahoo

Ebay



Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Dollar Appreciation-There Are Good Reasons For To Happen

Good arguments can easily be made for the U.S. having a weak dollar. Asset markets tend to appreciate strongly when investors are convinced that cash is a bad investment, and multinational corporations can better compete on price when selling their goods and services abroad (to say nothing of the currency gains made when foreign profits are repatriated).

Depreciating the dollar was an essential tool in the Fed’s war on deflation, a far more insidious and dangerous problem than inflation. Falling asset values (in housing and 401k’s) are death to consumer confidence and spending. True, a 10% unemployment rate doesn’t help the situation either, but the point is that when deflation is rearing its ugly head even people who have jobs tend not to spend.

Certainly, the Fed’s weak dollar policy has helped turn the economy back on the road to expansion. But some very good reasons also exist to have the dollar relatively strong.

Officially, it is the purview of the Treasury (and the President) to establish a dollar “policy.” The Fed, under the vast majority of circumstances, tends to not comment directly on the dollar at all. The policy of the U.S. is to have a “strong” dollar, one which trades on the open market and whose price is driven by fundamentals and investor sentiment. So, as the fundamentals for the U.S. improve, investors should bid up its price without fear of interference from government intervention.

The U.S. is going to run about a $1.4 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2010 (which began in September) and it’s going to need foreign investors to continue their purchases of Treasuries. This will be especially true now because the Fed, which bought about $700 billion of debt in fiscal 2009, will no longer be a player in this market. That’s a huge void which will need to be filled.

The problem is that investors will not have confidence in U.S. debt if the dollar keeps depreciating as the fundamentals improve. In fact, the U.S. would lose an enormous amount of credibility if that were to happen. Think of the situation from the lender’s point of view and you’ll see what I mean.

If you’re a foreigner, who eventually will need to repatriate, would you lend (which means buying Treasuries) if you were convinced that no matter how well the U.S. economy did you would lose money when you had to exchange your dollars back into your home currency? I think not.

True, there are ways to hedge with currency forwards and interest rate swaps, but these operations don’t always work and they’re expensive to administrate.

Left unchecked, a weak dollar tends to be inflationary since pretty much everything is priced in them. And as they depreciate, those things obviously become more expensive.

So, it’s important for the U.S. to maintain credibility, especially as huge budget deficits are likely to be with us at least through the new decade. We’ll need to have plenty of foreign interest for U.S. debt issuances and with the Fed out of the picture as a buyer (at least for now), an appreciating dollar following a healthy expansion (being priced by the fundamentals) will be an essential tool in maintaining trust and confidence that official U.S. policy is to be believed in.

Labels:

Dec-30 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4457 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4331 and closed at 1.4353. On h4 chart below we can see that was a case of a false breakout from 1.4420 – 1.4250 range area which usually trigger significant bearish momentum, at least testing 1.4250 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4170 – 1.4130 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4420 – 1.4450 area.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.5867 and closed at 1.5900. The fact that price is now moving consistently below 1.5920 support area should trigger further weakness for the Sterling targeting 1.5800 – 1.5750 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5920 (former support). Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest term but overall the sentiment should remains bearish for this pair and I am in short mode. Long position is not recommended at this phase.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that we are still in an uptrend as price still move inside the bullish channel without serious threat so far with the trendline resistance (red) area as potential area to be tested by current bullish momentum. However note that we seem to have good resistance around 92.30 – 92.50 area. We need a consistent move above that area to continue the bullish momentum at least towards 93.00 today. Immediate support at 91.50. I am in buy mode for this pair and short position is not recommended.


USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the lower line of the bullish channel, bottomed at 1.0278 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.0362. On daily chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakdown from the bullish channel. Although overall this pair is still consolidating, this fact should trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.0450 area today. Immediate support at 1.0330.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 132.59 but the bullish momentum was limited as price closed lower at 132.04. However, the fact that price so far able to stay above 131.75 area should lead us into a new phase of bullish scenario targeting 133.50 area. 131.75 area seems to be a good place for long position with tight stop loss below that level . Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio. Break below 131.75 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in range area of 145.65 – 146.85 area. If you notice, I have made some adjustment to my trendline support. For me as long as the pair stay above 145.65 area I still prefer a bullish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above my minor terndline resistance (blue), topped at 0.8991 but bullish momentum was stopped by major trendline resistance (red) and traded around 0.8928 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact bring me to a conclusion that the bullish correction should be over now and price should continue to move in its bigger trend, bearish at least targeting 0.8850 area. Only break above the major trendline resistance should be seen as serious threat to the major bearish scenario.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Dec-29 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in only small range of 60 pips. On h4 chart below we can see that after the bearish scenario was interrupted by violation to the bearish channel, price seems to consolidating in a range area with 1.4420 area as a key resistance level and 1.4250 as key support level at this phase. The bias remains neutral and we need a valid break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.4420 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4585 while break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.4170 – 1.4127. We will have US consumer confidence data today which expected to be the market mover which can take us out from this ranging market and give clearer direction. A better than expected number should be good for the Dollar while a worse than expected number should weaken the Dollar.


GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.6014 and closed at 1.5999. However, as you can see on my h4 chart below, actually this pair is still consolidating, indicated by rectangle formation. So basically, the movement is still indecisive and as long as price stay below 1.6050, I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break above 1.6050 should trigger further bullish momentum testing the upper line of the bearish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5920. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5850 – 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY made another indecisive market, made another Doji on daily chart. Price is consolidating within an ascending triangle as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating the pressure should be more to the upside, especially if price breakout above the triangle targeting 92.32 even 93.30 area. On the downside, key support level remains at 90.80. As long as price stay above that area, I still prefer a bullish scenario.


USDCHF Forecast

Similar to other major pairs, the USDCHF was indecisive yesterday in a thin market indicating consolidation. The bias should remains neutral in nearest term. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the bullish channel. Violation to the bullish channel should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook. Key resistance level remains at 1.0450 area. Another break above that area should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700.


EURJPY Forecast

The EURJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price is now attempting to push higher above 131.75 area, but never really able to move convincingly above that level so far. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle after some bullish momentum indicating potential bullish continuation scenario especially if we have a valid breakout above the triangle, which is also above 131.75 area targeting 132.70 even 133.50 area. However if this bullish ascending triangle fails and price violate the triangle to the downside, price should significantly fall testing 130.90 and 130.05 area. I am expecting to see a valid break from the triangle area to see clearer direction, then just follow it.

GBPJPY Forecast

The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.66 and closed at 146.58. This fact should keep the bullish scenario intact, but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 149.05 area. On the downside, key support area is seen around the trendline support (blue). Break below that trendline support should be seen as serious threat to the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 146.00 – 145.80 area.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD had a significant technical movement yesterday by break above 0.8850 area. The bearish scenario is clearly in a serious threat. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish momentum found a resistance at the minor trendline resistance (blue). We need a break above that trendline to confirm the bullish scenario targeting 0.9020. Another movement below 0.8850 could be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish momentum re-testing 0.8733 area.

Labels: , , , , , ,

Monday, December 28, 2009
Dec-28 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:
The EURUSD attempted to push higher on Thursday, topped at 1.4417 but closed lower at 1.4353. This fact lead me to a conclusion that price might be in consolidation phase. It’s too early for bullish scenario, but the bearish scenario is not over yet, not until we have consistent move above 1.4420 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4585 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.4250 area. Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario testing 1.4170 – 1.4127 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD made another indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains neutral in nearest term. However the fact that price still able to stay below 1.6050 area so far should keep the bearish scenario intact with technical target remains around 1.5800 area and I still prefer a bearish scenario. Only break above 1.6050 could be seen as serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.5920 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.5850 – 1.5800 area.


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY made indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price stay above 90.80 area, I still prefer a bullish scenario at least towards 92.32 area. Only break below 90.80 area and the trendline support (blue) should be seen as potential bullish failure bullish which could produce significant bearish momentum.


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF attempted to push lower on Thursday, bottomed at 1.0319 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price closed higher at 1.0387. This fact lead me to a no trading zone. The false breakout from 1.0450 area should trigger significant bearish momentum testing 1.0230 area but so far the bearish momentum also seems very limited. I will stand aside and wait for further development. Expected range at 1.0450 – 1.0230.


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its moderate bullish momentum on Thursday, topped at 131.86 but still unable to close convincingly above 131.75 area. The bullish scenario should remains intact but a failure to move consistently above 131.75 area and a break below 131.05 support area today should be seen as a false breakout which could trigger further bearish momentum towards 130.05 area. Consistent move above 131.75 should continue the bullish scenario at least towards 132.50 area.

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY made indecisive movement on Thursday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving near the trendline support area. Since overall the bullish scenario remains intact, I think we have a good technical set up to place a long position around the trendline support area with tight stop loss below it targeting least 146.80 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.50. Break below that area could be seen as potential bullish failure and trigger further bearish momentum towards 144.85 area.

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD continued its bullish correction on Thursday, topped at 0.8859 and closed at 0.8839. The bearish scenario is in serious threat, but should remains intact. I think we have potential trading opportunity at this phase. Long position if we have a consistent move above 0.8850 (bearish failure) area targeting 0.8950 or a short position below 0.8800 area (bearish intact) targeting 0.8650. I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Dec-23 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Slipped below 1.4250, targeting 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 - 1.5143

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4331 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, break below 1.4250, bottomed at 1.4216 and closed at 1.4253. Looks like the double bottom support failed to prevent the bearish pressure a this phase. This fact should lead us to further bearish scenario with technical target at 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2456 – 1.5143 around 1.4127 area which is a key support level from longer term point of view. Break below 1.4127 should be a potential threat to the long term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance at 1.4300 – 1.4330 area. We have seen a very strong bearish momentum this month with no sign of significant upside correction.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, break below psychological level 1.6000, bottomed at 1.5920 and closed at 1.5958. Like I said yesterday, break below 1.6000 area should lead us to further bearish scenario at least targeting 1.5800 this week as the pair is now enter a new phase of bearish scenario. Immediate resistance at 1.6000 – 1.6050 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.85 and closed at 91.81. The bias remains to the upside targeting 92.32 area. On my h4 chart below we can see that price had a nice bullish momentum after break above 90.80 area without significant bearish correction indicating strong bullish momentum. Immediate support at 91.50 area. Break above 92.32 area should trigger further bullish momentum at least towards 93.30 this week.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but the fact that price so far able to stay above 1.0450 should keep the bullish scenario intact with target at least around 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700 area. I don’t see significant bearish correction signal so far, so I am expecting further bullish continuation at this phase. Another movement below 1.0450 area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term as market might consolidate but overall the bias remains to the upside.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 131.06 and closed at 130.86. The bias should remains to the upside targeting 131.75. However CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart so watch out for potential bearish correction testing 130.05 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction testing 129.00 area but that will lead me into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Overall the pressure remains to the upside but as you can see on my h4 chart below price still struggling around 146.80 area indicating bullish paused and consolidation. We need a consistent move above 146.80 to continue the bullish scenario towards 148.50 this week. Immediate support 145.90 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish correction but as long as price move above the trendline support (red) I still prefer a bullish scenario.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8741 and closed at 0.8748. The bias should remains to the downside. I believe, after break below 0.8850 area this pair should continue the bearish momentum at least targeting 0.8650 area before testing key support level around 0.8500 area this month. Immediate resistance at 0.8800 – 0.8850. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction but as long as the trendline resistance (blue) hold, I still prefer a bearish scenario for this pair.

audusddaily

Labels: , , , , , ,

Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Dec-22 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish continues, re-testing double bottom support around 1.4250/60 area

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4372 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price closed lower at 1.4273. This fact should keep the pressure on Euro re-testing 1.4250/60 support area today. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4172 – 1.4127 area today but we need consistent move below 1.4250/60 to continue the bearish scenario since we seems to have a double bottom support around that area as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.4350/70 area followed by 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Break above 1.4450 area should be seen as potential threat to the bearish outlook.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6027 and closed at 1.6044 but has not convincingly stay below 1.6040/50 so far. The bias remains to the downside but I think price need to move consistently below 1.6040 – 1.6000 area to continue the bearish scenario towards 1.5800 area. We are at critical phase. Immediate resistance at 1.6100 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended at this phase.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY continue its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.22 and closed at 91.15. On my h4 chart below we can see that price is convincingly move above 90.70/80 area indicating potential further bullishness targeting 92.32 area. Immediate support at 90.70/80 area. Break below that area should be seen as a false breakout and could trigger significant bearish momentum.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0481 and closed at 1.0459. The bias remains to the upside targeting 1.0530 before aim for 1.0700 area but we need consistent move above 1.0450 area to continue the bullish scenario. Another movement below 1.0450 area should lead us into no trading zone but short position is not recommended at this phase.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 130.36 and closed at 130.11. On h4 chart below we can see that overall price still trapped in range area of 129.00 – 131.75 area but price slipped above my minor trendline resistance (now support) indicating the pressure is more to the upside now targeting 131.75 area. A good technical set up and risk-reward ratio for me with stop loss below the trendline.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.46 and closed at 146.25. Overall price still trapped in range area of 144.85 – 146.80 but the pressure should remains to the upside. However we need a valid break above 146.80 area to continue the bullish scenario targeting 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.45 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 144.85 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continue its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8782 and closed at 0.8800. The bias remains bearish in nearest term targeting 0.8650 area. Immediate resistance at 0.8850 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but long position is not recommended at this phase. I prefer short on rallies strategy.

audusdh4

Labels: , , , , , ,

Monday, December 21, 2009
Dec-21 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: 1.4250 support area hold, technical bearish remains intact

The EURUSD made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4260 but closed higher at 1.4336. The rejection to move below key support level 1.4250 was not a surprise for me. It was a “normal” upside correction on weekend after a significant bearish week, and overall the bearish scenario still in control, reflected on the bearish channel (red channel) as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.4170 – 1.4127 area, which is an important support area in longer term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

eurusd4hchart


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD also made indecisive movement on Friday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias remains to the downside but like I said on Friday, 1.6100 – 1.6040 area is a potential strong support area. We are in critical technical phase now. Break below 1.6040 area should trigger further bearish momentum at least testing 1.6000 psychological level and potentially lead us into a new bearish phase with 1.5800 as potential bearish target in longer term. Immediate resistance at 1.6170 followed by 1.6250 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 88.90 but failed to break below 88.80 key support area and whipsawed to the upside, closed significantly higher at 90.47. On h4 chart below we can see that it was a case of a false breakdown from my trendline supports (red, blue) which could trigger significant bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact. I am in a buy mode but the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need consistent movement above 90.70/80 area to continue bullish towards 91.31 even 92.30 area. Immediate support at 90.10. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but as long as price move above the blue trendline support, I still prefer a bullish scenario.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement on Friday. Price failed to consistently move above 1.0450 area and closed lower at 1.0424. This can be seen as a false breakout which could trigger significant bearish correction at this phase, but since that happened on a Friday when people may just taking profit on the weekend, the false breakout strategy may not valid this time. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall the bullish scenario should remains intact. Immediate support at 1.0350. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0230 and should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
My decision to stand aside on Friday saved me from a losing trade as this pair was technically a mess. The pair failed to continue its bearish momentum, topped at 130.00 and closed at 129.69. I think I will keep stay away from this pair as I can not see clear direction. Aggressive traders may place a long position around 129.00 support area with tight stop loss below it targeting 130.70.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a volatile movement on Friday. Generally price had a bullish momentum after the false breakdown as you can see on h4 chart below. I do not like a high volatile market since for me it indicates a relative equal bullish and bearish power which give me only 50-50 probability. However technically the bullish scenario should remains intact and I prefer a bullish scenario with 146.80 as the nearest target. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and take us into new bullish phase targeting 148.50 area. On the downside 144.85 and the trendline support area should be a key support level at this phase. Consistent movement below the trendline should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure at least re-testing 143.75 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 0.8809 but closed higher at 0.8897. I think this was a normal upside pullback. On h4 chart below we can see that price is able to stay below key level 0.8915 indicating potential bearish continuation at least targeting 0.8750 area. Break above 0.8915 area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the bearish scenario should remains in control and long position is not recommended at this phase.

audusdh4

Labels: , , , , , ,

Friday, December 18, 2009
Dec-18 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Next target at 1.4250, CCI divergence and potential profit taking on Friday might produce upside correction

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4303 and closed at 1.4348 after break below 1.4500. The bias remains to the downside targeting at least 1.4250. However, as you can see on my daily chart below we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.4450 resistance area, but long position is not recommended at this phase. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.4170 area and potentially testing 1.4000 support area in longer term point of view.

eurusddaily


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.6078 and closed at 1.6162. The bias is more to the downside now. We seem to have a good historical support around 1.6100 – 1.6040 area. On daily chart below we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.6250 resistance area. Consistent move below 1.6100 – 1.6040 area should trigger further bearish pressure testing psychological level 1.6000 before technically targeting 1.5800 in longer term point of view.

gbpusddaily


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday, break below two trendline supports (blue, yellow) as you can see on my h4 chart below, but found support around 88.80 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term since we are in critical technical point and this fact should be seen as serious threat to the bullish outlook. Consistent move below those trendlines and below 88.80 area should be seen as bullish failure at least testing 87.35 area. Resistance is seen at 90.40/70 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0507 but corrected significantly earlier today in Asian session traded around 1.0420 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias should remains to the upside but we have CCI divergence indicating potential upside minor correction and potential profit taking activity on Friday testing 1.0380 – 1.0320 area. We need consistent movement above 1.0450 area to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.0700.

usdchfdaily


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below two trendline supports (blue, red). This fact should be seen as bullish failure and a bearish reversal scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 126.86 area but we have potential hammer formation as you can see on my h4 chart below, indicating potential upside correction. The candle is not complete yet at the time I wrote this comment. Immediate resistance at 129.00 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone. I think I will stand aside for now.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bearish momentum after failed to move consistently above 146.80 area, bottomed at 144.64, closed at 145.27. Price attempted to push lower, hit 143.74 earlier today in Asian session but further bearish pressure was rejected, traded around 144.85 area at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we can see that price made a false breakdown from the trendline support (red) which potentially trigger upside momentum and the bullish scenario should remains intact especially if price able to break above 144.85 re-testing 146.80 area.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8845 and closed at 0.8868. Price attempted to push lower earlier today in Asian session, hit 0.8809 but further bearish momentum was limited as price rebound higher around 0.8874 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias should remains bearish testing 0.8750 even 0.8500 in longer term point of view but CCI about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside correction testing 0.8915 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but overall the pressure is more to the downside at this phase.

audusdh4

Labels: , , , , , ,

Thursday, December 17, 2009
Dec-17 Daily Forex Forecast and Trend Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Good Eurozone economic data failed to bring Euro higher, technical bearish should continue

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4589 after some good results of manufacturing and services PMI data, but further bullish momentum was rejected as the pair closed lower at 1.4529. This fact should keep my bearish scenario targeting 1.4450 and 1.4250 this week remains intact. On h1 chart below we can see that price still trapped in a range area of 1.4585 – 1.4500 area indicating consolidation but the bias remains to the downside. We need a consistent move below 1.4500 area to continue bearish momentum towards 1.4450 – 1.4400 area today. Immediate resistance at 1.4589 area (yesterday’s high) and the trendline resistance area (red). Break above those area could be a threat to my bearish scenario and lead us into no trading zone.

eurusdhourly


GBPUSD Forecast:
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum after breakout above the triangle yesterday as you can see in my h4 below, topped at 1.6410 but failed to consistently move above 1.6400 area and closed lower at 1.6324. Although this fact lead us into no trading area in nearest term, I still prefer a bearish scenario and it is clearly too early for a bullish reversal scenario. For me, only a consistent move above 1.6400 could be a serious threat to my bearish scenario and break above the trendline resistance (red) should confirm the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.6250 followed by 1.6200. Break below those area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.6113 area.

gbpusd4hchart


USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, moved in small range with only 60 pips movement. However as you can see on my h4 chart below, the fact that price is able to stay above the trendline support (yellow, former resistance) indicating the pressure is still to the upside targeting 90.70 area. Only a movement back below the trendline support should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish pressure back towards 88.80 area.

usdjpy4hchart


USDCHF Forecast
The USDCHF bullish momentum was paused yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that 1.0450 area is an important resistance area. In October 01, price had a bearish momentum after failed to break above 1.0450 then hit the low at 0.9913 on November 26. Of course, the situation is different now since this time price has violated the major trendline resistance (red) to the upside so the upside pressure should be stronger this time. However, the bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a consistent move above the 1.0450 area to confirm further bullish scenario with a new range of 1.0450 – 1.0700 area. Only break below 1.0230 could be considered as potential threat to the bullish scenario.

usdchf4hchart


EURJPY Forecast
The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday indicating consolidation. However, as you can see on h4 chart below, price still move above the trendline support (blue) indicating the pressure is still more to the upside with 131.75 as the nearest bullish target. I think we are in a good place to place a long position with tight stop loss below the trendline support. Good technical set up and risk-reward ratio.

eurjpyh4

GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 146.91 and closed at 146.60. This fact should keep my bullish scenario intact but we need a consistent move above 146.80 area to confirm bullish scenario towards 147.60 and 148.50 area. Immediate support at 145.60 followed by 144.85. Only break below 144.85 should be seen as potential threat to my bullish outlook.

gbpjpyh4

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.8954 but closed higher at 0.8999 after rejected to move above the trendline resistance area, as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish targeting 0.8915 area. Immediate resistance at 0.9030. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

audusdh4

Labels: , , , , , ,